Articles | Volume 30, issue 12
https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-30-3903-2026
© Author(s) 2026. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-30-3903-2026
© Author(s) 2026. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
Research article
| 
24 Jun 2026
Research article |
| 24 Jun 2026
| 24 Jun 2026
Assessing future streamflow in Cyprus through hydrological model calibration under non-stationary climate and regional climate model ensemble selection
Ioannis Sofokleous
CORRESPONDING AUTHOR
Energy, Environment & Water Research Center (EEWRC), The Cyprus Institute, Nicosia, Cyprus
George Zittis
Climate and Atmosphere Research Centre (CARE-C), The Cyprus Institute, Nicosia, Cyprus
Gerald Dörflinger
Water Development Department, Nicosia, Cyprus
Adriana Bruggeman
Energy, Environment & Water Research Center (EEWRC), The Cyprus Institute, Nicosia, Cyprus
Related authors
Mohsen Amini Fasakhodi, Hakan Djuma, Ioannis Sofokleous, Marinos Eliades, and Adriana Bruggeman
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 28, 5209–5227, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-5209-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-5209-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
This study examined the water use of pine and cypress trees in a semiarid Mediterranean forest environment. We applied a widely used land surface model (Noah-MP) to simulate the water balance of the ecosystem. We found good modeling results for soil moisture. However, the model underestimated the transpiration of the trees during the dry summer months. These findings indicate that more research is needed to improve the modeling of ecosystem responses to climate and land use change.
Moetasim Ashfaq, Erika Coppola, Chris Lennard, Claas Teichmann, Deeksha Rastogi, Elias Massoud, Erasmo Buonomo, Eun-Soon Im, George Zittis, Jason P. Evans, Jesus Fernandez, Katherine J. Evans, Maria Leidinice da Silva, Marianna Adinolfi, Melissa Bukovsky, Rosmeri Porfirio da Rocha, Shabeh ul Hasson, Silvina A. Solman, Stefan Sobolowski, Sushant Das, Swen Brands, Tereza Cavazos, Thanh Ngo-Duc, and Xuejie Gao
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2026-2649, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2026-2649, 2026
This preprint is open for discussion and under review for Geoscientific Model Development (GMD).
Short summary
Short summary
Producing reliable regional climate projections requires carefully selecting which global climate models drive them. We developed a transparent and reproducible framework to identify a balanced, representative subset of models for the Coordinated Regional Climate Downscaling Experiment, a major international effort to generate high-resolution climate projections worldwide. While designed for this initiative, the framework is broadly applicable to other models sub-selection efforts.
Andreas Karpasitis, Panos Hadjinicolaou, and George Zittis
Geosci. Model Dev., 19, 345–367, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-19-345-2026, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-19-345-2026, 2026
Short summary
Short summary
This study introduces the Modified Spatial Efficiency metric to more rigorously evaluate how well climate models reproduce observed spatial patterns, addressing a long-standing challenge in model assessment. It demonstrates robust performance across a wide range of conditions, capturing spatial structures in an intuitive and physically meaningful way. This new metric offers researchers an improved tool for evaluating and inter-comparing climate models.
Mohsen Amini Fasakhodi, Hakan Djuma, Ioannis Sofokleous, Marinos Eliades, and Adriana Bruggeman
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 28, 5209–5227, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-5209-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-5209-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
This study examined the water use of pine and cypress trees in a semiarid Mediterranean forest environment. We applied a widely used land surface model (Noah-MP) to simulate the water balance of the ecosystem. We found good modeling results for soil moisture. However, the model underestimated the transpiration of the trees during the dry summer months. These findings indicate that more research is needed to improve the modeling of ecosystem responses to climate and land use change.
Georgia Lazoglou, Theo Economou, Christina Anagnostopoulou, George Zittis, Anna Tzyrkalli, Pantelis Georgiades, and Jos Lelieveld
Geosci. Model Dev., 17, 4689–4703, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-4689-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-4689-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
This study focuses on the important issue of the drizzle bias effect in regional climate models, described by an over-prediction of the number of rainy days while underestimating associated precipitation amounts. For this purpose, two distinct methodologies are applied and rigorously evaluated. These results are encouraging for using the multivariate machine learning method random forest to increase the accuracy of climate models concerning the projection of the number of wet days.
