Articles | Volume 30, issue 2
https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-30-289-2026
© Author(s) 2026. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-30-289-2026
© Author(s) 2026. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
Research article
| Highlight paper
| 
22 Jan 2026
Research article | Highlight paper |
| 22 Jan 2026
| 22 Jan 2026
High resolution monthly precipitation isotope estimates across Australia from machine learning
Georgina Falster
CORRESPONDING AUTHOR
School of Physics, Chemistry and Earth Sciences, Adelaide University, Adelaide 5005, SA, Australia
The ARC Centre of Excellence for Climate Extremes, The Australian National University, Canberra 2601, ACT, Australia
Gab Abramowitz
Climate Change Research Centre, UNSW Sydney, Kensington 2052, NSW, Australia
Sanaa Hobeichi
Climate Change Research Centre, UNSW Sydney, Kensington 2052, NSW, Australia
The ARC Centre of Excellence for the Weather of the 21st Century, UNSW Sydney, Kensington 2052, NSW, Australia
Catherine Hughes
ANSTO, Lucas Heights 2234, NSW, Australia
School of Biological, Earth, and Environmental Sciences, UNSW Sydney, Kensington 2052, NSW, Australia
Pauline Treble
ANSTO, Lucas Heights 2234, NSW, Australia
School of Biological, Earth, and Environmental Sciences, UNSW Sydney, Kensington 2052, NSW, Australia
Nerilie J. Abram
Research School of Earth Sciences, The Australian National University, Canberra 2601, ACT, Australia
The ARC Centre of Excellence for the Weather of the 21st Century, The Australian National University, Canberra 2601, ACT, Australia
The Australian Centre for Excellence in Antarctic Science, The Australian National University, Canberra 2601, ACT, Australia
Michael I. Bird
College of Science and Engineering, James Cook University, Cairns 4878, Queensland, Australia
ARC Centre of Excellence for Indigenous and Environmental Histories and Futures, James Cook University, Cairns 4878, Queensland, Australia
Alexandre Cauquoin
Institute of Industrial Science, The University of Tokyo, Kashiwa 277-8574, Chiba, Japan
Bronwyn Dixon
School of Geography, Earth and Atmospheric Sciences, The University of Melbourne, Melbourne 3053, Victoria, Australia
Russell Drysdale
School of Geography, Earth and Atmospheric Sciences, The University of Melbourne, Melbourne 3053, Victoria, Australia
Chenhui Jin
ARC Centre of Excellence for the Weather of the 21st Century, Monash University, Melbourne 3800, Victoria, Australia
School of Earth Atmosphere and Environment, Monash University, Melbourne 3800, Victoria, Australia
Niels Munksgaard
College of Science and Engineering, James Cook University, Cairns 4878, Queensland, Australia
Bernadette Proemse
School of Natural Sciences, University of Tasmania, Hobart 7001, Tasmania, Australia
Jonathan J. Tyler
School of Physics, Chemistry and Earth Sciences, Adelaide University, Adelaide 5005, SA, Australia
Martin Werner
Alfred Wegener Institute Helmholtz Centre for Polar and Marine Research (AWI), 27570 Bremerhaven, Germany
Carol V. Tadros
ANSTO, Lucas Heights 2234, NSW, Australia
School of Biological, Earth, and Environmental Sciences, UNSW Sydney, Kensington 2052, NSW, Australia
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Georgina M. Falster, Nicky M. Wright, Nerilie J. Abram, Anna M. Ukkola, and Benjamin J. Henley
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 28, 1383–1401, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-1383-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-1383-2024, 2024
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megadroughtsare a natural feature of the Australian hydroclimate. Human-caused climate change is also driving a tendency towards longer droughts in eastern and southwestern Australia.
Moein Mellat, Amy R. Macfarlane, Camilla F. Brunello, Martin Werner, Martin Schneebeli, Ruzica Dadic, Stefanie Arndt, Kaisa-Riikka Mustonen, Jeffrey M. Welker, and Hanno Meyer
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-719, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-719, 2024
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Our research, utilizing data from the Arctic MOSAiC expedition, reveals how snow on Arctic sea ice changes due to weather conditions. By analyzing snow samples collected over a year, we found differences in snow layers that tell us about their origins and how they've been affected by the environment. We discovered variations in snow and vapour that reflect the influence of weather patterns and surface processes like wind and sublimation.
