Articles | Volume 21, issue 1
https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-21-133-2017
© Author(s) 2017. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 License.
https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-21-133-2017
© Author(s) 2017. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 License.
Planning for climate change impacts on hydropower in the Far North
Jessica E. Cherry
CORRESPONDING AUTHOR
International Arctic Research Center and Institute of Northern
Engineering, University of Alaska Fairbanks, Fairbanks, Alaska 99775, USA
Corrie Knapp
Department of Environment & Sustainability, Western State Colorado
University, Gunnison, Colorado 81231, USA
Sarah Trainor
Alaska Center for Climate Assessment and Policy, University of Alaska
Fairbanks, Fairbanks, Alaska 99775, USA
Andrea J. Ray
Earth System Research Laboratory-Physical Sciences Division, National
Oceanographic and Atmospheric Administration, Boulder, Colorado 80305, USA
Molly Tedesche
International Arctic Research Center, University of Alaska Fairbanks,
Fairbanks, Alaska 99775, USA
Susan Walker
National Oceanographic and Atmospheric Administration-National Marine
Fisheries Service, Juneau, Alaska 99801, USA
Related authors
Christopher D. Arp, Jessica E. Cherry, Dana R. N. Brown, Allen C. Bondurant, and Karen L. Endres
The Cryosphere, 14, 3595–3609, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-14-3595-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-14-3595-2020, 2020
Short summary
Short summary
River and lake ice thickens at varying rates geographically and from year to year. We took a closer look at ice growth across a large geographic region experiencing rapid climate change, the State of Alaska, USA. Slower ice growth was most pronounced in northern Alaskan lakes over the last 60 years. Western and interior Alaska ice showed more variability in thickness and safe travel duration. This analysis provides a comprehensive evaluation of changing freshwater ice in Alaska.
Katrina E. Bennett, Jessica E. Cherry, Ben Balk, and Scott Lindsey
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 2439–2459, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-23-2439-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-23-2439-2019, 2019
Short summary
Short summary
Remotely sensed snow observations may improve operational streamflow forecasting in remote regions, such as Alaska. In this study, we insert remotely sensed observations of snow extent into the operational framework employed by the US National Weather Service’s Alaska Pacific River Forecast Center. Our work indicates that the snow observations can improve snow estimates and streamflow forecasting. This work provides direction for forecasters to implement remote sensing in their operations.
R. L. Herman, J. E. Cherry, J. Young, J. M. Welker, D. Noone, S. S. Kulawik, and J. Worden
Atmos. Meas. Tech., 7, 3127–3138, https://doi.org/10.5194/amt-7-3127-2014, https://doi.org/10.5194/amt-7-3127-2014, 2014
Molly E. Tedesche, Erin D. Trochim, Steven R. Fassnacht, and Gabriel J. Wolken
The Cryosphere Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-2022-143, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-2022-143, 2022
Publication in TC not foreseen
Short summary
Short summary
Perennial snowfields in the Brooks Range of Alaska are critical for the ecosystem and provide caribou habitat. Caribou are a crucial food source for rural hunters. The purpose of this research is to map perennial snowfield extents using several remote sensing techniques with Sentinel-1 and 2. These include analysis of Synthetic Aperture Radar backscatter change and of optical satellite imagery. Results are compared with field data and appear to effectively detect perennial snowfield locations.
Christopher D. Arp, Jessica E. Cherry, Dana R. N. Brown, Allen C. Bondurant, and Karen L. Endres
The Cryosphere, 14, 3595–3609, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-14-3595-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-14-3595-2020, 2020
Short summary
Short summary
River and lake ice thickens at varying rates geographically and from year to year. We took a closer look at ice growth across a large geographic region experiencing rapid climate change, the State of Alaska, USA. Slower ice growth was most pronounced in northern Alaskan lakes over the last 60 years. Western and interior Alaska ice showed more variability in thickness and safe travel duration. This analysis provides a comprehensive evaluation of changing freshwater ice in Alaska.
Katrina E. Bennett, Jessica E. Cherry, Ben Balk, and Scott Lindsey
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 2439–2459, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-23-2439-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-23-2439-2019, 2019
Short summary
Short summary
Remotely sensed snow observations may improve operational streamflow forecasting in remote regions, such as Alaska. In this study, we insert remotely sensed observations of snow extent into the operational framework employed by the US National Weather Service’s Alaska Pacific River Forecast Center. Our work indicates that the snow observations can improve snow estimates and streamflow forecasting. This work provides direction for forecasters to implement remote sensing in their operations.
R. L. Herman, J. E. Cherry, J. Young, J. M. Welker, D. Noone, S. S. Kulawik, and J. Worden
Atmos. Meas. Tech., 7, 3127–3138, https://doi.org/10.5194/amt-7-3127-2014, https://doi.org/10.5194/amt-7-3127-2014, 2014
Related subject area
Subject: Water Resources Management | Techniques and Approaches: Uncertainty analysis
Robust multi-objective optimization under multiple uncertainties using the CM-ROPAR approach: case study of water resources allocation in the Huaihe River basin
Actionable human-water systems modeling under uncertainty
Evaluating the impact of post-processing medium-range ensemble streamflow forecasts from the European Flood Awareness System
Coupled effects of observation and parameter uncertainty on urban groundwater infrastructure decisions
Disentangling sources of future uncertainties for water management in sub-Saharan river basins
Possibilistic response surfaces: incorporating fuzzy thresholds into bottom-up flood vulnerability analysis
Future hot-spots for hydro-hazards in Great Britain: a probabilistic assessment
Evaluation of impacts of future climate change and water use scenarios on regional hydrology
Describing the interannual variability of precipitation with the derived distribution approach: effects of record length and resolution
Dissolved oxygen prediction using a possibility theory based fuzzy neural network
Projected changes in US rainfall erosivity
Approximating uncertainty of annual runoff and reservoir yield using stochastic replicates of global climate model data
Assessment of precipitation and temperature data from CMIP3 global climate models for hydrologic simulation
Robust global sensitivity analysis of a river management model to assess nonlinear and interaction effects
Sensitivity and uncertainty in crop water footprint accounting: a case study for the Yellow River basin
Irrigation efficiency and water-policy implications for river basin resilience
On an improved sub-regional water resources management representation for integration into earth system models
Statistical analysis of error propagation from radar rainfall to hydrological models
The implications of climate change scenario selection for future streamflow projection in the Upper Colorado River Basin
Prioritization of water management under climate change and urbanization using multi-criteria decision making methods
Crop yields response to water pressures in the Ebro basin in Spain: risk and water policy implications
Jitao Zhang, Dimitri Solomatine, and Zengchuan Dong
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 28, 3739–3753, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-3739-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-3739-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Faced with the problem of uncertainty in the field of water resources management, this paper proposes the Copula Multi-objective Robust Optimization and Probabilistic Analysis of Robustness (CM-ROPAR) approach to obtain robust water allocation schemes based on the uncertainty of drought and wet encounters and the uncertainty of inflow. We believe that this research article not only highlights the significance of the CM-ROPAR approach but also provides a new concept for uncertainty analysis.
Laura Gil-García, Nazaret M. Montilla-López, Carlos Gutiérrez-Martín, Ángel Sánchez-Daniel, Pablo Saiz-Santiago, Josué M. Polanco-Martínez, Julio Pindado, and C. Dionisio Pérez-Blanco
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-2024-61, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-2024-61, 2024
Revised manuscript accepted for HESS
Short summary
Short summary
This paper presents an interdisciplinary model for quantifying uncertainties in water allocation under climate change. It combines climate, hydrological, and microeconomic experiments with a decision support system. Multi-model analyses reveal potential futures for water management policies, emphasizing nonlinear climate responses. As illustrated in the Douro River Basin, minor water allocation changes have significant economic impacts, stresssing the need for adaptation strategies.