Assaf Hochman, Francesco Marra, Gabriele Messori, Joaquim G. Pinto, Shira Raveh-Rubin, Yizhak Yosef, and Georgios Zittis
Earth Syst. Dynam., 13, 749–777, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-13-749-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-13-749-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
Gaining a complete understanding of extreme weather, from its physical drivers to its impacts on society, is important in supporting future risk reduction and adaptation measures. Here, we provide a review of the available scientific literature, knowledge gaps and key open questions in the study of extreme weather events over the vulnerable eastern Mediterranean region.
Cited articles
Asadieh, B. and Krakauer, N. Y.: Global change in streamflow extremes under climate change over the 21st century, Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 21, 5863–5874, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-21-5863-2017, 2017.
Bağçaci, S. Ç., Yucel, I., Duzenli, E., and Yilmaz, M. T.: Intercomparison of the expected change in the temperature and the precipitation retrieved from CMIP6 and CMIP5 climate projections: A Mediterranean hot spot case, Turkey, Atmos. Res., 256, 105576, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.atmosres.2021.105576, 2021.
Broderick, C., Matthews, T., Wilby, R. L., Bastola, S., and Murphy, C.: Transferability of hydrological models and ensemble averaging methods between contrasting climatic periods, Water Resour. Res., 52, 8343–8373, https://doi.org/10.1002/2016WR018850, 2016.
Camera, C., Bruggeman, A., Hadjinicolaou, P., Pashiardis, S., and Lange, M. A.: Evaluation of interpolation techniques for the creation of gridded daily precipitation (1×1 km2); Cyprus, 1980–2010, J. Geophys. Res.-Atmos., 119, 693–712, https://doi.org/10.1002/2013JD020611, 2014.
Camera, C., Zomeni, Z., Noller, J. S., Zissimos, A. M., Christoforou, I. C., and Bruggeman, A.: A high resolution map of soil types and physical properties for Cyprus: A digital soil mapping optimization, Geoderma, 285, 35–49, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.geoderma.2016.09.019, 2017.
Camera, C., Bruggeman, A., Zittis, G., Sofokleous, I., and Arnault, J.: Simulation of extreme rainfall and streamflow events in small Mediterranean watersheds with a one-way-coupled atmospheric–hydrologic modelling system, Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 20, 2791–2810, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-20-2791-2020, 2020.
Cannon, A. J.: MBC: Multivariate Bias Correction of Climate Model Outputs: November 12, 2024 Release (Version 0.10-7), CRAN [code], https://CRAN.R-project.org/package=MBC (last access: 17 June 2026), 2024.
Cannon, A. J., Sobie, S. R., and Murdock, T. Q.: Bias correction of GCM precipitation by quantile mapping: how well do methods preserve changes in quantiles and extremes?, J. Climate, 28, 6938–6959, https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-14-00754.1, 2015.
Christensen, J. H., Boberg, F., Christensen, O. B., and Lucas-Picher, P.: On the need for bias correction of regional climate change projections of temperature and precipitation, Geophys. Res. Lett., 35, L20709, https://doi.org/10.1029/2008GL035694, 2008.
Christofi, C., Bruggeman, A., Kuells, C., and Constantinou, C.: Hydrochemical evolution of groundwater in gabbro of the Troodos Fractured Aquifer. A comprehensive approach, Appl. Geochem., 114, 104524, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.apgeochem.2020.104524, 2020.
Citrini, A., Lazoglou, G., Bruggeman, A., Zittis, G., Beretta, G. P., and Camera, C. A.: Advancing Hydrologic Modelling Through Bias Correcting Weather Radar Data: The Valgrosina Case Study in the Italian Alps, Hydrol. Process., 38, e15339, https://doi.org/10.1002/hyp.15339, 2024.
Coron, L., Andréassian, V., Perrin, C., Lerat, J., Vaze, J., Bourqui, M., and Hendrickx, F.: Crash testing hydrological models in contrasted climate conditions: An experiment on 216 Australian catchments, Water Resour. Res., 48, W05552, https://doi.org/10.1029/2011WR011721, 2012.
