Hydrology and Earth System Sciences
Hydrology and Earth System Sciences
HESS
Articles | Volume 30, issue 4
Articles | Volume 30, issue 4
https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-30-905-2026
© Author(s) 2026. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-30-905-2026
© Author(s) 2026. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
Articles | Volume 30, issue 4
Research article
 | 
17 Feb 2026
Research article |  | 17 Feb 2026

UK Hydrological Outlook using Historic Weather Analogues

Wilson Chan, Katie A. Facer-Childs, Maliko Tanguy, Eugene Magee, Burak Bulut, Nicky Stringer, Jeff Knight, and Jamie Hannaford

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Short summary
The UK Hydrological Outlook river flow forecasting system recently implemented the Historic Weather Analogues method. The method improves winter river flow forecast skill across the UK, especially in upland, fast-responding catchments with low catchment storage. Forecast skill is highest in winter due to accurate prediction of atmospheric circulation patterns like the North Atlantic Oscillation. The Ensemble Streamflow prediction method remains a robust benchmark, especially for other seasons.
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