Hydrology and Earth System Sciences
Hydrology and Earth System Sciences
HESS
Articles | Volume 30, issue 8
Articles | Volume 30, issue 8
https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-30-2337-2026
© Author(s) 2026. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-30-2337-2026
© Author(s) 2026. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
Articles | Volume 30, issue 8
Technical note
 | Highlight paper
 | 
23 Apr 2026
Technical note | Highlight paper |  | 23 Apr 2026

Technical note: High Nash–Sutcliffe Efficiencies conceal poor simulations of interannual variance in seasonal regimes

Sacha W. Ruzzante, Wouter J. M. Knoben, Thorsten Wagener, Tom Gleeson, and Markus Schnorbus

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Editorial statement
Are the current hydrologic models able to simulate non-stationary responses to climate change in highly seasonal climates, which include tropical, alpine, and polar regions that are some of the most vulnerable regarding climate change. This paper addresses this research question in a compelling, novel and comprehensive way, with a focus on the suitability of our performance metrics for assessing the reproduction of interannual variability.
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Short summary
Common metrics used to evaluate hydrologic models make it relatively easy to achieve high performance scores in highly seasonal catchments. However, we analysed 18 hydrologic models and found that almost all were worse at simulating interannual variability and change in seasonal streamflow regimes. This suggests that climate change impacts on streamflow may not be accurately predicted in highly seasonal tropical, alpine, and polar regions, which are highly vulnerable to climate change.
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