Gwyneth Matthews, Christopher Barnard, Hannah Cloke, Sarah L. Dance, Toni Jurlina, Cinzia Mazzetti, and Christel Prudhomme
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 26, 2939–2968, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-26-2939-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-26-2939-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
The European Flood Awareness System creates flood forecasts for up to 15 d in the future for the whole of Europe which are made available to local authorities. These forecasts can be erroneous because the weather forecasts include errors or because the hydrological model used does not represent the flow in the rivers correctly. We found that, by using recent observations and a model trained with past observations and forecasts, the real-time forecast can be corrected, thus becoming more useful.
Marina R. L. Mautner, Laura Foglia, and Jonathan D. Herman
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 26, 1319–1340, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-26-1319-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-26-1319-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
Sensitivity analysis can be harnessed to evaluate effects of model uncertainties on planning outcomes. This study explores how observation and parameter uncertainty propagate through a hydrogeologic model to influence the ranking of decision alternatives. Using global sensitivity analysis and evaluation of aquifer management objectives, we evaluate how physical properties of the model and choice of observations for calibration can lead to variations in decision-relevant model outputs.
Alessandro Amaranto, Dinis Juizo, and Andrea Castelletti
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 26, 245–263, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-26-245-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-26-245-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
This study aims at designing water supply strategies that are robust against climate, social, and land use changes in a sub-Saharan river basin. We found that robustness analysis supports the discovery of policies enhancing the resilience of water resources systems, benefiting the agricultural, energy, and urban sectors. We show how energy sustainability is affected by water availability, while urban and irrigation resilience also depends on infrastructural interventions and land use changes.
Thibaut Lachaut and Amaury Tilmant
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 25, 6421–6435, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-25-6421-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-25-6421-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
Response surfaces are increasingly used to identify the hydroclimatic conditions leading to a water resources system's failure. Partitioning the surface usually requires performance thresholds that are not necessarily crisp. We propose a methodology that combines the inherent uncertainty of response surfaces with the ambiguity of performance thresholds. The proposed methodology is illustrated with a multireservoir system in Canada for which some performance thresholds are imprecise.
Lila Collet, Shaun Harrigan, Christel Prudhomme, Giuseppe Formetta, and Lindsay Beevers
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 5387–5401, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-22-5387-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-22-5387-2018, 2018
Short summary
Short summary
Floods and droughts cause significant damages and pose risks to lives worldwide. In a climate change context this work identifies hotspots across Great Britain, i.e. places expected to be impacted by an increase in floods and droughts. By the 2080s the western coast of England and Wales and northeastern Scotland would experience more floods in winter and droughts in autumn, with a higher increase in drought hazard, showing a need to adapt water management policies in light of climate change.
Seungwoo Chang, Wendy Graham, Jeffrey Geurink, Nisai Wanakule, and Tirusew Asefa
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 4793–4813, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-22-4793-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-22-4793-2018, 2018
Short summary
Short summary
It is important to understand potential impacts of climate change and human water use on streamflow and groundwater levels. This study used climate models with an integrated hydrologic model to project future streamflow and groundwater level in Tampa Bay for a variety of future water use scenarios. Impacts of different climate projections on streamflow were found to be much stronger than the impacts of different human water use scenarios, but both were significant for groundwater projection.
Claudio I. Meier, Jorge Sebastián Moraga, Geri Pranzini, and Peter Molnar
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 20, 4177–4190, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-20-4177-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-20-4177-2016, 2016
Short summary
Short summary
We show that the derived distribution approach is able to characterize the interannual variability of precipitation much better than fitting a probabilistic model to annual rainfall totals, as long as continuously gauged data are available. The method is a useful tool for describing temporal changes in the distribution of annual rainfall, as it works for records as short as 5 years, and therefore does not require any stationarity assumption over long periods.
Usman T. Khan and Caterina Valeo
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 20, 2267–2293, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-20-2267-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-20-2267-2016, 2016
Short summary
Short summary
This paper contains a new two-step method to construct fuzzy numbers using observational data. In addition an existing fuzzy neural network is modified to account for fuzzy number inputs. This is combined with possibility-theory based intervals to train the network. Furthermore, model output and a defuzzification technique is used to estimate the risk of low Dissolved Oxygen so that water resource managers can implement strategies to prevent the occurrence of low Dissolved Oxygen.
M. Biasutti and R. Seager
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 19, 2945–2961, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-19-2945-2015, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-19-2945-2015, 2015
Short summary
Short summary
We estimate future changes in US erosivity from the most recent ensemble projections of daily and monthly rainfall accumulation. The expectation of overall increase in erosivity is confirmed by these calculations, but a quantitative assessment is marred by large uncertainties. Specifically, the uncertainty in the method of estimation of erosivity is more consequential than that deriving from the spread in climate simulations, and leads to changes of uncertain sign in parts of the south.
M. C. Peel, R. Srikanthan, T. A. McMahon, and D. J. Karoly
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 19, 1615–1639, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-19-1615-2015, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-19-1615-2015, 2015
Short summary
Short summary
We present a proof-of-concept approximation of within-GCM uncertainty using non-stationary stochastic replicates of monthly precipitation and temperature projections and investigate the impact of within-GCM uncertainty on projected runoff and reservoir yield. Amplification of within-GCM variability from precipitation to runoff to reservoir yield suggests climate change impact assessments ignoring within-GCM uncertainty would provide water resources managers with an unjustified sense of certainty
T. A. McMahon, M. C. Peel, and D. J. Karoly
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 19, 361–377, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-19-361-2015, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-19-361-2015, 2015
Short summary
Short summary
Here we assess GCM performance from a hydrologic perspective. We identify five better performing CMIP3 GCMs that reproduce grid-scale climatological statistics of observed precipitation and temperature over global land regions for future hydrologic simulation. GCM performance in reproducing observed mean and standard deviation of annual precipitation, mean annual temperature and mean monthly precipitation and temperature was assessed and ranked, and five better performing GCMs were identified.
L. J. M. Peeters, G. M. Podger, T. Smith, T. Pickett, R. H. Bark, and S. M. Cuddy
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 18, 3777–3785, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-18-3777-2014, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-18-3777-2014, 2014
L. Zhuo, M. M. Mekonnen, and A. Y. Hoekstra
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 18, 2219–2234, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-18-2219-2014, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-18-2219-2014, 2014
C. A. Scott, S. Vicuña, I. Blanco-Gutiérrez, F. Meza, and C. Varela-Ortega
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 18, 1339–1348, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-18-1339-2014, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-18-1339-2014, 2014
N. Voisin, H. Li, D. Ward, M. Huang, M. Wigmosta, and L. R. Leung
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 17, 3605–3622, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-17-3605-2013, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-17-3605-2013, 2013
D. Zhu, D. Z. Peng, and I. D. Cluckie
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 17, 1445–1453, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-17-1445-2013, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-17-1445-2013, 2013
B. L. Harding, A. W. Wood, and J. R. Prairie
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 16, 3989–4007, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-16-3989-2012, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-16-3989-2012, 2012
J.-S. Yang, E.-S. Chung, S.-U. Kim, and T.-W. Kim
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 16, 801–814, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-16-801-2012, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-16-801-2012, 2012
S. Quiroga, Z. Fernández-Haddad, and A. Iglesias
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 15, 505–518, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-15-505-2011, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-15-505-2011, 2011
Cited articles
Agrawala, S., Raksakulthai, V., Aalst, M., Larsen, P., Smith, J., and Reynolds, J.: Development and climate change in Nepal: Focus on water resources and hydropower, Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development, Paris, France, 2003.
Alaska Climate Research Center: http://climate.gi.alaska.edu/, last access: 4 April 2016.