Coron, L., Delaigue, O., Thirel, G., Dorchies, D., Perrin, C., and Michel, C.: airGR: Suite of GR Hydrological Models for Precipitation-Runoff Modelling (Version 1.7.6), GitHub [code], https://github.com/cran/airGR (last access: 17 June 2026), 2023.
Cos, J., Doblas-Reyes, F., Jury, M., Marcos, R., Bretonnière, P.-A., and Samsó, M.: The Mediterranean climate change hotspot in the CMIP5 and CMIP6 projections, Earth Syst. Dynam., 13, 321–340, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-13-321-2022, 2022.
Dakhlaoui, H., Ruelland, D., Tramblay, Y., and Bargaoui, Z.: Evaluating the robustness of conceptual rainfall-runoff models under climate variability in northern Tunisia, J. Hydrol., 550, 201–217, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jhydrol.2017.04.032, 2017.
Dakhlaoui, H., Ruelland, D., and Tramblay, Y.: A bootstrap-based differential split-sample test to assess the transferability of conceptual rainfall-runoff models under past and future climate variability, J. Hydrol., 575, 470–486, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jhydrol.2019.05.056, 2019.
Da Silva, R. M., Santos, C. A., Moreira, M., Corte-Real, J., Silva, V. C., and Medeiros, I. C.: Rainfall and river flow trends using Mann–Kendall and Sen's slope estimator statistical tests in the Cobres River basin, Nat. Hazards, 77, 1205–1221, https://doi.org/10.1007/s11069-015-1644-7, 2015.
Fowler, K., Peel, M., Western, A., and Zhang, L.: Improved rainfall-runoff calibration for drying climate: Choice of objective function, Water Resour. Res., 54, 3392–3408, https://doi.org/10.1029/2017WR022466, 2018.
Fowler, K., Knoben, W., Peel, M., Peterson, T., Ryu, D., Saft, M., Seo, K. W., and Western, A.: Many commonly used rainfall-runoff models lack long, slow dynamics: Implications for runoff projections, Water Resour. Res., 56, e2019WR025286, https://doi.org/10.1029/2019WR025286, 2020.
Gallart, F., Prat, N., García-Roger, E. M., Latron, J., Rieradevall, M., Llorens, P., Barberá, G. G., Brito, D., De Girolamo, A. M., Lo Porto, A., Buffagni, A., Erba, S., Neves, R., Nikolaidis, N. P., Perrin, J. L., Querner, E. P., Quiñonero, J. M., Tournoud, M. G., Tzoraki, O., Skoulikidis, N., Gómez, R., Sánchez-Montoya, M. M., and Froebrich, J.: A novel approach to analysing the regimes of temporary streams in relation to their controls on the composition and structure of aquatic biota, Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 16, 3165–3182, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-16-3165-2012, 2012.
Grigg, A. H. and Hughes, J. D.: Nonstationarity driven by multidecadal change in catchment groundwater storage: A test of modifications to a common rainfall–run-off model, Hydrol. Process., 32, 3675–3688, https://doi.org/10.1002/hyp.13282, 2018.
Gudmundsson, L., Boulange, J., Do, H. X., Gosling, S. N., Grillakis, M. G., Koutroulis, A. G., Leonard, M., Liu, J., Müller Schmied, H., Papadimitriou, L., Pokhrel, Y., Seneviratne, S. I., Satoh, Y., Thiery, W., Westra, S., Zhang, X., and Zhao, F.: Globally observed trends in mean and extreme river flow attributed to climate change, Science, 371, 1159–1162, https://doi.org/10.1126/science.aba3996, 2021.
Guo, D., Zheng, F., Gupta, H., and Maier, H. R.: On the robustness of conceptual rainfall-runoff models to calibration and evaluation data set splits selection: A large sample investigation, Water Resour. Res., 56, e2019WR026752, https://doi.org/10.1029/2019WR026752, 2020.