Qinggang Gao, Louise C. Sime, Alison J. McLaren, Thomas J. Bracegirdle, Emilie Capron, Rachael H. Rhodes, Hans Christian Steen-Larsen, Xiaoxu Shi, and Martin Werner
The Cryosphere, 18, 683–703, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-18-683-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-18-683-2024, 2024
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Antarctic precipitation is a crucial component of the climate system. Its spatio-temporal variability impacts sea level changes and the interpretation of water isotope measurements in ice cores. To better understand its climatic drivers, we developed water tracers in an atmospheric model to identify moisture source conditions from which precipitation originates. We find that mid-latitude surface winds exert an important control on moisture availability for Antarctic precipitation.
Christophe Leroy-Dos Santos, Elise Fourré, Cécile Agosta, Mathieu Casado, Alexandre Cauquoin, Martin Werner, Benedicte Minster, Frédéric Prié, Olivier Jossoud, Leila Petit, and Amaëlle Landais
The Cryosphere, 17, 5241–5254, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-17-5241-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-17-5241-2023, 2023
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In the face of global warming, understanding the changing water cycle and temperatures in polar regions is crucial. These factors directly impact the balance of ice sheets in the Arctic and Antarctic. By studying the composition of water vapor, we gain insights into climate variations. Our 2-year study at Dumont d’Urville station, Adélie Land, offers valuable data to refine models. Additionally, we demonstrate how modeling aids in interpreting signals from ice core samples in the region.
Lingwei Zhang, Tessa R. Vance, Alexander D. Fraser, Lenneke M. Jong, Sarah S. Thompson, Alison S. Criscitiello, and Nerilie J. Abram
The Cryosphere, 17, 5155–5173, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-17-5155-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-17-5155-2023, 2023
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Physical features in ice cores provide unique records of past variability. We identified 1–2 mm ice layers without bubbles in surface ice cores from Law Dome, East Antarctica, occurring on average five times per year. The origin of these bubble-free layers is unknown. In this study, we investigate whether they have the potential to record past atmospheric processes and circulation. We find that the bubble-free layers are linked to accumulation hiatus events and meridional moisture transport.
Leonie Villiger, Marina Dütsch, Sandrine Bony, Marie Lothon, Stephan Pfahl, Heini Wernli, Pierre-Etienne Brilouet, Patrick Chazette, Pierre Coutris, Julien Delanoë, Cyrille Flamant, Alfons Schwarzenboeck, Martin Werner, and Franziska Aemisegger
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 23, 14643–14672, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-23-14643-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-23-14643-2023, 2023
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This study evaluates three numerical simulations performed with an isotope-enabled weather forecast model and investigates the coupling between shallow trade-wind cumulus clouds and atmospheric circulations on different scales. We show that the simulations reproduce key characteristics of shallow trade-wind clouds as observed during the field experiment EUREC4A and that the spatial distribution of stable-water-vapour isotopes is shaped by the overturning circulation associated with these clouds.
Xiaoxu Shi, Martin Werner, Hu Yang, Roberta D'Agostino, Jiping Liu, Chaoyuan Yang, and Gerrit Lohmann
Clim. Past, 19, 2157–2175, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-19-2157-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-19-2157-2023, 2023
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The Last Glacial Maximum (LGM) marks the most recent extremely cold and dry time period of our planet. Using AWI-ESM, we quantify the relative importance of Earth's orbit, greenhouse gases (GHG) and ice sheets (IS) in determining the LGM climate. Our results suggest that both GHG and IS play important roles in shaping the LGM temperature. Continental ice sheets exert a major control on precipitation, atmospheric dynamics, and the intensity of El Niño–Southern Oscillation.
Yuheng Li, Kanon Kino, Alexandre Cauquoin, and Taikan Oki
Clim. Past, 19, 1891–1904, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-19-1891-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-19-1891-2023, 2023
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Our study using the isotope-enabled climate model MIROC5-iso model shows that lakes may have contributed to the Green Sahara during the mid-Holocene period (6000 years ago). The lakes induced cyclonic circulation response, enhancing the near-surface monsoon westerly flow and potentially humidifying the northwestern Sahara with the stronger West African Monsoon moving northward. Our findings provide valuable insights into understanding the presence of the Green Sahara during this period.