Alaska Energy Authority (AEA): Susitna-Watana Project: http://www.susitna-watanahydro.org/, last access: 8 February 2016.
Alaska Energy Data Inventory (AEDI): http://www.akenergyinventory.org, last access: 8 February 2016.
Alfieri, L., Perona, P., and Burlando, P.: Optimal water allocation for an alpine hydropower system under changing scenarios, Water Resour. Manag., 20, 761–778, 2006.
Andreadis, K. M. and Lettenmaier, D. P.: Trends in 20th century drought over the continental United States, Geophys. Res. Lett., 33, L10403, https://doi.org/10.1029/2006GL025711, 2006.
Andrishak, R. and Hicks, F.: Simulating the effects of climate change on the ice regime of the Peace River, Can. J. Civil Eng., 35, 461–472, 2008.
Arendt, A. A., Echelmeyer, K. A., Harrison, W. D., Lingle, C. S., and Valentine, V. B.: Rapid wastage of Alaska glaciers and their contribution to rising sea level, Science, 297, 382–386, 2002.
Arendt, A. A., Walsh, J., and Harrison, W.: Changes of Glaciers and Climate in Northwestern North America during the Late Twentieth Century, J. Climate, 22, 4117–4134, https://doi.org/10.1175/2009JCLI2784.1, 2009.
Arsenault, R., Brissette, F., Malo, J. S., Minville, M., and Leconte, R.: Structural and Non-Structural Climate Change Adaptation Strategies for the Pribonka Water Resource System, Water Resour. Manag., 27, 2075–2087, 2013.
Balsamo, G., Viterbo, P., Beljaars, A., van den Hurk, B., Hirschi, M., Betts, A. K., and Scipal, K.: A revised hydrology for the ECMWF model: Verification from field site to terrestrial water storage and impact in the integrated forecast system, J. Hydrometeorol., 10, 623–643, https://doi.org/10.1175/2008JHM1068.1, 2009.
Balsamo, G., Pappenberger, F., Dutra, E., Viterbo, P., and van den Hurk, B.: A revised land hydrology in the ECMWF model: A step towards daily water flux prediction in a fully-closed water cycle, Hydrol. Process., 25, 1046–1054, https://doi.org/10.1002/hyp.7808, 2011.
Barnett, T. P., Adam, J. C., and Lettenmaier, D. P.: Potential impacts of a warming climate on water availability in snow-dominated regions, Nature, 438, 303–309, 2005.
Barsugli, J. J., Vogel, J., Kaatz, L., Smith, J., Waage, M., and Anderson, C. A.: Two faces of uncertainty: climate science and water utility planning methods, J. Water Res. Pl.-ASCE, 138, 389–395, 2012.
Barsugli, J. J, Guentchev, G., Horton, R. M., Wood, A., Mearns, L. O., Liang, X. Z., Winkler, J. A., Dixon, K., Hayhoe, K., Rood, R. B., Goddard, L., Ray, A. J., Buja, L., and Ammann, C.: The Practitioner's Dilemma: How to Assess the Credibility of Downscaled Climate Projections, Eos T. Am. Geophys. Un., 94, 424–25, 2013.
Beniston, M.: Impacts of climatic change on water and associated economic activities in the Swiss Alps, J. Hydrol., 412, 291–296, 2012.
Bennett, K. E. and Walsh, J. E.: Spatial and temporal changes in indices of extreme precipitation and temperature for Alaska, Int. J. Climatol., 35, 1434–1452, https://doi.org/10.1002/joc.4067, 2015.
Bennett, K. E., Werner, A. T., and Schnorbus, M.: Uncertainties in hydrologic and climate change impacts analyses in headwater basins of British Columbia, J. Climate, 25, 5711–5730, 2012.
Bense, V. F., Ferguson, G., and Kooi, H.: Evolution of shallow groundwater flow systems in areas of degrading permafrost, Geophys. Res. Lett., 36, L22401, https://doi.org/10.1029/2009GL039225, 2009.
Bergstrom, S., Carlsson, B., Gardelin, M., Lindstrom, G., Pettersson, A., and Rummukainen, M.: Climate change impacts on runoff in Sweden – assessments by global climate models, dynamical downscaling and hydrological modeling, Climate Res., 16, 101–112, 2001.
Beven, K., Smith, P., Westerberg, I., and Freer, J.: Comment on “Pursuing the method of multiple working hypotheses for hydrological modeling” by Clark et al., Water Resour. Res., 48, W11801, https://doi.org/10.1029/2012WR012282, 2012.
Bliss, A., Hock, R., and Radić, V.: Global response of glacier runoff to twenty-first century climate change, J. Geophys. Res.-Earth, 119, 717–730, 2014.
Bolch, T., Peters, J., Yegorov, A., Pradhan, B., Buchroithner, M., and Blagoveshchensky, V.: Identification of potentially dangerous glacial lakes in the northern Tien Shan, Nat. Hazards, 59, 1691–1714, 2011.
Brekke, L., White, K., Olsen, J. R., Townsley, E., Williams, D., Hanbali, F., Hennig, C., Brown, C., Raff, D., and Wittler, R.: Addressing Climate Change in Long-Term Water Resources Planning and Management User Needs for Improving Tools and Information, US Army Corps of Engineers Civil Works Technical Series CWTS-10-02, http://www.usbr. gov/climate/userneeds/ (last access: 4 April 2016), 2011.
Brekke, L. D., Maurer, E. P., Anderson, J. D., Dettinger, M. D., Townsley, E. S., Harrison, A., and Pruitt, T.: Assessing reservoir operations risk under climate change, Water Resour. Res, 45, W04411, https://doi.org/10.1029/2008WR006941, 2009.
Brown, C. M., Lund, J. R., Cai, X., Reed, P. M., Zagona, E. A., Ostfeld, A., Hall, J., Characklis, G. W., Yu, W., and Brekke, L.: The future of water resources systems analysis: Toward a scientific framework for sustainable water management, Water Resour. Res., 51, 6110–6124, https://doi.org/10.1002/2015WR017114, 2015.
Burn, D. H. and Simonovic, S. P.: Sensitivity of Reservoir Operation Performance to Climatic Change, Water Resour. Manag., 10, 463–478, 1996.
Callaghan, T. V., Johansson, M., Brown, R. D., Groisman, P. Y., Labba, N., Radionov, V., Barry, R. G., Bulygina, O. N., Essery, R. L. H., Frolov, D. M., Golubev, V. N., Grenfell, T. C., Petrushina, M. N., Razuvaev, V. N., Robinson, D. A., Romanov, P., Shindell, D., Shmakin, A. B., Sokratov, S. A., Warren, S., and Yang, D. Q.: The Changing Face of Arctic Snow Cover: A Synthesis of Observed and Projected Changes, Ambio, 40, 17–31, 2011a.
Callaghan, T. V., Johansson, M., Brown, R. D., Groisman, P. Y., Labba, N., Radionov, V., Bradley, R. S., Blangy, S. Bulygina, O. N., Christensen, T. R., Colman, J. E., Essery, R. L. H., Forbes, B. C., Forchhammer, M. C., Golubev, V. N., Honrath, R. E., Juday, G. P., Meshcherskaya, A. V., Phoenix, G. K., Pomeroy, J., Rautio, A., Robinson, D. A., Schmidt, N. M., Serreze, M. C., Shevchenko, V. P., Shiklomanov, A. I., Shmakin, A. B., Skold, P., Sturm, M., Woo, M. K., and Wood, E. F.: Multiple Effects of Changes in Arctic Snow Cover, Ambio, 40, 32–45, 2011b.
Carey, S. K., Boucher, J. L., and Duarte, C. M.: Inferring groundwater contributions and pathways to streamflow during snowmelt over multiple years in a discontinuous permafrost subarctic environment (Yukon, Canada), Hydrogeol. J., 21, 67–77, 2013.