Gutiérrez, J. M., Jones, R. G., Narisma, G. T., Alves, L. M., Amjad, M., Gorodetskaya, I. V., Grose, M., Klutse, N. A. B., Krakovska, S., Li, J., Martínez-Castro, D., Mearns, L. O., Mernild, S. H., Ngo-Duc, T., van den Hurk, B., and Yoon, J.-H.: Atlas, in: Climate Change 2021: The Physical Science Basis, Contribution of Working Group I to the Sixth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, edited by: Masson-Delmotte, V., Zhai, P., Pirani, A., Connors, S. L., Péan, C., Berger, S., Caud, N., Chen, Y., Goldfarb, L., Gomis, M. I., Huang, M., Leitzell, K., Lonnoy, E., Matthews, J. B. R., Maycock, T. K., Waterfield, T., Yelekçi, O., Yu, R., and Zhou, B., Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, United Kingdom and New York, NY, USA, 1927–2058, https://doi.org/10.1017/9781009157896.021, 2021.
Gutiérrez-Jurado, K. Y., Partington, D., Batelaan, O., Cook, P., and Shanafield, M.: What triggers streamflow for intermittent rivers and ephemeral streams in low-gradient catchments in Mediterranean climates, Water Resour. Res., 55, 9926–9946, https://doi.org/10.1029/2019WR025041, 2019.
Hargreaves, G. H. and Samani, Z. A.: Reference crop evapotranspiration from temperature, Appl. Eng. Agric., 1, 96–99, https://doi.org/10.13031/2013.26773, 1985.
Hoerling, M., Eischeid, J., Perlwitz, J., Quan, X., Zhang, T., and Pegion, P.: On the increased frequency of Mediterranean drought, J. Climate, 25, 2146–2161, https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-11-00296.1, 2012.
Hughes, J., Potter, N., Zhang, L., and Bridgart, R.: Conceptual Model Modification and the Millennium Drought of Southeastern Australia, Water, 13, 669, https://doi.org/10.3390/w13050669, 2021.
Jacob, D., Teichmann, C., Sobolowski, S., Katragkou, E., Anders, I., Belda, M., Benestad, R., Boberg, F., Buonomo, E., Cardoso, R. M., Casanueva, A., Christensen, O. B., Christensen, J. H., Coppola, E., De Cruz, L., Davin, E. L., Dobler, A., Domínguez, M., Fealy, R., Fernandez, J., Gaertner, M. A., García-Díez, M., Giorgi, F., Gobiet, A., Goergen, K., Gómez-Navarro, J. J., González Alemán, J. J., Gutiérrez, C., Gutiérrez, J. M., Güttler, I., Haensler, A., Halenka, T., Jerez, S., Jiménez-Guerrero, P., Jones, R. G., Keuler, K., Kjellström, E., Knist, S., Kotlarski, S., Maraun, D., van Meijgaard, E., Mercogliano, P., Montávez, J. P., Navarra, A., Nikulin, G., de Noblet-Ducoudré, N., Panitz, H.-J., Pfeifer, S., Piazza, M., Pichelli, E., Pietikäinen, J.-P., Prein, A. F., Preuschmann, S., Rechid, D., Rockel, B., Romera, R., Sánchez, E., Sieck, K., Soares, P. M. M., Somot, S., Srnec, L., Sørland, S. L., Termonia, P., Truhetz, H., Vautard, R., Warrach-Sagi, K., and Wulfmeyer, V.: Regional climate downscaling over Europe: perspectives from the EURO-CORDEX community, Reg. Environ. Change, 20, 51, https://doi.org/10.1007/s10113-020-01606-9, 2020.
Ji, H. K., Mirzaei, M., Lai, S. H., Dehghani, A., and Dehghani, A.: The robustness of conceptual rainfall-runoff modelling under climate variability – A review, J. Hydrol., 621, 129666, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jhydrol.2023.129666, 2023.
Klemeš, V.: Operational testing of hydrological simulation models, Hydrol. Sci. J., 31, 13–24, https://doi.org/10.1080/02626668609491024, 1986.
Kling, H., Fuchs, M., and Paulin, M.: Runoff conditions in the upper Danube basin under an ensemble of climate change scenarios, J. Hydrol., 424, 264–277, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jhydrol.2012.01.011, 2012.