Xiaoxu Shi, Alexandre Cauquoin, Gerrit Lohmann, Lukas Jonkers, Qiang Wang, Hu Yang, Yuchen Sun, and Martin Werner
Geosci. Model Dev., 16, 5153–5178, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-16-5153-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-16-5153-2023, 2023
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We developed a new climate model with isotopic capabilities and simulated the pre-industrial and mid-Holocene periods. Despite certain regional model biases, the modeled isotope composition is in good agreement with observations and reconstructions. Based on our analyses, the observed isotope–temperature relationship in polar regions may have a summertime bias. Using daily model outputs, we developed a novel isotope-based approach to determine the onset date of the West African summer monsoon.
Sarah L. Jackson, Tessa R. Vance, Camilla Crockart, Andrew Moy, Christopher Plummer, and Nerilie J. Abram
Clim. Past, 19, 1653–1675, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-19-1653-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-19-1653-2023, 2023
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Ice core records are useful tools for reconstructing past climate. However, ice cores favour recording climate conditions at times when snowfall occurs. Large snowfall events in Antarctica are often associated with warmer-than-usual temperatures. We show that this results in a tendency for the Mount Brown South ice core record to preserve a temperature record biased to the climate conditions that exist during extreme events, rather than a temperature record that reflects the mean annual climate.
Briony Kate Chamberlayne, Jonathan James Tyler, Deborah Haynes, Yuexiao Shao, John Tibby, and Bronwyn May Gillanders
Clim. Past, 19, 1383–1396, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-19-1383-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-19-1383-2023, 2023
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We used geochemical signals in shells preserved in sediments to create a 1750-year record of hydrological change in the Coorong Lagoon of South Australia. The record is interpreted to reflect the balance of evaporation and precipitation and shows that it has always been a highly evaporated system. The record also shows similarities to other environmental reconstructions from the region. This knowledge can increase our understanding of the potential impacts of environmental change.
Alexandre Cauquoin, Ayako Abe-Ouchi, Takashi Obase, Wing-Le Chan, André Paul, and Martin Werner
Clim. Past, 19, 1275–1294, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-19-1275-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-19-1275-2023, 2023
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Stable water isotopes are tracers of climate processes occurring in the hydrological cycle. They are widely used to reconstruct the past variations of polar temperature before the instrumental era thanks to their measurements in ice cores. However, the relationship between measured isotopes and temperature has large uncertainties. In our study, we investigate how the sea surface conditions (temperature, sea ice, ocean circulation) impact this relationship for a cold to warm climate change.
Rachel M. Walter, Hussein R. Sayani, Thomas Felis, Kim M. Cobb, Nerilie J. Abram, Ariella K. Arzey, Alyssa R. Atwood, Logan D. Brenner, Émilie P. Dassié, Kristine L. DeLong, Bethany Ellis, Julien Emile-Geay, Matthew J. Fischer, Nathalie F. Goodkin, Jessica A. Hargreaves, K. Halimeda Kilbourne, Hedwig Krawczyk, Nicholas P. McKay, Andrea L. Moore, Sujata A. Murty, Maria Rosabelle Ong, Riovie D. Ramos, Emma V. Reed, Dhrubajyoti Samanta, Sara C. Sanchez, Jens Zinke, and the PAGES CoralHydro2k Project Members
Earth Syst. Sci. Data, 15, 2081–2116, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-15-2081-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-15-2081-2023, 2023
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Accurately quantifying how the global hydrological cycle will change in the future remains challenging due to the limited availability of historical climate data from the tropics. Here we present the CoralHydro2k database – a new compilation of peer-reviewed coral-based climate records from the last 2000 years. This paper details the records included in the database and where the database can be accessed and demonstrates how the database can investigate past tropical climate variability.
Lina Teckentrup, Martin G. De Kauwe, Gab Abramowitz, Andrew J. Pitman, Anna M. Ukkola, Sanaa Hobeichi, Bastien François, and Benjamin Smith
Earth Syst. Dynam., 14, 549–576, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-14-549-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-14-549-2023, 2023
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Studies analyzing the impact of the future climate on ecosystems employ climate projections simulated by global circulation models. These climate projections display biases that translate into significant uncertainty in projections of the future carbon cycle. Here, we test different methods to constrain the uncertainty in simulations of the carbon cycle over Australia. We find that all methods reduce the bias in the steady-state carbon variables but that temporal properties do not improve.