Cash, D. W.: In Order to Aid in Diffusing Useful and Practical Information: Agricultural Extension and Boundary Organizations, Science, Technology and Human Values, 26, 431–53, 2001.
Chen, J., Brissette, F. P., and Leconte, R.: Coupling statistical and dynamical methods for spatial downscaling of precipitation, Climatic Change, 114, 509–526, 2012.
Chen, J., Brissette, F. P., and Leconte, R.: Assessing regression-based statistical approaches for downscaling precipitation over North America, Hydrol. Process., 28, 3482–3504, 2014.
Chernet, H. H., Alfredsen, K., and Killingtveit, A.: The impacts of climate change on a Norwegian high-head hydropower system, J. Water Clim. Change, 4, 17–37, 2013.
Cherry, J. E., Tremblay, L.-B, Déry, S., and Stieglitz, M.: Solid precipitation reconstruction using snow depth measurements and a land surface hydrology model, Water Resour. Res., 41, W09401, https://doi.org/10.1029/2005WR003965, 2005a.
Cherry, J. E., Cullen, H., Visbeck, M., Small, A., and Uvo, C.: Impacts of the North Atlantic Oscillation on Scandinavian hydropower production and energy markets, Water Resour. Manag., 19, 673–691, 2005b.
Cherry, J. E., Tremblay, L.-B., Stieglitz, M., Gong, G., and Déry, S.: Development of the Pan-Arctic Snowfall Reconstruction: new land-based solid precipitation estimates for 1940–1999, J. Hydrometeorol., 8, 1243–1263, 2007.
Christensen, J. H., Krishna Kumar, K., Aldrian, E., An, S.-I., Cavalcanti, I. F. A., de Castro, M., Dong, W., Goswami, P., Hall, A., Kanyanga, J. K., Kitoh, A., Kossin, J., Lau, N.-C., Renwick, J., Stephenson, D. B., Xie, S.-P., and Zhou, T.: Climate Phenomena and their Relevance for Future Regional Climate Change, in: Climate Change 2013: The Physical Science Basis. Contribution of Working Group I to the Fifth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, edited by: Stocker, T. F., Qin, D., Plattner, G.-K., Tignor, M., Allen, S. K., Boschung, J., Nauels, A.,Xia, Y., Bex, V., and Midgley, P. M., Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, United Kingdom and New York, NY, USA, 2013.
Christensen, N. S., Wood, A. W., Voisin, N., Lettenmaier, D. P., and Palmer, R. N.: The effects of climate change on the hydrology and water resources of the Colorado River basin, Climatic Change, 62, 337–363, 2004.
Clark, M. P., Kavetski, D., and Fenicia, F.: Pursuing the method of multiple working hypotheses for hydrological modeling, Water Resour. Res., 47, W09301, https://doi.org/10.1029/2010WR009827, 2011.
Clark, M. P., Fan, Y., Lawrence, D. M., Adam, J. C., Bolster, D., Gochis, D. J., Hooper, R. P., Kumar, M., Leung, L. R., Mackay, D. S., Maxwell, R. M., Shen, C., Swenson, S. C., and Zeng, X.: Improving the representation of hydrologic processes in Earth System Models, Water Resour. Res., 51, 5929–5956, https://doi.org/10.1002/2015WR017096, 2015.
Cohen, J. L., Furtado, J. C., Barlow, M., Alexeev, V. A., and Cherry, J. E.: Asymmetric seasonal temperature trends, Geophys. Res. Lett., 39, L04705, https://doi.org/10.1029/2011GL050582, 2012a.
Cohen, J. L., Furtado, J. C., Barlow, M., Alexeev, V. A., and Cherry, J. E.: Arctic warming, increasing snow cover and widespread boreal winter cooling, Environ. Res. Lett., 7, 014007, https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/7/1/014007, 2012b.
Conner, A. M. and Francfort, J. E.: U.S. Hydropower Resource Assessment for Alaska. Idaho National Lab, whitepaper DOE/ID-10430(AK), http://hydropower.inl.gov/resourceassessment/pdfs/states/ak.pdf (last access: 3 April 2016), 1997.
Curran, J. H.: Streamflow record extension for selected streams in the Susitna River Basin, Alaska: US Geological Survey Scientific Investigations Report, 2012–5210, 36, 2012.
Dahlke, H. E., Lyon, S. W., Stedinger, J. R., Rosqvist, G., and Jansson, P.: Contrasting trends in floods for two sub-arctic catchments in northern Sweden – does glacier presence matter?, Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 16, 2123–2141, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-16-2123-2012, 2012.
Dibike, Y. B., Gachon, P., St-Hilaire, A., Ouarda, T. B. M. J., and Nguyen, V. T.-V.: Uncertainty analysis of statistically downscaled temperature and precipitation regimes in Northern Canada, Theor. Appl. Climatol., 91, 149–170, 2008.
Döll, P., Jiménez-Cisneros, B., Oki, T., Arnell, N. W., Benito, G., Cogley, J. G., Jiang, T., Kundzewicz, Z. W., Mwakalila, S., and Nishijima, A.: Integrating risks of climate change into water management, Hydrolog. Sci. J., 60, 4–13, https://doi.org/10.1080/02626667.2014.967250, 2015.
Energy Information Administration (EIA): http://www.eia.gov/electricity/annual/ (last access: 1 March 2015), 2015.
Eum, H. I., Dibike, Y., and Prowse, T.: Uncertainty in modeling the hydrologic responses of a large watershed: a case study of the Athabasca River basin, Canada, Hydrol. Process., 28, 4272–4293, 2014.
Federal Energy Regulatory Commission (FERC): Study Plan Determination for the Susitna-Watana Hydroelectric Project, Project No. P-14241, 1 February 2013, http://www.susitna-watanahydro.org/wp-content/uploads/2015/11/20130201_FERC_SPD.pdf (last access: 1 June 2016), 2013a.
Federal Energy Regulatory Commission (FERC): Study Plan Determination on 14 remaining studies for the Susitna-Watana Hydroelectric Project, Project No. P-14241, 1 April 2013, http://www.susitna-watanahydro.org/wp-content/uploads/2015/11/20130401_FERC_SPD14remainingStudies.pdf (last access: 1 June 2016), 2013b.
Federal Energy Regulatory Commission (FERC): Director's Formal Study Dispute Determination for the Susitna-Watana Hydroelectric Project, Project No. P-14241, 26 April 2013, http://www.susitna-watanahydro.org/wp-content/uploads/2015/11/20130426_FERC_DirectorsDisputeDetermination.pdf, 2013c.
Fenner, R. A.: Ice, Snow and Water: impacts of climate change on California and Himalayan Asia, UCSD Sustainability Solutions Institute Publication Series, http://escholarship.org/uc/item/8wh378h7 (last access: 3 April 2016), 2009.
Finger, D., Heinrich, G., Gobiet, A., and Bauder, A.: Projections of future water resources and their uncertainty in a glacierized catchment in the Swiss Alps and the subsequent effects on hydropower production during the 21st century, Water. Resour. Res., 48, W03903, https://doi.org/10.1029/2011WR010733, 2012.
Francis, J. A. and Vavrus, S. J.: Evidence for a wavier jet stream in response to rapid Arctic warming, Environ. Res. Lett., 10, 014005, https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/10/1/014005, 2015.
Frigon A., Slivitzky, M., Caya, D., and Roy, R.: Construction of hydro-climatic projections and first-order estimation of their associated uncertainties from Regional Climate Model simulations: Application to water management of hydropower reservoirs in Quebec, La Houille Blanche, 6, 97–103, https://doi.org/10.1051/lhb:2007089, 2007.
