Articles | Volume 30, issue 8
https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-30-2337-2026
https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-30-2337-2026
Technical note
 | Highlight paper
 | 
23 Apr 2026
Technical note | Highlight paper |  | 23 Apr 2026

Technical note: High Nash–Sutcliffe Efficiencies conceal poor simulations of interannual variance in seasonal regimes

Sacha W. Ruzzante, Wouter J. M. Knoben, Thorsten Wagener, Tom Gleeson, and Markus Schnorbus

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Interactive discussion

Status: closed

Comment types: AC – author | RC – referee | CC – community | EC – editor | CEC – chief editor | : Report abuse
  • RC1: 'Comment on egusphere-2025-3851', Anonymous Referee #1, 26 Nov 2025
    • AC2: 'Reply on RC1', Sacha Ruzzante, 19 Dec 2025
  • RC2: 'Comment on egusphere-2025-3851', Anonymous Referee #2, 02 Dec 2025
    • AC1: 'Reply on RC2', Sacha Ruzzante, 19 Dec 2025

Peer review completion

AR – Author's response | RR – Referee report | ED – Editor decision | EF – Editorial file upload
ED: Publish subject to revisions (further review by editor and referees) (13 Jan 2026) by Elena Toth
AR by Sacha Ruzzante on behalf of the Authors (20 Feb 2026)  Author's response   Author's tracked changes   Manuscript 
ED: Referee Nomination & Report Request started (07 Mar 2026) by Elena Toth
RR by Anonymous Referee #2 (10 Mar 2026)
RR by Anonymous Referee #1 (20 Mar 2026)
ED: Publish subject to technical corrections (21 Mar 2026) by Elena Toth
AR by Sacha Ruzzante on behalf of the Authors (09 Apr 2026)  Author's response   Manuscript 
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Editorial statement
Are the current hydrologic models able to simulate non-stationary responses to climate change in highly seasonal climates, which include tropical, alpine, and polar regions that are some of the most vulnerable regarding climate change. This paper addresses this research question in a compelling, novel and comprehensive way, with a focus on the suitability of our performance metrics for assessing the reproduction of interannual variability.
Short summary
Common metrics used to evaluate hydrologic models make it relatively easy to achieve high performance scores in highly seasonal catchments. However, we analysed 18 hydrologic models and found that almost all were worse at simulating interannual variability and change in seasonal streamflow regimes. This suggests that climate change impacts on streamflow may not be accurately predicted in highly seasonal tropical, alpine, and polar regions, which are highly vulnerable to climate change.
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