Timothy Pollard, Jon Woodhead, John Hellstrom, John Engel, Roger Powell, and Russell Drysdale
Geochronology, 5, 181–196, https://doi.org/10.5194/gchron-5-181-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/gchron-5-181-2023, 2023
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When using the uranium–lead (U–Pb) radiometric dating method on very young materials (e.g. Quaternary age zircon and carbonate minerals), it is important to accurately account for the production and decay of intermediate
daughterisotopes in the uranium-series decay chain. DQPB is open-source software that allows users to easily perform such calculations for a variety of sample types and produce publication-ready graphical outputs of the resulting age information.
Jiajia Wang, Hongxi Pang, Shuangye Wu, Spruce W. Schoenemann, Ryu Uemura, Alexey Ekaykin, Martin Werner, Alexandre Cauquoin, Sentia Goursaud Oger, Summer Rupper, and Shugui Hou
Earth Syst. Sci. Data Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-2022-384, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-2022-384, 2022
Revised manuscript not accepted
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Stable water isotopic observations in surface snow over Antarctica provide a basis for validating isotopic models and interpreting Antarctic ice core records. This study presents a new compilation of Antarctic surface snow isotopic dataset based on published and unpublished sources. The database has a wide range of potential applications in studying spatial distribution of water isotopes, model validation, and reconstruction and interpretation of Antarctic ice core records.
Hege Kilhavn, Isabelle Couchoud, Russell N. Drysdale, Carlos Rossi, John Hellstrom, Fabien Arnaud, and Henri Wong
Clim. Past, 18, 2321–2344, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-18-2321-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-18-2321-2022, 2022
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The analysis of stable carbon and oxygen isotopic ratios, trace element ratios, and growth rate from a Spanish speleothem provides quantitative information on past hydrological conditions during the early Holocene in south-western Europe. Our data show that the cave site experienced increased effective recharge during the 8.2 ka event. Additionally, the oxygen isotopes indicate a change in the isotopic composition of the moisture source, associated with the meltwater flux to the North Atlantic.
Antoine Grisart, Mathieu Casado, Vasileios Gkinis, Bo Vinther, Philippe Naveau, Mathieu Vrac, Thomas Laepple, Bénédicte Minster, Frederic Prié, Barbara Stenni, Elise Fourré, Hans Christian Steen-Larsen, Jean Jouzel, Martin Werner, Katy Pol, Valérie Masson-Delmotte, Maria Hoerhold, Trevor Popp, and Amaelle Landais
Clim. Past, 18, 2289–2301, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-18-2289-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-18-2289-2022, 2022
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This paper presents a compilation of high-resolution (11 cm) water isotopic records, including published and new measurements, for the last 800 000 years from the EPICA Dome C ice core, Antarctica. Using this new combined water isotopes (δ18O and δD) dataset, we study the variability and possible influence of diffusion at the multi-decadal to multi-centennial scale. We observe a stronger variability at the onset of the interglacial interval corresponding to a warm period.
Zuorui Liu, Amy Prendergast, Russell Drysdale, and Jan-Hendrik May
E&G Quaternary Sci. J., 71, 227–241, https://doi.org/10.5194/egqsj-71-227-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/egqsj-71-227-2022, 2022
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Past studies used two sampling strategies, the "bulk" and "sequential" drilling methods, for stable isotopic analysis of mammoth tooth enamel and paleoenvironmental reconstruction. This study applied both methods to the same enamel ridges of multiple mammoth teeth and compared their respective δ18O values. Offsets were detected between the bulk and average sequential δ18O values. The potential reasons for the offsets and their impacts on cross-method data comparison were discussed.
Janica C. Bühler, Josefine Axelsson, Franziska A. Lechleitner, Jens Fohlmeister, Allegra N. LeGrande, Madhavan Midhun, Jesper Sjolte, Martin Werner, Kei Yoshimura, and Kira Rehfeld
Clim. Past, 18, 1625–1654, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-18-1625-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-18-1625-2022, 2022
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We collected and standardized the output of five isotope-enabled simulations for the last millennium and assess differences and similarities to records from a global speleothem database. Modeled isotope variations mostly arise from temperature differences. While lower-resolution speleothems do not capture extreme changes to the extent of models, they show higher variability on multi-decadal timescales. As no model excels in all comparisons, we advise a multi-model approach where possible.