Gallucci, M.: Solar and wind power poised to overtake hydropower as largest source of U.S. Renewable Electricity Generation, International Business Times, 1 August 2014.
Gaudard, L., Gilli, M., and Romerio, F.: Climate Change Impacts on Hydropower Management, Water Resour. Manag., 27, 5143–5156, 2013.
Gebre, S., Alfredsen, K., Lia, L., Stickler, M., and Tesaker, E.: Review of Ice Effects on Hydropower Systems, J. Cold Reg. Eng., 27, 196–222, 2013.
Genet, H., Oberbauer, S. F., Colby, S. J., Staudhammer, C. L., and Starr, G.: Growth responses of Sphagnum hollows to a growing season lengthening manipulation in Alaskan Arctic tundra, Polar Biol., 36, 41–50, 2013.
Georgakakos, A. P., Fleming, P., Dettinger, M., Peters-Lidard, C., Richmond, T. C., Reckhow, K., White, K., and Yates., D.: Water Resources Chapter, National Climate Assessment, http://ncadac.globalchange.gov (last access: 15 April 2015), 2014.
Gochis, D. J., Yu, W., and Yates, D. N.: The WRF-Hydro model technical description and user's guide, version 2.0, NCAR Technical Document, http://www.ral.ucar.edu/projects/wrf_hydro (last access: 15 April 2015), 120 pp., 2014.
Gordon, E., Dilling, L., McNie, E., and Ray, A. J., Parris, A. S., Garfin, G. M., Dow, K., Meyer, R., and Close, S. L.: 11. Navigating scales of knowledge and decision-making in the Intermountain West: implications for science policy, in: Climate in Context: Science and Society Partnering for Adaptation, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd, Chichester, UK, 235–254, ISBN 9781118474792, 2016.
Gurnell, A. M.: Sediment yield from Alpine glacier basins, in: Sediment and Water Quality in River Catchments, edited by: Foster, I. D. L., Gurnell, A. M., and Webb, B. W., Wiley, New York, 407–435, 1995.
Guston, D. H.: Boundary Organizations in Environmental Policy and Science: An Introduction, Sci. Technol. Hum. Val., 26, 399–408, 2001.
Hagemann, S., Chen, C., Clark, D. B., Folwell, S., Gosling, S. N., Haddeland, I., Hanasaki, N., Heinke, J., Ludwig, F., Voss, F., and Wiltshire, A. J.: Climate change impact on available water resources obtained using multiple global climate and hydrology models, Earth Syst. Dynam., 4, 129–144, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-4-129-2013, 2013.
Hagg, W., Braun, L. N., Weber, M., and Becht, M.: Runoff modelling in glacierized Central Asian catchments for present-day and future climate, Nord. Hydrol. 37, 93–105, 2006.
Hamlet, A. F.: Assessing water resources adaptive capacity to climate change impacts in the Pacific Northwest Region of North America, Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 15, 1427–1443, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-15-1427-2011, 2011.
Hamududu, B. and Killingtveit, A.: Assessing Climate Change Impacts on Global Hydropower, Energies, 5, 305–322, 2012.
Harrison, G. P. and Whittington, H. W.: Vulnerability of hydropower projects to climate change, IEEEE P.-Gener. Transm. D., 149, 249–255, 2002.
Harrison, G. P., Whittington, H. W., and Wallace, A. R.: Climate change impacts on financial risk in hydropower projects, IEEE T. Power Syst., 18, 1324–1330, 2003.
Harrison, W., Drage, B., Bredthauer, S., Johnson, D., Schoch, C., and Follet, A.: Reconnaissance of the Glaciers of the Susitna River Basin in Connection with Proposed Hydroelectric Development, Ann. Glaciol., 4, 99–104, 1983.
Hansen, J., Ruedy, R., Sato, M., and Lo, K.: Global surface temperature change, Rev. Geophys., 48, RG4004, https://doi.org/10.1029/2010RG000345, 2010.
Hartmann, D. L., Klein Tank, A. M. G., Rusticucci, M., Alexander, L. V., Brönnimann, S., Charabi, Y., Dentener, F. J., Dlugokencky, E. J., Easterling, D. R., Kaplan, A., Soden, B. J., Thorne, P. W., Wild, M., and Zhai, P. M.: Observations: Atmosphere and Surface, in: Climate Change 2013: The Physical Science Basis. Contribution of Working Group I to the Fifth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, edited by: Stocker, T. F., Qin, D., Plattner, G.-K., Tignor, M., Allen, S. K., Boschung, J., Nauels, A., Xia, Y., Bex, V., and Midgley, P. M., Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, United Kingdom and New York, NY, USA, 2013.
Hawkins, E. and Sutton, R.: The Potential to Narrow Uncertainty in Regional Climate Predictions, B. Am. Meterol. Soc., 90, 1095–1107, 2009.
Hochstein, A.: Arctic Renewable Energy, a Focal Point for the U.S. Arctic Council Chairmanship. DIPNOTE/US Dept of State Official Blog, 7 May 2015, https://blogs.state.gov/stories/, 2015.
Horstmann, B.: Glacial Lake Outburst Floods in Nepal and Switzerland, New Threats due to Climate Change, Germanwatch, Bonn, http://germanwatch.org/en/2753 (last access: 18 February 2014), 2004.
Hurd, B., Leary, N., Jones, R., and Smith, J.: Relative regional vulnerability of water resources to climate change, J. Am. Water Resour. As., 35, 1399–1409, 1999.
Huss, M., Farinotti, D., Bauder. A., and Funk, M.: Modelling runoff from highly glacierized alpine drainage basins in a changing climate, Hydrol. Process., 22, 3888–3902, 2008.
Ilimi, A.: Estimating Global Climate Change Impacts on Hydropower Projects, The World Bank: Policy Research Working Paper, 4344, 2007.
Inderberg, T. H. and Løchen, L. A.: Adaptation to climate change among electricity distribution companies in Norway and Sweden: lessons from the field, Local Environment, 17, 663–678, https://doi.org/10.1080/13549839.2011.646971, 2012.
International Centre for Hydropower (ICH): Risk Management in Hydropower Development Proceedings, 2016.
International Commission on Large Dams (ICOLD): Draft Bulletin: Global Climate Change, Dams, Reservoirs, and Related Water Resources, http://www.icold-cigb.org/ (last access: 3 April 2016), 2013.
International Energy Agency (IEA): Overview of IEA Hydropower Implementation Agreement, http://www.nef.or.jp/ieahydro/contents/pdf/info/info201303-1-3.pdf (last access: 3 April 2016), 2013.
International Hydropower Association (IEA): IHA Hydropower Report, https://www.hydropower.org/publications (last access: 3 April 2016), 2010.
International Hydropower Association (IEA): IHA Hydropower Report, https://www.hydropower.org/2013-hydropower-report (last access: 3 April 2016), 2013.
Jiménez Cisneros, B. E., Oki, T., Arnell, N. W., Benito, G., Cogley, J. G. Döll, P., Jiang, T., and Mwakalila, S. S.: Freshwater resources, in: Climate Change 2014: Impacts,Adaptation, and Vulnerability. Part A: Global and Sectoral Aspects, Contribution of Working Group II to the Fifth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, edited by: Field, C. B., Barros, V. R., Dokken, D. J., Mach, K. J., Mastrandrea, M. D., Bilir, T. E., Chatterjee, M., Ebi, K. L., Estrada, Y. O., Genova, R. C., Girma, B., Kissel, E. S., Levy, A. N., MacCracken, S., Mastrandrea, P. R., and White, L. L., Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, United Kingdom and New York, NY, USA, 229–269, 2014.
Jansson, P., Hock, R., and Schneider, T.: The concept of glacier storage: a review, J. Hydrol., 282, 116–129, https://doi.org/10.1016/S0022-1694(03)00258-0, 2003.
