Hydrology and Earth System Sciences
Hydrology and Earth System Sciences
HESS
Articles | Volume 30, issue 2
Articles | Volume 30, issue 2
https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-30-421-2026
© Author(s) 2026. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-30-421-2026
© Author(s) 2026. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
Articles | Volume 30, issue 2
Technical note
 | 
28 Jan 2026
Technical note |  | 28 Jan 2026

Technical note: Including hydrologic impact definition in climate projection uncertainty partitioning: a case study of the Central American mid-summer drought

Edwin P. Maurer and Iris T. Stewart

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Short summary
Climate change impacts on a hydrologic phenomenon termed the mid-summer drought (MSD), affecting water and food security of smallholder farmers in Central America, depends on how the MSD was defined. We used many climate model projections and MSD definitions to quantify the sources of uncertainty in future MSD characteristics in Nicaragua for varying levels of global warming. We found that the definition can change where the MSD occurs but it does not add substantially to the total uncertainty.
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