Nicky M. Wright, Claire E. Krause, Steven J. Phipps, Ghyslaine Boschat, and Nerilie J. Abram
Clim. Past, 18, 1509–1528, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-18-1509-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-18-1509-2022, 2022
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The Southern Annular Mode (SAM) is a major mode of climate variability. Proxy-based SAM reconstructions show changes that last millennium climate simulations do not reproduce. We test the SAM's sensitivity to solar forcing using simulations with a range of solar values and transient last millennium simulations with large-amplitude solar variations. We find that solar forcing can alter the SAM and that strong solar forcing transient simulations better match proxy-based reconstructions.
Xiaoxu Shi, Martin Werner, Carolin Krug, Chris M. Brierley, Anni Zhao, Endurance Igbinosa, Pascale Braconnot, Esther Brady, Jian Cao, Roberta D'Agostino, Johann Jungclaus, Xingxing Liu, Bette Otto-Bliesner, Dmitry Sidorenko, Robert Tomas, Evgeny M. Volodin, Hu Yang, Qiong Zhang, Weipeng Zheng, and Gerrit Lohmann
Clim. Past, 18, 1047–1070, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-18-1047-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-18-1047-2022, 2022
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Since the orbital parameters of the past are different from today, applying the modern calendar to the past climate can lead to an artificial bias in seasonal cycles. With the use of multiple model outputs, we found that such a bias is non-ignorable and should be corrected to ensure an accurate comparison between modeled results and observational records, as well as between simulated past and modern climates, especially for the Last Interglacial.
Jon Cranko Page, Martin G. De Kauwe, Gab Abramowitz, Jamie Cleverly, Nina Hinko-Najera, Mark J. Hovenden, Yao Liu, Andy J. Pitman, and Kiona Ogle
Biogeosciences, 19, 1913–1932, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-19-1913-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-19-1913-2022, 2022
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Although vegetation responds to climate at a wide range of timescales, models of the land carbon sink often ignore responses that do not occur instantly. In this study, we explore the timescales at which Australian ecosystems respond to climate. We identified that carbon and water fluxes can be modelled more accurately if we include environmental drivers from up to a year in the past. The importance of antecedent conditions is related to ecosystem aridity but is also influenced by other factors.
Tobias Erhardt, Matthias Bigler, Urs Federer, Gideon Gfeller, Daiana Leuenberger, Olivia Stowasser, Regine Röthlisberger, Simon Schüpbach, Urs Ruth, Birthe Twarloh, Anna Wegner, Kumiko Goto-Azuma, Takayuki Kuramoto, Helle A. Kjær, Paul T. Vallelonga, Marie-Louise Siggaard-Andersen, Margareta E. Hansson, Ailsa K. Benton, Louise G. Fleet, Rob Mulvaney, Elizabeth R. Thomas, Nerilie Abram, Thomas F. Stocker, and Hubertus Fischer
Earth Syst. Sci. Data, 14, 1215–1231, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-14-1215-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-14-1215-2022, 2022
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The datasets presented alongside this manuscript contain high-resolution concentration measurements of chemical impurities in deep ice cores, NGRIP and NEEM, from the Greenland ice sheet. The impurities originate from the deposition of aerosols to the surface of the ice sheet and are influenced by source, transport and deposition processes. Together, these records contain detailed, multi-parameter records of past climate variability over the last glacial period.
Anna M. Ukkola, Gab Abramowitz, and Martin G. De Kauwe
Earth Syst. Sci. Data, 14, 449–461, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-14-449-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-14-449-2022, 2022
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Flux towers provide measurements of water, energy, and carbon fluxes. Flux tower data are invaluable in improving and evaluating land models but are not suited to modelling applications as published. Here we present flux tower data tailored for land modelling, encompassing 170 sites globally. Our dataset resolves several key limitations hindering the use of flux tower data in land modelling, including incomplete forcing variable, data format, and low data quality.
Stephan Krätschmer, Michèlle van der Does, Frank Lamy, Gerrit Lohmann, Christoph Völker, and Martin Werner
Clim. Past, 18, 67–87, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-18-67-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-18-67-2022, 2022
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We use an atmospheric model coupled to an aerosol model to investigate the global mineral dust cycle with a focus on the Southern Hemisphere for warmer and colder climate states and compare our results to observational data. Our findings suggest that Australia is the predominant source of dust deposited over Antarctica during the last glacial maximum. In addition, we find that the southward transport of dust from all sources to Antarctica happens at lower altitudes in colder climates.
