Articles | Volume 21, issue 7
https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-21-3915-2017
© Author(s) 2017. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 License.
Special issue:
https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-21-3915-2017
© Author(s) 2017. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 License.
An intercomparison of approaches for improving operational seasonal streamflow forecasts
Pablo A. Mendoza
CORRESPONDING AUTHOR
Hydrometeorological Applications Program, National Center for
Atmospheric Research, Boulder, CO, USA
now at: Advanced Mining Technology Center (AMTC), Universidad de
Chile, Santiago, Chile
Andrew W. Wood
Hydrometeorological Applications Program, National Center for
Atmospheric Research, Boulder, CO, USA
Elizabeth Clark
Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering, University of
Washington, Seattle, WA, USA
Eric Rothwell
Bureau of Reclamation, Boise, ID, USA
Martyn P. Clark
Hydrometeorological Applications Program, National Center for
Atmospheric Research, Boulder, CO, USA
Bart Nijssen
Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering, University of
Washington, Seattle, WA, USA
Levi D. Brekke
Bureau of Reclamation, Denver, CO, USA
Jeffrey R. Arnold
Climate Preparedness and Resilience Programs, US Army Corps of
Engineers, Seattle, WA, USA
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49 citations as recorded by crossref.
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- Predictive performance of ensemble hydroclimatic forecasts: Verification metrics, diagnostic plots and forecast attributes Z. Huang & T. Zhao 10.1002/wat2.1580
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- Assessing different roles of baseflow and surface runoff for long-term streamflow forecasting in southeastern China H. Chen et al. 10.1080/02626667.2021.1988612
- Assessment of the ability of the standardized precipitation evapotranspiration index (SPEI) to model historical streamflow in watersheds of Western Canada S. Gurrapu et al. 10.1080/07011784.2021.1896390
- Seasonal Drought Prediction: Advances, Challenges, and Future Prospects Z. Hao et al. 10.1002/2016RG000549
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- Subseasonal to seasonal streamflow forecasting in a semiarid watershed P. Broxton et al. 10.1111/1752-1688.13147
- Controls of Variability in the Laurentian Great Lakes Terrestrial Water Budget S. Minallah et al. 10.1029/2022WR033759
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- Multi‐temporal Hydrological Residual Error Modeling for Seamless Subseasonal Streamflow Forecasting D. McInerney et al. 10.1029/2019WR026979
- EMDNA: an Ensemble Meteorological Dataset for North America G. Tang et al. 10.5194/essd-13-3337-2021
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- Study of teleconnection between hydrological variables and climatological variables in a headwater basin of the Maipo River for forecast model application J. Montalva et al. 10.24850/j-tyca-16-4-3
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- Evaluation of Subseasonal-to-Seasonal (S2S) precipitation forecast from the North American Multi-Model ensemble phase II (NMME-2) over the contiguous U.S. L. Zhang et al. 10.1016/j.jhydrol.2021.127058
- A hybrid framework for forecasting monthly reservoir inflow based on machine learning techniques with dynamic climate forecasts, satellite-based data, and climate phenomenon information D. Tian et al. 10.1007/s00477-021-02023-y
- Developing Subseasonal to Seasonal Climate Forecast Products for Hydrology and Water Management S. Baker et al. 10.1111/1752-1688.12746
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- Ensemble flood forecasting: Current status and future opportunities W. Wu et al. 10.1002/wat2.1432
- Mitigating the Impacts of Climate Nonstationarity on Seasonal Streamflow Predictability in the U.S. Southwest F. Lehner et al. 10.1002/2017GL076043
- An Efficient Approach for Estimating Streamflow Forecast Skill Elasticity L. Arnal et al. 10.1175/JHM-D-16-0259.1
47 citations as recorded by crossref.
