Hydrology and Earth System Sciences
Hydrology and Earth System Sciences
HESS
Articles | Volume 30, issue 12
Articles | Volume 30, issue 12
https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-30-3903-2026
© Author(s) 2026. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-30-3903-2026
© Author(s) 2026. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
Articles | Volume 30, issue 12
Research article
 | 
24 Jun 2026
Research article |  | 24 Jun 2026

Assessing future streamflow in Cyprus through hydrological model calibration under non-stationary climate and regional climate model ensemble selection

Ioannis Sofokleous, George Zittis, Gerald Dörflinger, and Adriana Bruggeman

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Short summary
We developed a new method to improve numerical models that predict future water availability under climate change. The method works across different regions and climate scenarios. Applying the method to mountain river basins in the Eastern Mediterranean island of Cyprus showed that streamflow could drop by 39 % on average between 2030 and 2060, and by up to 70 % during the driest years. These findings help support better water planning in a changing climate.
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