Johannesson, T., Aðalgeirsdóttir, G., Ahlstrom, A., Andreassen, L. M., Bjornsson, H., de Woul, M., Elvehoy, H., Flowers, G. E., Guðmundsson, S., Hock, R., Holmlund, P., Palsson, F., Radic, V., Sigurðsson, O., and Thorsteinsson, T.: The impact of climate change on glaciers and glacial runoff in the Nordic countries, European Conference on Impacts of Climate Change on Renewable Energy Sources, Reykjavik, Iceland, 5–9 June, 31–34, 2006.
Jones, J. B. and Rinehart, A. J.: The long-term response of stream flow to climatic warming in headwater streams of interior Alaska, Can. J. Forest Res., 40, 1210–1218, 2010.
Jonsdottir, J. F.: A runoff map based on numerically simulated precipitation and a projection of future runoff in Iceland, Hydrolog. Sci. J., 53, 100–111, 2008.
Jost, G. and Weber, F.: Potential Impacts of Climate Change on BC Hydro's Water Resources, BC: BC Hydro, https://www.bchydro.com/content/dam/hydro/medialib/internet/documents/about/climate_change_report_2012.pdf (last access: 28 December 2016), 2012.
Kane, D. L., Gieck, R. E., and Hinzman, L. D.: Evapotranspiration from a Small Alaskan Arctic Watershed, Nord. Hydrol., 21, 253–272, 1990.
Kaunda, C. S., Kimambo, C. Z., and Nielsen, T. K.: Hydropower in the Context of Sustainable Energy Supply: A Review of Technologies and Challenges, International Scholarly Research Notices, 2012.
Key, J., Goodison, B., Schoner, W., Godoy, O., Ondras, M., and Snorrason, A.: A Global Cryosphere Watch, Arctic, 68, 48–58, 2015.
Kirkinen, J., Martikainen, A., Holttinen, H., Savolainen, I., Auvinen O., and Syri, S.: Impacts on the energy sector and adaptation of the electricity network business under a changing climate in Finland, FINADAPT Working Paper 10, Finnish Environment Institute Mimeographs 340, Helsinki, 36 pp., 2005.
Koutsoyiannis, D., Montanari, A., Lins, H. F., and Cohn, T. A.: Discussion of “The implications of projected climate change for freshwater resources and their management” Climate, hydrology and freshwater: towards an interactive incorporation of hydrological experience into climate research, Hydrolog. Sci. J., 54, 394–405, 2009.
Kundzewicz, Z. W. and Stakhiv, E. Z.: Are climate models “ready for prime time” in water resources management applications, or is more research needed?, Hydrolog. Sci. J., 55, 1085–1089, 2010.
Kunreuther, H., Heal, G., Allen, M., Edenhofer, O., Field, C. B., and Yohe, G.: Risk management and climate change, Nature Climate Change, 3, 447–450, 2013.
Kutuzov, S. and Shahgedanova, M.: Glacier retreat and climatic variability in the eastern Terskey-Alatoo, inner Tien Shan between the middle of the 19th century and beginning of the 21st century, Global Planet. Change, 69, 59–70, 2009.
Lawrence, D. and Hisdal, H.: Hydrological projections for floods in Norway under a future climate, Report 5 Norwegian Water Resources and Energy Directorate, 47 pp., 2011.
Lettenmaier, D. P., Wood, A. W., Palmer, R. N., Wood, E. F., and Stakhiv, E. Z.: Water resources implications of global warming: A US regional perspective, Climatic Change, 43, 537–579, 1999.
Li, H., Wigmosta, M. S., Huang, H. W. M., Ke, Y., Coleman, A. M., and Leung, L. R.: A Physically Based Runoff Routing Model for Land Surface and Earth System Models, J. Hydrometeorol., 14, 808–828, 2013.
Locher, H., Hermansen, G. Y., Johannesson, G. A., Xuezhong, Y., Phiri, I., Harrison, D., Hartmann, J., Simon, M., O'Leary, D., Lowrance, C., Fields, D., Abadie, A., Abdel-Malek, R., Scanlon, A., and Nyman, K.: Initiatives in the hydro sector post-World Commission on Dams – The Hydropower Sustainability Assessment Forum, Water Alternatives, 3, 43–57, 2010.
Lofgren, B. M., Gronewold, A. D., Acciaioli, A., Cherry, J. E., Steiner, A., and Watkins, D.: Methodological Approaches to Projecting the Hydrologic Impacts of Climate Change, Earth Interact., 17, 1–19, https://doi.org/10.1175/2013EI000532.1, 2013.
Lowrey, J., Ray, A., and Webb, R.: Factors Influencing the Use of Climate Information by Colorado Municipal Water Managers, Clim. Res., 40, 103–119, 2009.
Lund, J. R.: Integrating social and physical sciences in water management, Water Resour. Res., 51, 5905–5918, https://doi.org/10.1002/2015WR017125, 2015.
Madani, K.: Hydropower licensing and climate change: Insights from cooperative game theory, Adv. Water Resour., 34, 174–183, 2011.
Madani, K. and Lund, J. R.: Estimated impacts of climate warming on California's high-elevation hydropower, Climatic Change, 102, 521–538, 2010.
Malewitz, J.: Drought Hastens End of a Region's Hydropower Era, The Texas Tribune and the New York Times, http://nyti.ms/1cLfBrx (last access: 3 April 2016), 2014.
Markoff, M. S. and Cullen, A. C.: Impact of climate change on Pacific Northwest hydropower, Climatic Change, 87, 451–469, 2008.
Marttila, V., Granholm, H., Laanikari, J., Yrjölä, T., Aalto, A., Heikinheimo, P., Honkatukia, J., Järvinen, H., Liski, J., Merivirta, R., and Paunio, M.: Finland's National Strategy for Adaptation to Climate Change, Ministry of Agriculture and Forestry of Finland Publication, 1a/2005, 2005.
Mastrandrea, M. D., Field, C. B., Stocker, T. F., Edenhofer, O., Ebi, K. L., Frame, D. J., Held, H., Kriegler, E., Mach, K. J., Matschoss, P. R., Plattner, G.-K., Yohe, G. W., and Zwiers, F. W.: Guidance Note for Lead Authors of the IPCC Fifth Assessment Report on Consistent Treatment of Uncertainties. Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), https://www.ipcc.ch/pdf/supporting-material/uncertainty-guidance-note.pdf (last access: 27 December 2016), 2010.
McAfee, S., Guentchev, G., and Eischeid, J.: Reconciling precipitation trends in Alaska: 2. Gridded data analyses, J. Geophys. Res.-Atmos., 119, 13820–13837, https://doi.org/10.1002/2014JD022461, 2014.
McAfee, S. A., Guentchev, G., and Eischeid, J. K.: Reconciling precipitation trends in Alaska: 1. Station-based analyses, J. Geophys. Res.-Atmos., 118, 7523–7541, 2013.
McClelland, J. W., Tank, S. E., Spencer, R. G. M., and Shiklomanov, A. I.: Coordination and Sustainability of River Observing Activities in the Arctic, Arctic, 68, 59–68, 2015.
Mehta, V. K., Rheinheimer, D. E., Yates, D., Purkey, D. R., Viers, J. H., Young, C. A., and Mount, J. F.: Potential impacts on hydrology and hydropower production under climate warming of the Sierra Nevada, J. Water Clim. Change, 2, 29–43, 2011.
Mekis, É. and Vincent, L. A.: An overview of the second generation adjusted daily precipitation dataset for trend analysis in Canada, Atmos. Ocean, 49, 163–177, 2011.
