Hydrology and Earth System Sciences
Hydrology and Earth System Sciences
HESS
Articles | Volume 30, issue 20
Articles | Volume 30, issue 20
https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-30-6531-2026
© Author(s) 2026. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-30-6531-2026
© Author(s) 2026. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
Articles | Volume 30, issue 20
Research article
 | 
23 Oct 2026
Research article |  | 23 Oct 2026

Characterizing Climate-Driven Shifts in Chilean Rainfall Regimes with a Hybrid Hidden Markov–Copula Framework

Mauricio Herrera-Marín, Francisca Kleisinger, Diego Rivera, Andrés Wilson, and Alex Godoy-Faundez

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Short summary
Chile’s changing rainfall makes water planning more difficult. Using decades of rainfall observations and climate records, we identified five recurring weather patterns and simulated rainfall across the country. We found that wet weather patterns have become less persistent over four decades, alongside rising ocean temperatures. Tests against observations from 2022 showed that the simulations captured rainfall uncertainty well. These results can help assess drought and flood risks.
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