Articles | Volume 30, issue 2
https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-30-421-2026
https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-30-421-2026
Technical note
 | 
28 Jan 2026
Technical note |  | 28 Jan 2026

Technical note: Including hydrologic impact definition in climate projection uncertainty partitioning: a case study of the Central American mid-summer drought

Edwin P. Maurer and Iris T. Stewart

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The Mesoamerican mid-summer drought: the impact of its definition on occurrences and recent changes
Edwin P. Maurer, Iris T. Stewart, Kenneth Joseph, and Hugo G. Hidalgo
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 26, 1425–1437, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-26-1425-2022,https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-26-1425-2022, 2022
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Cited articles

Aitken, G., Beevers, L., Parry, S., and Facer-Childs, K.: Partitioning model uncertainty in multi-model ensemble river flow projections, Climatic Change, 176, 153, https://doi.org/10.1007/s10584-023-03621-1, 2023. 
Alfaro, E. J.: Caracterización del “veranillo” en dos cuencas de la vertiente del Pacífico de Costa Rica, América Central, Rev. Biol. Trop. J. Trop. Biol. Conserv., 62, 1–15, https://doi.org/10.15517/rbt.v62i4.20010, 2014. 
Anderson, T., Anchukaitis, K., Pons, D., and Taylor, M.: Multiscale trends and precipitation extremes in the Central American Midsummer Drought, Environmental Research Letters, 14, 124016, https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/ab5023, 2019. 
Bosshard, T., Carambia, M., Goergen, K., Kotlarski, S., Krahe, P., Zappa, M., and Schär, C.: Quantifying uncertainty sources in an ensemble of hydrological climate-impact projections, Water Resources Research, 49, 1523–1536, https://doi.org/10.1029/2011WR011533, 2013. 
Cannon, A. J., Sobie, S. R., and Murdock, T. Q.: Bias Correction of GCM Precipitation by Quantile Mapping: How Well Do Methods Preserve Changes in Quantiles and Extremes?, Journal of Climate, 28, 6938–6959, https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-14-00754.1, 2015. 
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Short summary
Climate change impacts on a hydrologic phenomenon termed the mid-summer drought (MSD), affecting water and food security of smallholder farmers in Central America, depends on how the MSD was defined. We used many climate model projections and MSD definitions to quantify the sources of uncertainty in future MSD characteristics in Nicaragua for varying levels of global warming. We found that the definition can change where the MSD occurs but it does not add substantially to the total uncertainty.
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