Fabienne Dahinden, Franziska Aemisegger, Heini Wernli, Matthias Schneider, Christopher J. Diekmann, Benjamin Ertl, Peter Knippertz, Martin Werner, and Stephan Pfahl
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 21, 16319–16347, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-21-16319-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-21-16319-2021, 2021
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We use high-resolution numerical isotope modelling and Lagrangian backward trajectories to identify moisture transport pathways and governing physical and dynamical processes that affect the free-tropospheric humidity and isotopic variability over the eastern subtropical North Atlantic. Furthermore, we conduct a thorough isotope modelling validation with aircraft and remote-sensing observations of water vapour isotopes.
Saeid Bagheri Dastgerdi, Melanie Behrens, Jean-Louis Bonne, Maria Hörhold, Gerrit Lohmann, Elisabeth Schlosser, and Martin Werner
The Cryosphere, 15, 4745–4767, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-15-4745-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-15-4745-2021, 2021
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In this study, for the first time, water vapour isotope measurements in Antarctica for all seasons of a year are performed. Local temperature is identified as the main driver of δ18O and δD variability. A similar slope of the temperature–δ18O relationship in vapour and surface snow points to the water vapour isotope content as a potential key driver. This dataset can be used as a new dataset to evaluate the capability of isotope-enhanced climate models.
Mengyuan Mu, Martin G. De Kauwe, Anna M. Ukkola, Andy J. Pitman, Weidong Guo, Sanaa Hobeichi, and Peter R. Briggs
Earth Syst. Dynam., 12, 919–938, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-12-919-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-12-919-2021, 2021
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Groundwater can buffer the impacts of drought and heatwaves on ecosystems, which is often neglected in model studies. Using a land surface model with groundwater, we explained how groundwater sustains transpiration and eases heat pressure on plants in heatwaves during multi-year droughts. Our results showed the groundwater’s influences diminish as drought extends and are regulated by plant physiology. We suggest neglecting groundwater in models may overstate projected future heatwave intensity.
Camilla K. Crockart, Tessa R. Vance, Alexander D. Fraser, Nerilie J. Abram, Alison S. Criscitiello, Mark A. J. Curran, Vincent Favier, Ailie J. E. Gallant, Christoph Kittel, Helle A. Kjær, Andrew R. Klekociuk, Lenneke M. Jong, Andrew D. Moy, Christopher T. Plummer, Paul T. Vallelonga, Jonathan Wille, and Lingwei Zhang
Clim. Past, 17, 1795–1818, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-17-1795-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-17-1795-2021, 2021
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We present preliminary analyses of the annual sea salt concentrations and snowfall accumulation in a new East Antarctic ice core, Mount Brown South. We compare this record with an updated Law Dome (Dome Summit South site) ice core record over the period 1975–2016. The Mount Brown South record preserves a stronger and inverse signal for the El Niño–Southern Oscillation (in austral winter and spring) compared to the Law Dome record (in summer).
Marcus Breil, Emanuel Christner, Alexandre Cauquoin, Martin Werner, Melanie Karremann, and Gerd Schädler
Clim. Past, 17, 1685–1699, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-17-1685-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-17-1685-2021, 2021
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For the first time an isotope-enabled regional climate simulation for Greenland is performed for the mid-Holocene. Simulation results are compared with observed isotope ratios in ice cores. Compared to global climate simulations, a regional downscaling improves the agreement with measured isotope concentrations. Thus, an isotope-enabled regional climate simulation constitutes a useful supplement to reconstruct regional paleo-climate conditions during the mid-Holocene in Greenland.
Thomas Münch, Martin Werner, and Thomas Laepple
Clim. Past, 17, 1587–1605, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-17-1587-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-17-1587-2021, 2021
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We analyse Holocene climate model simulation data to find the locations of Antarctic ice cores which are best suited to reconstruct local- to regional-scale temperatures. We find that the spatial decorrelation scales of the temperature variations and of the noise from precipitation intermittency set an effective sampling length scale. Following this, a single core should be located at the
target site for the temperature reconstruction, and a second one optimally lies more than 500 km away.