Lazoglou, G., Hadjinicolaou, P., Sofokleous, I., Bruggeman, A., and Zittis, G.: Climate change and extremes in the mediterranean island of cyprus: from historical trends to future projections, Environ. Res. Commun., 6, 095020, https://doi.org/10.1088/2515-7620/ad7927, 2024.
Le Coz, M., Bruggeman, A., Camera, C., and Lange, M. A.: Impact of precipitation variability on the performance of a rainfall–runoff model in Mediterranean mountain catchments, Hydrol. Sci. J., 61, 507–518, https://doi.org/10.1080/02626667.2015.1051983, 2016.
Leduc, C., Pulido-Bosch, A., and Remini, B.: Anthropization of groundwater resources in the Mediterranean region: processes and challenges, Hydrogeol. J., 25, 1529–1547, https://doi.org/10.1007/s10040-017-1572-6, 2017.
Lespinas, F., Ludwig, W., and Heussner, S.: Hydrological and climatic uncertainties associated with modeling the impact of climate change on water resources of small Mediterranean coastal rivers, J. Hydrol., 511, 403–422, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jhydrol.2014.01.033, 2014.
Martínez-Fernández, V., Van Oorschot, M., De Smit, J., González del Tánago, M., and Buijse, A. D.: Modelling feedbacks between geomorphological and riparian vegetation responses under climate change in a Mediterranean context, Earth Surf. Proc. Land., 43, 1825–1835, https://doi.org/10.1002/esp.4356, 2018.
Marx, A., Kumar, R., Thober, S., Rakovec, O., Wanders, N., Zink, M., Wood, E. F., Pan, M., Sheffield, J., and Samaniego, L.: Climate change alters low flows in Europe under global warming of 1.5, 2, and 3 °C, Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 1017–1032, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-22-1017-2018, 2018.
Mascaro, G., Viola, F., and Deidda, R.: Evaluation of Precipitation From EURO-CORDEX Regional Climate Simulations in a Small-Scale Mediterranean Site, J. Geophys. Res.-Atmos., 123, 1604–1625, https://doi.org/10.1002/2017JD027463, 2018.
Masseroni, D., Camici, S., Cislaghi, A., Vacchiano, G., Massari, C., and Brocca, L.: The 63-year changes in annual streamflow volumes across Europe with a focus on the Mediterranean basin, Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 25, 5589–5601, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-25-5589-2021, 2021.
Meinshausen, M., Smith, S. J., Calvin, K., Daniel, J. S., Kainuma, M. L. T., Lamarque, J.-F., Matsumoto, K., Montzka, S. A., Raper, S. C. B., Riahi, K., Thomson, A., Velders, G. J. M., and van Vuuren, D. P. P.: The RCP greenhouse gas concentrations and their extensions from 1765 to 2300, Climatic Change, 109, 213–241, https://doi.org/10.1007/s10584-011-0156-z, 2011.
Meyer, J., Kohn, I., Stahl, K., Hakala, K., Seibert, J., and Cannon, A. J.: Effects of univariate and multivariate bias correction on hydrological impact projections in alpine catchments, Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 1339–1354, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-23-1339-2019, 2019.
Moriasi, D. N., Arnold, J. G., Van Liew, M. W., Bingner, R. L., Harmel, R. D., and Veith, T. L.: Model evaluation guidelines for systematic quantification of accuracy in watershed simulations, T. ASABE, 50, 885–900, https://doi.org/10.13031/2013.23153, 2007.
Muñoz-Castro, E., Mendoza, P. A., Vásquez, N., and Vargas, X.: Exploring parameter (dis) agreement due to calibration metric selection in conceptual rainfall–runoff models, Hydrol. Sci. J., 68, 1754–1768, https://doi.org/10.1080/02626667.2023.2231434, 2023.
Myronidis, D., Ioannou, K., Fotakis, D., and Dörflinger, G.: Streamflow and hydrological drought trend analysis and forecasting in Cyprus, Water Resour. Manage., 32, 1759–1776, https://doi.org/10.1007/s11269-018-1902-z, 2018.
Nash, J. E. and Sutcliffe, J. V.: River flow forecasting through conceptual models part I – A discussion of principles, J. Hydrol., 10, 282–290, https://doi.org/10.1016/0022-1694(70)90255-6, 1970.