- Enhancing Ensemble Seasonal Streamflow Forecasts in the Upper Colorado River Basin Using Multi‐Model Climate Forecasts S. Baker et al. 10.1111/1752-1688.12960
- Predictive performance of ensemble hydroclimatic forecasts: Verification metrics, diagnostic plots and forecast attributes Z. Huang & T. Zhao 10.1002/wat2.1580
- Choosing between post-processing precipitation forecasts or chaining several uncertainty quantification tools in hydrological forecasting systems E. Valdez et al. 10.5194/hess-26-197-2022
- Evaluating post-processing approaches for monthly and seasonal streamflow forecasts F. Woldemeskel et al. 10.5194/hess-22-6257-2018
- Seasonal discharge forecasting for the Upper Danube I. Martin Santos et al. 10.1016/j.ejrh.2021.100905
- Skilful seasonal forecasts of streamflow over Europe? L. Arnal et al. 10.5194/hess-22-2057-2018
- Seasonal streamflow forecasts in the Ahlergaarde catchment, Denmark: the effect of preprocessing and post-processing on skill and statistical consistency D. Lucatero et al. 10.5194/hess-22-3601-2018
- Attributing correlation skill of dynamical GCM precipitation forecasts to statistical ENSO teleconnection using a set-theory-based approach T. Zhao et al. 10.5194/hess-25-5717-2021
- Exploring the use of seasonal forecasts to adapt flood insurance premiums V. Nguyen et al. 10.5194/nhess-24-2923-2024
- Multi-Model Approaches for Improving Seasonal Ensemble Streamflow Prediction Scheme with Various Statistical Post-Processing Techniques in the Canadian Prairie Region A. Muhammad et al. 10.3390/w10111604
- Assessing different roles of baseflow and surface runoff for long-term streamflow forecasting in southeastern China H. Chen et al. 10.1080/02626667.2021.1988612
- Assessment of the ability of the standardized precipitation evapotranspiration index (SPEI) to model historical streamflow in watersheds of Western Canada S. Gurrapu et al. 10.1080/07011784.2021.1896390
- Seasonal Drought Prediction: Advances, Challenges, and Future Prospects Z. Hao et al. 10.1002/2016RG000549
- Long-term ensemble forecast of snowmelt inflow into the Cheboksary Reservoir under two different weather scenarios A. Gelfan et al. 10.5194/hess-22-2073-2018
- GPEP v1.0: the Geospatial Probabilistic Estimation Package to support Earth science applications G. Tang et al. 10.5194/gmd-17-1153-2024
- On the decadal predictability of the frequency of flood events across the U.S. Midwest A. Neri et al. 10.1002/joc.5915
- Enhancing the Predictability of Seasonal Streamflow With a Statistical‐Dynamical Approach L. Slater & G. Villarini 10.1029/2018GL077945
- Subseasonal to seasonal streamflow forecasting in a semiarid watershed P. Broxton et al. 10.1111/1752-1688.13147
- Controls of Variability in the Laurentian Great Lakes Terrestrial Water Budget S. Minallah et al. 10.1029/2022WR033759
- Exploratory studies into seasonal flow forecasting potential for large lakes K. Sene et al. 10.5194/hess-22-127-2018
- Seasonal flow forecasting in Africa; exploratory studies for large lakes K. Sene & W. Tych 10.5194/piahs-384-289-2021
- Towards robust seasonal streamflow forecasts in mountainous catchments: impact of calibration metric selection in hydrological modeling D. Araya et al. 10.5194/hess-27-4385-2023
- Hydrological drought forecasts outperform meteorological drought forecasts S. Sutanto et al. 10.1088/1748-9326/ab8b13
- Augmenting geophysical interpretation of data-driven operational water supply forecast modeling for a western US river using a hybrid machine learning approach S. Fleming et al. 10.1016/j.jhydrol.2021.126327
- Hybrid forecasting: blending climate predictions with AI models L. Slater et al. 10.5194/hess-27-1865-2023
- Analysis of the effects of biases in ensemble streamflow prediction (ESP) forecasts on electricity production in hydropower reservoir management R. Arsenault & P. Côté 10.5194/hess-23-2735-2019