Melillo, J. M., Richmond, T. C., and Yohe, G. W. (Eds.): Climate Change Impacts in the United States: The Third National Climate Assessment, US Global Change Research Program, 841 pp., https://doi.org/10.7930/J0Z31WJ2, 2014.
Miller, C.: Hybrid management: boundary organizations, science policy, and environmental governance in the climate regime, Sci. Technol. Hum. Val., 26, 478–500, 2001.
Milly, P. C. D., Betancourt, J., Falkenmark, M., Hirsch, R. M., Kundzewicz, Z. W., Lettenmaier, D. P., and Stouffer, R. J.: Climate change – Stationarity is dead: Whither water management?, Science, 319, 573–574, 2008.
Minville, M., Brissette, F., Krau, S., and Leconte, R.: Adaptation to Climate Change in the Management of a Canadian Water-Resources System Exploited for Hydropower, Water Resour. Manag., 23, 2965–2986, 2009.
Minville, M., Brissette, F., and Leconte, R.: Impacts and Uncertainty of Climate Change on Water Resour. Manag. of the Peribonka River System (Canada), J. Water Res. Pl.-ASCE, 136, 376–385, 2010a.
Minville, M., Krau, S., Brissette, F., and Leconte, R.: Behaviour and Performance of a Water Resource System in Quebec (Canada) Under Adapted Operating Policies in a Climate Change Context, Water Resour. Manag., 24, 1333–1352, 2010b.
Molarius, R., Keranen, J., Schabel, J., and Wessberg, N.: Creating a climate change risk assessment procedure: Hydropower plant case, Finland, Hydrol. Res., 41, 282–294, 2010.
Moran, E. H. and Solin, G. L.: Preliminary water-table map and water-quality data for part of the Matanuska-Susitna Valley, Alaska, 2005, US Geological Survey Open-File Report 2006-1209, 43 pp., 2006.
Mote, P. W.: Climate-Driven Variability and Trends in Mountain Snowpack in Western North America, J. Climate, 19, 6209–6220, 2006.
Mukheibir, P.: Potential consequences of projected climate change impacts on hydroelectricity generation, Climatic Change, 121, 67–78, 2013.
Murray, M. S., Anderson, L., Cherkashov, G., Cuyler, C., Forbes, B., Gascard, J. C., Haas, C., Schlosser, P., Shaver, G., Shimada, K., Tjernström, M., Walsh, J., Wandell, J., and Zhao, Z.: International Study of Arctic Change: Science Plan., ISAC International Program Office, Stockholm, 2010.
Narama, C., Duishonakunov, M., Kääb, A., Daiyrov, M., and Abdrakhmatov, K.: The 24 July 2008 outburst flood at the western Zyndan glacier lake and recent regional changes in glacier lakes of the Teskey Ala-Too range, Tien Shan, Kyrgyzstan, Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 10, 647–659, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-10-647-2010, 2010.
NOAA/NMFS: Study request to the Federal Energy Regulatory Commission, Susitna-Watana Project, Alaska (P-14241), Enclosure 12, Susitna River Project Effects Under Changing Climate Conditions Study Request, 31 May 2012, https://alaskafisheries.noaa.gov/sites/default/files/fercsusitnamasterstudy.pdf (last access: 27 December 2016), 2012.
NOAA/NMFS: Study modification request to the Federal Energy Regulatory Commission, Susitna-Watana Project, Alaska (P-14241), 7.7 Glacial and Runoff Changes, https://alaskafisheries.noaa.gov/sites/default/files/fercsusitnafinalreviewdocument062216.pdf, 37 pp., 27 December 2016.
Oki, T. and Kanae, S.: Global hydrological cycles and world water resources, Science, 313, 1068–1072, 2006.
Olchev, A. and Novenko, E.: Estimation of potential and actual evaportranspiration of boreal forest ecosystems in the European part of Russia during the Holocene, Environ. Res. Lett., 6, 045213, https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/6/4/045213, 2011.
O'Neel, S., Hood, E., Arendt, A., and Sass, L.: Assessing stream flow sensitivity to variations in glacier mass balance, Climatic Change, 123, 329–341, https://doi.org/10.1007/s10584-013-1042-7, 2014.
Ouranos: The Impact of Climate Change on Hydro-Electricity Generation, CEATI REPORT No. T072700-0409, www.ceati.com (last access: 3 April 2016), 2008.
Patel, G. P. and Singhal, S.: Perception and management of risk in hydropower projects, in Proceedings of the International Conference on Hydropower for Sustainable Development, 5–7 February 2015, Dehradun, India, 331–338, 2015.
Payne, J. T., Wood, A. W., Hamlet, A. F., Palmer, R. N., and Lettenmaier, D. P.: Mitigating the effects of climate change on the water resources of the Columbia River Basin, Climatic Change, 62, 233–256, 2004.
Peacock, S.: Projected Twenty-First-Century Changes in Temperature, Precipitation, and Snow Cover over North America in CCSM4, J. Climate, 25, 4405–4428, https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-11-00214.1, 2012.
Pechlivanidis, I. G., Jackson, B. M., and McIntyre, N. R.: Catchment scale hydrological modelling: a review of model types, calibration approaches and uncertainty analysis methods in the context of recent developments in technology and Applications, Global NEST J., 13, 193–214, 2011.
Perez-Diaz, J. I. and Wilhelmi, J. R.: Assessment of the economic impact of environmental constraints on short-term hydropower plant operation, Energ. Policy., 38, 7960–7970, 2010.
Pittock, J.: Viewpoint – Better Management of Hydropower in an Era of Climate Change, Water Alternatives, 3, 444–452, 2010.
Prowse, T., Alfredsen, K., Beltaos, S., Bonsal, B., Bowden, W. B., Duguay, C., Korhola, A., McNamara, J., Vincent, W. F., Vuglinsky, V., Walter Anthony, K. M., and Weyhenmeyer, G. A.: Effects of changes in Arctic river and lake ice, Ambio, 40, 63–74, https://doi.org/10.1007/s13280-011-0217-6, 2011.
Prowse, T. D. and Beltaos, S.: Climatic control of river-ice hydrology: a review, Hydrol. Process., 16, 805–822, https://doi.org/10.1002/hyp.369, 2002.
Quinton, W. L., Hayashi, M., and Chasmer, L. E.: Permafrost-thaw-induced land-cover change in the Canadian subarctic: implications for water resources, Hydrol. Process, 25, 152–158, 2011.
Radić, V. and Hock, R.: Glaciers in the Earth's Hydrological Cycle: Assessments of Glacier Mass and Runoff Changes on Global and Regional Scales, Surv. Geophys., 35, 813–837, 2014.
Rajagopalan, B., Nowak, N., Prairie, J., Hoerling, M., Harding, B., Barsugli, J., Ray, A., and Udall, B.: Water supply risk on the Colorado River: Can management mitigate?, Water Resour. Res., 45, W08201, https://doi.org/10.1029/2008WR007652, 2009.
Raje, D. and Mujumdar, P. P.: Reservoir performance under uncertainty in hydrologic impacts of climate change, Adv. Water Resour., 33, 312–326, 2010.
Rawlins, M. A., Steele, M., Holland, M., Adam, J. C., Cherry, J. E., Francis, J. A., Groisman, P., Hinzman, L. D., Huntington, T. G., Kane, D. L., Kimball, J. S., Kwok, R., Lammers, R. B., Lettenmaier, D. P., McDonald, K. C., Podest, E., Pundsack, J. W., Rudels, B., Serreze, M. C., Shiklomanov, A., Skagseth, O., Troy, T. J., Vorosmarty, C. J., Wensnahan, M., Wood, E. R., Woodgate, R., Yang, D., Zhang, K., and Zhang, T.: Analysis of the Arctic System Freshwater Cycle Intensification: Observations and Expectations, J. Climate, 23, 5715–5737, 2010.