Pascual, D., Pla, E., Lopez-Bustins, J. A., Retana, J., and Terradas, J.: Impacts of climate change on water resources in the Mediterranean Basin: A case study in Catalonia, Spain, Hydrol. Sci. J., 60, 2132–2147, https://doi.org/10.1080/02626667.2014.947290, 2015.
Pedersen, J. S. T., Santos, F. D., van Vuuren, D., Gupta, J., Coelho, R. E., Aparício, B. A., and Swart, R.: An assessment of the performance of scenarios against historical global emissions for IPCC reports, Global Environ. Chang., 66, 102199, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2020.102199, 2021.
Perrin, C., Michel, C., and Andréassian, V.: Improvement of a parsimonious model for streamflow simulation, J. Hydrol., 279, 275–289, https://doi.org/10.1016/S0022-1694(03)00225-7, 2003.
Petheram, C., Rustomji, P., McVicar, T. R., Cai, W., Chiew, F. H. S., Vleeshouwer, J., Van Niel, T. G., Li, L., Cresswell, R. G., Donohue, R. J., Teng, J., and Perraud, J.-M.: Estimating the impact of projected climate change on runoff across the tropical savannas and semiarid rangelands of northern Australia, J. Hydrometeorol., 13, 483–503, https://doi.org/10.1175/JHM-D-11-062.1, 2012.
Ragab, R., Bromley, J., Dörflinger, G., and Katsikides, S.: IHMS – Integrated Hydrological Modelling System. Part 2. Application of linked unsaturated, DiCaSM and saturated zone, MODFLOW models on Kouris and Akrotiri catchments in Cyprus, Hydrol. Process., 24, 2681–2692, https://doi.org/10.1002/hyp.7682, 2010.
Raymond, F., Ullmann, A., Tramblay, Y., Drobinski, P., and Camberlin, P.: Evolution of Mediterranean extreme dry spells during the wet season under climate change, Reg. Environ. Change, 19, 2339–2351, https://doi.org/10.1007/s10113-019-01526-3, 2019.
Refsgaard, J. C., Madsen, H., Andréassian, V., Arnbjerg-Nielsen, K., Davidson, T. A., Drews, M., Hamilton, D. P., Jeppesen, E., Kjellström, E., Olesen, J. E., Sonnenborg, T. O., Drote, D., Willems, P., and Christensen, J. H.: A framework for testing the ability of models to project climate change and its impacts, Climatic Change, 122, 271–282, https://doi.org/10.1007/s10584-013-0990-2, 2014.
Roudier, P., Andersson, J., Donnelly, C., Feyen, L., Greuell, W., and Ludwig, F.: Projections of future floods and hydrological droughts in Europe under a +2 °C global warming, Climatic Change, 135, 341–355, https://doi.org/10.1007/s10584-015-1570-4, 2016.
Sánchez-Gómez, A., Martínez-Pérez, S., Leduc, S., Sastre-Merlín, A., and Molina-Navarro, E.: Streamflow components and climate change: Lessons learnt and energy implications after hydrological modeling experiences in catchments with a Mediterranean climate, Energy Rep., 9, 277–291, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.egyr.2022.11.191, 2023.
Schneider, C., Laizé, C. L. R., Acreman, M. C., and Flörke, M.: How will climate change modify river flow regimes in Europe?, Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 17, 325–339, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-17-325-2013, 2013.
Seiller, G., Roy, R., and Anctil, F.: Influence of three common calibration metrics on the diagnosis of climate change impacts on water resources, J. Hydrol., 547, 280–295, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jhydrol.2017.02.004, 2017.
Senatore, A., Fuoco, D., Maiolo, M., Mendicino, G., Smiatek, G., and Kunstmann, H.: Evaluating the uncertainty of climate model structure and bias correction on the hydrological impact of projected climate change in a Mediterranean catchment, J. Hydrol.-Reg. Stud., 42, 101120, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ejrh.2022.101120, 2022.
Sofokleous, I., Bruggeman, A., Michaelides, S., Hadjinicolaou, P., Zittis, G., and Camera, C.: Comprehensive methodology for the evaluation of high-resolution wrf multiphysics precipitation simulations for small, topographically complex domains, J. Hydrometeorol., 22, 1169–1186, https://doi.org/10.1175/JHM-D-20-0110.1, 2021.