- Assessing the new Natural Resources Conservation Service water supply forecast model for the American West: A challenging test of explainable, automated, ensemble artificial intelligence S. Fleming et al. 10.1016/j.jhydrol.2021.126782
- Multi‐temporal Hydrological Residual Error Modeling for Seamless Subseasonal Streamflow Forecasting D. McInerney et al. 10.1029/2019WR026979
- EMDNA: an Ensemble Meteorological Dataset for North America G. Tang et al. 10.5194/essd-13-3337-2021
- Differing roles of base and fast flow in ensemble seasonal streamflow forecasting: An experimental investigation Z. Huang et al. 10.1016/j.jhydrol.2020.125272
- What Are the Key Drivers Controlling the Quality of Seasonal Streamflow Forecasts? I. Pechlivanidis et al. 10.1029/2019WR026987
- Seamless streamflow forecasting at daily to monthly scales: MuTHRE lets you have your cake and eat it too D. McInerney et al. 10.5194/hess-26-5669-2022
- Application of Postprocessing to Watershed-Scale Subseasonal Climate Forecasts over the Contiguous United States S. Baker et al. 10.1175/JHM-D-19-0155.1
- The role of probabilistic precipitation forecasts in hydrologic predictability S. Seo & J. Sung 10.1007/s00704-020-03273-6
- Alignment between water inputs and vegetation green‐up reduces next year's runoff efficiency S. Newcomb et al. 10.1002/hyp.15211
- A Clustering Preprocessing Framework for the Subannual Calibration of a Hydrological Model Considering Climate‐Land Surface Variations T. Lan et al. 10.1029/2018WR023160
- Benchmark decadal forecast skill for terrestrial water storage estimated by an elasticity framework E. Zhu et al. 10.1038/s41467-019-09245-3
- Streamflow drought: implication of drought definitions and its application for drought forecasting S. Sutanto & H. Van Lanen 10.5194/hess-25-3991-2021
- FROSTBYTE: a reproducible data-driven workflow for probabilistic seasonal streamflow forecasting in snow-fed river basins across North America L. Arnal et al. 10.5194/hess-28-4127-2024
- Generating Ensemble Streamflow Forecasts: A Review of Methods and Approaches Over the Past 40 Years M. Troin et al. 10.1029/2020WR028392
- Study of teleconnection between hydrological variables and climatological variables in a headwater basin of the Maipo River for forecast model application J. Montalva et al. 10.24850/j-tyca-16-4-3
- Assessment of Future Risks of Seasonal Municipal Water Shortages Across North America J. Janssen et al. 10.3389/feart.2021.730631
- Evaluation of Subseasonal-to-Seasonal (S2S) precipitation forecast from the North American Multi-Model ensemble phase II (NMME-2) over the contiguous U.S. L. Zhang et al. 10.1016/j.jhydrol.2021.127058
- A hybrid framework for forecasting monthly reservoir inflow based on machine learning techniques with dynamic climate forecasts, satellite-based data, and climate phenomenon information D. Tian et al. 10.1007/s00477-021-02023-y
- Developing Subseasonal to Seasonal Climate Forecast Products for Hydrology and Water Management S. Baker et al. 10.1111/1752-1688.12746
- Seasonal hydroclimatic ensemble forecasts anticipate nutrient and suspended sediment loads using a dynamical-statistical approach S. Sharma et al. 10.1088/1748-9326/ab2c26
- Ensemble flood forecasting: Current status and future opportunities W. Wu et al. 10.1002/wat2.1432
Latest update: 10 Nov 2024
Short summary
Water supply forecasts are critical to support water resources operations and planning. The skill of such forecasts depends on our knowledge of (i) future meteorological conditions and (ii) the amount of water stored in a basin. We address this problem by testing several approaches that make use of these sources of predictability, either separately or in a combined fashion. The main goal is to understand the marginal benefits of both information and methodological complexity in forecast skill.
Water supply forecasts are critical to support water resources operations and planning. The...
Special issue