Hydrology and Earth System Sciences
Hydrology and Earth System Sciences
HESS
Articles | Volume 30, issue 20
Articles | Volume 30, issue 20
https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-30-6599-2026
© Author(s) 2026. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-30-6599-2026
© Author(s) 2026. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
Articles | Volume 30, issue 20
Research article
 | 
27 Oct 2026
Research article |  | 27 Oct 2026

Non-stationary low-flow frequency analysis with mixed Weibull components and Copula-based dependence framework

Farhana Sweeta Fitriana, Svenja Fischer, Gabriele Weigelhofer, Johannes Laimighofer, and Gregor Laaha

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Short summary
This study improves the estimation of design low flows in rivers under changing climate conditions. We analysed records from more than 700 near-natural European catchments and developed a framework that allows low-flow risk to change over time and differ between summer and winter, including how the seasons are linked. Results show that assuming a constant climate can under-overestimate low-flow events. Accounting for change gives more reliable design values for planning under a warming climate.
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