Sanaa Hobeichi, Gab Abramowitz, and Jason P. Evans
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 25, 3855–3874, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-25-3855-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-25-3855-2021, 2021
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Evapotranspiration (ET) links the water, energy and carbon cycle on land. Reliable ET estimates are key to understand droughts and flooding. We develop a new ET dataset, DOLCE V3, by merging multiple global ET datasets, and we show that it matches ET observations better and hence is more reliable than its parent datasets. Next, we use DOLCE V3 to examine recent changes in ET and find that ET has increased over most of the land, decreased in some regions, and has not changed in some other regions
Sarah E. Parker, Sandy P. Harrison, Laia Comas-Bru, Nikita Kaushal, Allegra N. LeGrande, and Martin Werner
Clim. Past, 17, 1119–1138, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-17-1119-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-17-1119-2021, 2021
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Regional trends in the oxygen isotope (δ18O) composition of stalagmites reflect several climate processes. We compare stalagmite δ18O records from monsoon regions and model simulations to identify the causes of δ18O variability over the last 12 000 years, and between glacial and interglacial states. Precipitation changes explain the glacial–interglacial δ18O changes in all monsoon regions; Holocene trends are due to a combination of precipitation, atmospheric circulation and temperature changes.
Iris Thurnherr, Katharina Hartmuth, Lukas Jansing, Josué Gehring, Maxi Boettcher, Irina Gorodetskaya, Martin Werner, Heini Wernli, and Franziska Aemisegger
Weather Clim. Dynam., 2, 331–357, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-2-331-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-2-331-2021, 2021
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Extratropical cyclones are important for the transport of moisture from low to high latitudes. In this study, we investigate how the isotopic composition of water vapour is affected by horizontal temperature advection associated with extratropical cyclones using measurements and modelling. It is shown that air–sea moisture fluxes induced by this horizontal temperature advection lead to the strong variability observed in the isotopic composition of water vapour in the marine boundary layer.
André Paul, Stefan Mulitza, Rüdiger Stein, and Martin Werner
Clim. Past, 17, 805–824, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-17-805-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-17-805-2021, 2021
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Maps and fields of near-sea-surface temperature differences between the past and present can be used to visualize and quantify climate changes and perform simulations with climate models. We used a statistical method to map sparse and scattered data for the Last Glacial Maximum time period (23 000 to 19 000 years before present) to a regular grid. The estimated global and tropical cooling would imply an equilibrium climate sensitivity in the lower to middle part of the currently accepted range.
Cited articles
Abramowitz, G., Ukkola, A., Hobeichi, S., Cranko Page, J., Lipson, M., De Kauwe, M. G., Green, S., Brenner, C., Frame, J., Nearing, G., Clark, M., Best, M., Anthoni, P., Arduini, G., Boussetta, S., Caldararu, S., Cho, K., Cuntz, M., Fairbairn, D., Ferguson, C. R., Kim, H., Kim, Y., Knauer, J., Lawrence, D., Luo, X., Malyshev, S., Nitta, T., Ogee, J., Oleson, K., Ottlé, C., Peylin, P., de Rosnay, P., Rumbold, H., Su, B., Vuichard, N., Walker, A. P., Wang-Faivre, X., Wang, Y., and Zeng, Y.: On the predictability of turbulent fluxes from land: PLUMBER2 MIP experimental description and preliminary results, Biogeosciences, 21, 5517–5538, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-21-5517-2024, 2024.
Acworth, I., Bernardi, T., Andersen, M. S., and Rau, G. C.: Hydrological complexity and climate implications in Australia's arid zone: A decade of high-resolution rainfall observations, J. Hydrol. Reg. Stud., 51, 101643, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ejrh.2023.101643, 2024.
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Executive editor
This manuscript is an interesting addition to the world of "isoscapes". The authors additionally provide a web-app for downloading the data and obtaining maps.
This manuscript is an interesting addition to the world of "isoscapes". The authors additionally...
Short summary
We used a random forest approach to produce estimates of monthly precipitation stable isotope variability from 1962–2023, at high resolution across the entire Australian continent. Comprehensive skill and sensitivity testing shows that our random forest models skilfully predict precipitation isotope values in places and times that observations are not available. We make all outputs freely available, facilitating use in fields from ecology and hydrology to archaeology and forensic science.
We used a random forest approach to produce estimates of monthly precipitation stable isotope...