Sofokleous, I., Bruggeman, A., Camera, C., and Eliades, M.: Grid-based calibration of the WRF-Hydro with Noah-MP model with improved groundwater and transpiration process equations, J. Hydrol., 617, 128991, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jhydrol.2022.128991, 2023.
Sofokleous, I., Bruggeman, A., and Camera, C.: The role of parameterizations and model coupling on simulations of energy and water balances–Investigations with the atmospheric model WRF and the hydrologic model WRF-hydro, J. Geophys. Res.-Atmos., 129, e2023JD040335, https://doi.org/10.1029/2023JD040335, 2024.
Sofokleous, I., Camera, C., Hadjinicolaou, P., Zittis, G., Lange, M., Michaelides, S., Pashiardis, S., and Bruggeman, A.: CY-OBS: High-resolution (1 km × 1 km) gridded daily temperature and precipitation observations dataset for Cyprus (1980–2019) (Version 1.0.0), Zenodo [data set], https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.17272790, 2025.
Teng, J., Vaze, J., Chiew, F. H., Wang, B., and Perraud, J. M.: Estimating the relative uncertainties sourced from GCMs and hydrological models in modeling climate change impact on runoff, J. Hydrometeorol., 13, 122–139, https://doi.org/10.1175/JHM-D-11-058.1, 2012.
Teutschbein, C. and Seibert, J.: Bias correction of regional climate model simulations for hydrological climate-change impact studies: review and evaluation of different methods, J. Hydrol., 456–457, 12–29, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jhydrol.2012.05.052, 2012.
Thirel, G., Andréassian, V., Perrin, C., Audouy, J.-N., Berthet, L., Edwards, P., Folton, N., Furusho, C., Kuentz, A., Lerat, J., Lindström, G., Martin, E., Mathevet, T., Merz, R., Parajka, J., Ruelland, D., and Vaze, J.: Hydrology under change: an evaluation protocol to investigate how hydrological models deal with changing catchments, Hydrol. Sci. J., 60, 1184–1199, https://doi.org/10.1080/02626667.2014.967248, 2015.
Thrasher, B., Maurer, E. P., McKellar, C., and Duffy, P. B.: Technical Note: Bias correcting climate model simulated daily temperature extremes with quantile mapping, Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 16, 3309–3314, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-16-3309-2012, 2012.
Tramblay, Y., Koutroulis, A., Samaniego, L., Vicente-Serrano, S. M., Volaire, F., Boone, A., Le Page, M., Llasat, M. C., Albergel, C., Burak, S., Cailleret, M., Kalin, K. C., Davi, H., Dupuy, J. L., Greve, P., Grillakis, M., Hanich, L., Jarlan, L., Martin-StPaul, N., Martínez-Vilalta, J., Mouillot, F., Pulido-Velazquez, D., Quintana-Seguí, P., Renard, D., Turco, M., Türkeş, M., Trigo, R., Vidal, J. P., Vilagrosa, A., Zribi, M., and Polcher, J.: Challenges for drought assessment in the Mediterranean region under future climate scenarios, Earth-Sci. Rev., 210, 103348, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.earscirev.2020.103348, 2020.
Tuel, A. and Eltahir, E. A.: Why is the Mediterranean a climate change hot spot?, J. Climate, 33, 5829–5843, https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-19-0910.1, 2020.
Vaze, J., Post, D. A., Chiew, F. H. S., Perraud, J. M., Viney, N. R., and Teng, J.: Climate non-stationarity–validity of calibrated rainfall–runoff models for use in climate change studies, J. Hydrol., 394, 447–457, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jhydrol.2010.09.018, 2010.
Vicente-Serrano, S. M., Lopez-Moreno, J. I., Beguería, S., Lorenzo-Lacruz, J., Sanchez-Lorenzo, A., García-Ruiz, J. M., Azorin-Molina, C., Morán-Tejeda, E., Revuelto, J., Trigo, R., Coelho, F., and Espejo, F.: Evidence of increasing drought severity caused by temperature rise in southern Europe, Environ. Res. Lett., 9, 044001, https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/9/4/044001, 2014.