Ray, P. A. and Brown, C. M.: Confronting climate uncertainty in water resources planning and project design: the decision tree framework, Washington, D.C., World Bank Group, 149 pp., 2015.
Rayner, S., Lach D., and Ingram, H.: Weather forecasts are for wimps: Why water resource managers do not use climate forecasts, Climatic Change, 69, 197–227, 2005.
REAP/Renewable Energy Alaska Projects: http://alaskarenewableenergy.org/index.php/clean-energy-in-alaska/map-of-re-installations/, last access: 27 December 2016.
Rheinheimer, D. E., Yarnell, S. M., and Viers, J. H.: Hydropower Costs of Environmental Flows and Climate Warming in California's Upper Yuba River Watershed, River Res. Appl., 29, 1291–1305, 2013.
Rhines, A., and Huybers, P.: Frequent summer temperature extremes reflect changes in the mean, not the variance, P. Natl. Acad. Sci. USA, 110, E546, https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.1218748110, 2013.
Richardson, S. D. and Reynolds, J. M.: An overview of glacial hazards in the Himalayas, Quatern. Int., 65, 31–47, 2000.
Robinson, P. J.: Climate change and hydropower generation, Int. J. Climatol., 17, 983–996, 1997.
Rummukainen, M., Raisanen, J., Bjorge, D., Christensen, J. H., Christensen, O. B., Iversen, T., Jylha, K., Olafsson, H., and Tuomenvirta, H.: Regional climate scenarios for use in Nordic water resources studies, Nord. Hydrol., 34, 399–412, 2003.
Schaefli, B., Hingray, B., and Musy, A.: Climate change and hydropower production in the Swiss Alps: quantification of potential impacts and related modelling uncertainties, Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 11, 1191–1205, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-11-1191-2007, 2007.
Scherer, L. and Pfister S: Hydropower's Biogenic Carbon Footprint, PLoS ONE, 11, e0161947, https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0161947, 2016.
Serreze, M. C. and Barry, R. G.: The Arctic Climate System, 2nd Edn., Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, 415 pp., 2014.
Shrestha, R. R., Schnorbus, M. A., Werner, A. T., and Berland, A. J.: Modelling spatial and temporal variability of hydrologic impacts of climate change in the Fraser River basin, British Columbia, Canada, Hydrol. Process., 26, 1840–1860, 2012.
Sorg, A., Bolch, T., Stoffel, M., Solomina, O., and Beniston, M.: Climate change impacts on glaciers and runoff in Tien Shan (Central Asia), Nature Climate Change, 2, 725–731, 2012.
Timalsina, N. P., Charmasson, J., and Alfredsen, K. T.: Simulation of the ice regime in a norwegian regulated river, Cold Reg. Sci. Technol., 94, 61–73, 2013.
Toniolo, H. and Schultz, J.: Experiments on sediment trap efficiency in reservoirs, Lakes & Reservoirs: Research and Management, 10, 13–24, 2005.
Vano, J. A., Scott, M. J., Voisin, N., Stöckle, C. O., Hamlet, A. F., Mickelson, K. E. B., Elsner, M. M. G., and Lettenmaier, D. P.: Climate change impacts on water management and irrigated agriculture in the Yakima River Basin, Washington, USA, Climatic Change, 102, 287–317, https://doi.org/10.1007/s10584-010-9856-z, 2010.
Veijalainen, N., Lotsari, E., Alho, P., Vehvilainen, B., and Kayhko, J.: National scale assessment of climate change impacts on flooding in Finland, J. Hydrol., 391, 333–350, 2010.
Vicuna, S., Leonardson, R., Hanemann, M. W., Dale, L. L., and Dracup, J. A.: Climate change impacts on high elevation hydropower generation in California's Sierra Nevada: a case study in the Upper American River, Climatic Change, 87, S123–S137, 2008.
Vicuna, S., Dracup, J. A., and Dale, L.: Climate change impacts on two high-elevation hydropower systems in California, Climatic Change, 109, 151–169, 2011.
Viers, J. H.: Hydropower Relicensing and Climate Change, J. Am. Water Resour. As., 47, 655–661, 2011.
Viviroli, D., Archer, D. R., Buytaert, W., Fowler, H. J., Greenwood, G. B., Hamlet, A. F., Huang, Y., Koboltschnig, G., Litaor, M. I., López-Moreno, J. I., Lorentz, S., Schädler, B., Schreier, H., Schwaiger, K., Vuille, M., and Woods, R.: Climate change and mountain water resources: overview and recommendations for research, management and policy, Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 15, 471–504, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-15-471-2011, 2011.
Walsh, J., Wuebbles, D., Hayhoe, K., Kossin, J., Kunkel, K. Stephens, G., Thorne, P., Vose, R., Wehner, M., Willis, J., Anderson, D., Doney, S., Feely, R., Hennon, P., Kharin, V., Knutson, T., Landerer, F., Lenton, T., Kennedy, J., and Somerville, R.: Ch. 2: Our Changing Climate. Climate Change Impacts in the United States: The Third National Climate Assessment, edited by: Melillo, J. M., Richmond, T. C., and Yohe, G. W., US Global Change Research Program, 19–67, https://doi.org/10.7930/J0KW5CXT, 2014.
Wada, T., Chikita, K. A., Kim, Y., and Kudo, I.: Glacial Effects on Discharge and Sediment Load in the Subarctic Tanana River Basin, Alaska, Arct. Antarct. Alp. Res., 43, 632–648, 2011.
Wilby, R. L.: Evaluating climate model outputs for hydrological applications, Hydrolog. Sci. J., 55, 1090–1093, 2010.
Wilby, R. L. and Dessai, S.: Robust adaptation to climate change, Weather, 65, 180–185, https://doi.org/10.1002/wea.543, 2010.
Wilson, D., Hisdal, H., and Lawrence, D.: Has streamflow changed in the Nordic countries? – Recent trends and comparisons to hydrological projections, J. Hydrol., 394, 334–346, 2010.
World Bank: Directions in hydropower, Washington, DC: World Bank, http://documents.worldbank.org/curated/en/2009/03/12331040/directions-hydropower (last access: 3 April 2016), 2009.
World Commission on Dams (WCOD): Dams and Development: A new framework for Decision-Making, www.unep.org/dams/WCD/report/WCD_DAMS report.pdf (last access: 27 December 2016, 356 pp., 2000.
Wolken, G., Bliss, A., Hock, R., Whorton, E., Braun, J., Liljedahl, A., Zhang, J., Youcha, E., Schulla, J., Gusmeroli, A., Aubry-Wake, C., Beedlow, A. C., and Hoffman, A.: Susitna-Watana Hydroelectric Project (FERC No. 14241) Glacier and Runoff Changes Study, Final Study Report, 2015.
Yuan, X., Roundy, J. K., Wood, E. F., and Sheffield, J.: Seasonal forecasting of global hydrologic extremes: system development and evaluation over GEWEX basins, B. Am. Meteorol. Soc., 96, 1895–1912, https://doi.org/10.1175/BAMS-D-14-00003.1, 2015.
Zeng, H., Jia, G., and Epstein, H.: Recent changes in phenology over the northern high latitudes detected from multi-satellite data, Environ. Res. Lett., 6, 045508, https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/6/4/045508, 2011.
Short summary
We know that climate is changing quickly in the Far North (the Arctic and sub-Arctic). Hydropower continues to grow in this region because water resources are perceived to be plentiful. However, with changes in glacier extent and permafrost, and more extreme events, will those resources prove reliable into the future? This study amasses the evidence that quantitative hydrology modeling and uncertainty assessment have matured to the point where they should be used in water resource planning.
We know that climate is changing quickly in the Far North (the Arctic and sub-Arctic)....