Articles | Volume 30, issue 8
https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-30-2337-2026
https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-30-2337-2026
Technical note
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23 Apr 2026
Technical note | Highlight paper |  | 23 Apr 2026

Technical note: High Nash–Sutcliffe Efficiencies conceal poor simulations of interannual variance in seasonal regimes

Sacha W. Ruzzante, Wouter J. M. Knoben, Thorsten Wagener, Tom Gleeson, and Markus Schnorbus

Data sets

CAMELS-AUS v2: updated hydrometeorological timeseries and landscape attributes for an enlarged set of catchments in Australia (2.03) K. Fowler et al. https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.14289037

Addor, N., Fan, F. M., Fleischmann, A. S., Paiva, R. C. D., and Siqueira, V. A.: CAMELS-BR: Hydrometeorological time series and landscape attributes for 897 catchments in Brazil - link to files (1.2) V. B. P. Chagas et al. https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.15025488

LamaH-CE: LArge-SaMple DAta for Hydrology and Environmental Sciences for Central Europe – files (1.0) C. Klingler et al. https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.5153305

The CAMELS-CL dataset - links to files, data set C. Alvarez-Garreton et al. https://doi.org/10.1594/PANGAEA.894885

CAMELS-DK: Hydrometeorological Time Series and Landscape Attributes for 3330 Catchments in Denmark (6.0) J. Koch et al. https://doi.org/10.22008/FK2/AZXSYP

CAMELS-FR dataset (3.2) O. Delaigue et al. https://doi.org/10.57745/WH7FJR

CAMELS-DE: hydrometeorological time series and attributes for 1582 catchments in Germany (1.0.0) A. Dolich et al. https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.13837553

Catchment attributes and hydro-meteorological timeseries for 671 catchments across Great Britain (CAMELS-GB) G. Coxon et al. https://doi.org/10.5285/8344e4f3-d2ea-44f5-8afa-86d2987543a9

LArge-SaMple DAta for Hydrology and Environmental Sciences for Iceland H. Helgason and B Nijssen https://doi.org/10.4211/HS.86117A5F36CC4B7C90A5D54E18161C91

CAMELS-IND: hydrometeorological time series and catchment attributes for 472 catchments in Peninsular India (2.2) N. K. Mangukiya et al. https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.14999580

Highly Resolved Hydro-Meteorological and Atmospheric Data for Physiographically Characterized Catchments around Luxembourg: Vol. preprint (v1.1) J. Nijzink et al. https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.14910359

CAMELS: Catchment Attributes and MEteorology for Large-sample Studies (1.2) A. J. Newman et al. https://doi.org/10.5065/D6MW2F4D

HYSETS - A 14425 watershed Hydrometeorological Sandbox over North America R. Arsenault et al. https://doi.org/10.17605/OSF.IO/RPC3W

Catchment attributes and hydro-meteorological time series for large-sample studies across hydrologic Switzerland (CAMELS-CH) (0.9) M. Höge et al. https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.15025258

Caravan extension Israel - Israel dataset for large-sample hydrology (v4) M. Efrat https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.15181680

Caravan extension Germany - German dataset for large-sample hydrology (v1.1.1) A. Dolich et al. https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.14755229

CAMELS-ES: Catchment Attributes and Meteorology for Large-Sample Studies - Spain (1.0.2) J. Casado Rodríguez https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.8428374

Global prediction of extreme floods in ungauged watersheds (v3) G. Nearing https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.10397664

Global Daily Discharge Estimation Based on Grid Long Short-Term Memory (LSTM) Model and River Routing Y. Yang and M. Pan https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.15644728

LSTM regionalization datasets and codes R. Arsenault et al. https://doi.org/10.17605/OSF.IO/3S2PQ

Never train an LSTM on a single basin F. Kratzert https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.11247607

Streamflow datasets from the high-resolution, multiscale, differentiable HBV hydrologic models (v6) Y. Song et al. https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.15784945

Application of the National Hydrologic Model Infrastructure with the Precipitation-Runoff Modeling System (NHM-PRMS),1980-2016, Daymet Version 3 calibration L. E. Hay and J. H. LaFontaine https://doi.org/10.5066/P9PGZE0S

CAMELS benchmark models F. Kratzert https://doi.org/10.4211/hs.474ecc37e7db45baa425cdb4fc1b61e1

Model code and software

sruzzante/NSE-and-Variance-Components: v1.1 S. Ruzzante https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.18705708

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Editorial statement
Are the current hydrologic models able to simulate non-stationary responses to climate change in highly seasonal climates, which include tropical, alpine, and polar regions that are some of the most vulnerable regarding climate change. This paper addresses this research question in a compelling, novel and comprehensive way, with a focus on the suitability of our performance metrics for assessing the reproduction of interannual variability.
Short summary
Common metrics used to evaluate hydrologic models make it relatively easy to achieve high performance scores in highly seasonal catchments. However, we analysed 18 hydrologic models and found that almost all were worse at simulating interannual variability and change in seasonal streamflow regimes. This suggests that climate change impacts on streamflow may not be accurately predicted in highly seasonal tropical, alpine, and polar regions, which are highly vulnerable to climate change.
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