Wagener, T., Reinecke, R., and Pianosi, F.: On the evaluation of climate change impact models, Wires Clim. Change, 13, e772, https://doi.org/10.1002/wcc.772, 2022.
Water Development Department: Reassessment of the island's water resources and demands (TCP/CYP/8921), Ministry of Agriculture, Natural Resources and Environment of the Republic of Cyprus, Nicosia, Cyprus, https://www.moa.gov.cy/moa/wdd/wdd.nsf/All/5F171454D0B5FC45C22583D20022586B/$file/1_4_1.pdf?OpenElement (last access: 17 June 2026), 2002.
Udluft, P., Dünkeloh, A., Mederer, J., Kulls, C., and Schaller, J.: Re-evaluation of the groundwater resources of Cyprus – GRC project report, Geological Survey Department of Cyprus, Nicosia, Cyprus, https://www.moa.gov.cy/moa/gsd/gsd.nsf/dmlindex_en/dmlindex_en?opendocument (last access: 17 June 2026), 2006.
Willmott, C. J., Robeson, S. M., and Matsuura, K.: A refined index of model performance, Int. J. Climatol., 32, 2088–2094, https://doi.org/10.1002/joc.2419, 2012.
Wu, Y., Miao, C., Slater, L., Fan, X., Chai, Y., and Sorooshian, S.: Hydrological projections under CMIP5 and CMIP6: Sources and magnitudes of uncertainty, B. Am. Meteorol. Soc., 105, E59–E74, https://doi.org/10.1175/BAMS-D-23-0104.1, 2024.
Yang, W., Chen, H., Xu, C. Y., Huo, R., Chen, J., and Guo, S.: Temporal and spatial transferabilities of hydrological models under different climates and underlying surface conditions, J. Hydrol., 591, 125276, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jhydrol.2020.125276, 2020.
Zhang, L., Potter, N., Hickel, K., Zhang, Y., and Shao, Q.: Water balance modeling over variable time scales based on the Budyko framework–Model development and testing, J. Hydrol., 360, 117–131, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jhydrol.2008.07.021, 2008.
Zittis, G., Bruggeman, A., and Lelieveld, J.: Revisiting future extreme precipitation trends in the Mediterranean, Weather Clim. Extremes, 34, 100380, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.wace.2021.100380, 2021a.
Zittis, G., Hadjinicolaou, P., Almazroui, M., Bucchignani, E., Driouech, F., El Rhaz, K., Kurnaz, M. L., Nikulin, G., Hochman, A., Saaroni, H., Alpert, P., Önol, B., Batisati, M., and Lelieveld, J.: Business-as-usual will lead to super and ultra-extreme heatwaves in the Middle East and North Africa, npj Clim. Atmos. Sci., 4, 20, https://doi.org/10.1038/s41612-021-00178-7, 2021b.
Zittis, G., Almazroui, M., Alpert, P., Ciais, P., Cramer, W., Dahdal, Y., Fnais, M., Francis, D., Hadjinicolaou, P., Howari, F., Jrrar, A., Kaskaoutis, D. G., Kulmala, M., Lazoglou, G., Mihalopoulos, N., Lin, X., Rudich, Y., Sciare, J., Stenchikov, G., Xoplaki, E., and Lelieveld, J.: Climate change and weather extremes in the Eastern Mediterranean and Middle East, Rev. Geophys., 60, e2021RG000762, https://doi.org/10.1029/2021RG000762, 2022.
Zoumides, C., Bruggeman, A., Zachariadis, T., and Pashiardis, S.: Quantifying the poorly known role of groundwater in agriculture: the case of Cyprus, Water Resour. Manag., 27, 2501–2514, https://doi.org/10.1007/s11269-013-0299-y, 2013
Short summary
We developed a new method to improve numerical models that predict future water availability under climate change. The method works across different regions and climate scenarios. Applying the method to mountain river basins in the Eastern Mediterranean island of Cyprus showed that streamflow could drop by 39 % on average between 2030 and 2060, and by up to 70 % during the driest years. These findings help support better water planning in a changing climate.
We developed a new method to improve numerical models that predict future water availability...
