Articles | Volume 30, issue 3
https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-30-757-2026
© Author(s) 2026. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-30-757-2026
© Author(s) 2026. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
Better continental-scale streamflow predictions for Australia: LSTM as a land surface model post-processor and standalone hydrological model
Commonwealth Scientific and Industrial Research Organisation (CSIRO), Clayton 3168, Australia
James C. Bennett
Commonwealth Scientific and Industrial Research Organisation (CSIRO), Clayton 3168, Australia
David E. Robertson
Commonwealth Scientific and Industrial Research Organisation (CSIRO), Clayton 3168, Australia
Jean-Michel Perraud
Commonwealth Scientific and Industrial Research Organisation (CSIRO), Mountain View 2460, Australia
Andrew J. Frost
Australian Bureau of Meteorology (BoM), Sydney 2000, Australia
Eric A. Lehmann
Commonwealth Scientific and Industrial Research Organisation (CSIRO), Mountain View 2460, Australia
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EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2026-666, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2026-666, 2026
This preprint is open for discussion and under review for Hydrology and Earth System Sciences (HESS).
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This study develops and tests a new system that combines satellite, radar, and rain gauge measurements to produce hourly rainfall maps at 2-kilometre resolution across Australia. The results show clearer and more reliable rainfall patterns than existing operational methods and products. The approach is efficient and supports both real-time monitoring and the reconstruction of historical rainfall. It also provides a practical reference for large-scale rainfall analysis in other regions.
Kevin K. W. Cheung, Fei Ji, Nidhi Nishant, Jin Teng, James Bennett, and De Li Liu
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 29, 3527–3543, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-29-3527-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-29-3527-2025, 2025
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This study evaluates two reanalysis datasets, which are critical in climate, weather research, and water resources analysis, for the Australian region in terms of simulating daily mean precipitation and six other selected precipitation extremes. While spatial patterns of mean precipitation are well reproduced, substantial biases exist in precipitation variability, trends, and extremes. Caution in applying these datasets is thus advised in terms of the latter aspects.
Arash Aghakhani, David E. Robertson, and Valentijn R. N. Pauwels
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Australia's shifting climate, with recurring droughts and wet periods, makes streamflow prediction challenging. This study combines GR4J model with machine learning to improve daily streamflow forecasts in Western Victoria. By identifying key factors affecting river flow, it offers valuable insights for water management. The findings show that machine learning can reveal limitations in traditional models, leading to more accurate predictions in drought-prone regions.
Stephanie R. Clark, Julien Lerat, Jean-Michel Perraud, and Peter Fitch
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 28, 1191–1213, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-1191-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-1191-2024, 2024
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To determine if deep learning models are in general a viable alternative to traditional hydrologic modelling techniques in Australian catchments, a comparison of river–runoff predictions is made between traditional conceptual models and deep learning models in almost 500 catchments spread over the continent. It is found that the deep learning models match or outperform the traditional models in over two-thirds of the river catchments, indicating feasibility in a wide variety of conditions.
Jenny Choo, Nagur Cherukuru, Eric Lehmann, Matt Paget, Aazani Mujahid, Patrick Martin, and Moritz Müller
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This study presents the first observation of water quality changes over space and time in the coastal systems of Sarawak, Malaysian Borneo, using remote sensing technologies. While our findings demonstrate that the southwestern coast of Sarawak is within local water quality standards, historical patterns of water quality degradation that were detected can help to alert local authorities and enhance management and monitoring strategies of coastal waters in this region.
Keirnan Fowler, Murray Peel, Margarita Saft, Tim J. Peterson, Andrew Western, Lawrence Band, Cuan Petheram, Sandra Dharmadi, Kim Seong Tan, Lu Zhang, Patrick Lane, Anthony Kiem, Lucy Marshall, Anne Griebel, Belinda E. Medlyn, Dongryeol Ryu, Giancarlo Bonotto, Conrad Wasko, Anna Ukkola, Clare Stephens, Andrew Frost, Hansini Gardiya Weligamage, Patricia Saco, Hongxing Zheng, Francis Chiew, Edoardo Daly, Glen Walker, R. Willem Vervoort, Justin Hughes, Luca Trotter, Brad Neal, Ian Cartwright, and Rory Nathan
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 26, 6073–6120, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-26-6073-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-26-6073-2022, 2022
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Recently, we have seen multi-year droughts tending to cause shifts in the relationship between rainfall and streamflow. In shifted catchments that have not recovered, an average rainfall year produces less streamflow today than it did pre-drought. We take a multi-disciplinary approach to understand why these shifts occur, focusing on Australia's over-10-year Millennium Drought. We evaluate multiple hypotheses against evidence, with particular focus on the key role of groundwater processes.
Hapu Arachchige Prasantha Hapuarachchi, Mohammed Abdul Bari, Aynul Kabir, Mohammad Mahadi Hasan, Fitsum Markos Woldemeskel, Nilantha Gamage, Patrick Daniel Sunter, Xiaoyong Sophie Zhang, David Ewen Robertson, James Clement Bennett, and Paul Martinus Feikema
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 26, 4801–4821, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-26-4801-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-26-4801-2022, 2022
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Methodology for developing an operational 7-day ensemble streamflow forecasting service for Australia is presented. The methodology is tested for 100 catchments to learn the characteristics of different NWP rainfall forecasts, the effect of post-processing, and the optimal ensemble size and bootstrapping parameters. Forecasts are generated using NWP rainfall products post-processed by the CHyPP model, the GR4H hydrologic model, and the ERRIS streamflow post-processor inbuilt in the SWIFT package
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Short summary
Predicting river flow accurately is crucial for managing water resources, especially in a changing climate. This study used deep learning to improve streamflow predictions across Australia. By either enhancing existing models or working independently with climate data, the deep learning approaches provided more reliable results than traditional methods. These findings can help water managers better plan for floods, droughts, and long-term water availability.
Predicting river flow accurately is crucial for managing water resources, especially in a...