Articles | Volume 29, issue 4
https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-29-969-2025
© Author(s) 2025. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
Special issue:
https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-29-969-2025
© Author(s) 2025. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
A mathematical model to improve water storage of glacial lake prediction towards addressing glacial lake outburst floods
Miaomiao Qi
Yunnan Key Laboratory of International Rivers and Transboundary Eco-Security, Yunnan University, Kunming 650091, China
Institute of International Rivers and Eco-Security, Yunnan University, Kunming 650091, China
Yunnan International Joint Laboratory of China–Laos–Bangladesh–Myanmar Natural Resources Remote Sensing Monitoring, Kunming 650091, China
School of Earth Sciences, Yunnan University, Kunming 650500, China
Yunnan Key Laboratory of International Rivers and Transboundary Eco-Security, Yunnan University, Kunming 650091, China
Institute of International Rivers and Eco-Security, Yunnan University, Kunming 650091, China
Yunnan International Joint Laboratory of China–Laos–Bangladesh–Myanmar Natural Resources Remote Sensing Monitoring, Kunming 650091, China
Zhifang Zhao
CORRESPONDING AUTHOR
Yunnan International Joint Laboratory of China–Laos–Bangladesh–Myanmar Natural Resources Remote Sensing Monitoring, Kunming 650091, China
School of Earth Sciences, Yunnan University, Kunming 650500, China
Yongpeng Gao
Faculty of Geography, Yunnan Normal University, Kunming 650500, China
Key Laboratory of Resources and Environmental Remote Sensing for Universities in Yunnan, Kunming 650500, China
Fuming Xie
Yunnan Key Laboratory of International Rivers and Transboundary Eco-Security, Yunnan University, Kunming 650091, China
Institute of International Rivers and Eco-Security, Yunnan University, Kunming 650091, China
Georg Veh
Institute of Environmental Science and Geography, University of Potsdam, Potsdam, Germany
Letian Xiao
Yunnan Key Laboratory of International Rivers and Transboundary Eco-Security, Yunnan University, Kunming 650091, China
Institute of International Rivers and Eco-Security, Yunnan University, Kunming 650091, China
Jinlong Jing
School of Mathematics and Statistics, Yunnan University, 650091 Kunming, China
Yunnan Key Laboratory of International Rivers and Transboundary Eco-Security, Yunnan University, Kunming 650091, China
Institute of International Rivers and Eco-Security, Yunnan University, Kunming 650091, China
Kunpeng Wu
Yunnan Key Laboratory of International Rivers and Transboundary Eco-Security, Yunnan University, Kunming 650091, China
Institute of International Rivers and Eco-Security, Yunnan University, Kunming 650091, China
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Glacial lake outburst floods (GLOFs) in the greater Himalayan region threaten local communities and infrastructure. We assess this hazard objectively using fully data-driven models. We find that lake and catchment area, as well as regional glacier-mass balance, credibly raised the susceptibility of a glacial lake in our study area to produce a sudden outburst. However, our models hardly support the widely held notion that rapid lake growth increases GLOF susceptibility.
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Glacier centerlines are crucial input for many glaciological applications. We propose a new algorithm to derive glacier centerlines and implement the corresponding program in Python language. Application of this method to 48 571 glaciers in the second Chinese glacier inventory automatically yielded the corresponding glacier centerlines with an average computing time of 20.96 s, a success rate of 100 % and a comprehensive accuracy of 94.34 %.
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The theoretical and methodological bases for all processing steps including glacial lake definition and classification and lake boundary delineation are discussed based on satellite remote sensing data and GIS techniques. The relative area errors of each lake in 2018 varied 1 %–79 % with average relative area errors of ±13.2 %. In high-mountain Asia, 30 121 glacial lakes with a total area of 2080.12 ± 2.28 km2 were catalogued in 2018 with a 15.2 % average rate of increase in area in 1990–2018.
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Short summary
Here we propose a new mathematically robust and cost-effective model to improve glacial lake water storage estimation. We have also provided a dataset of measured water storage in glacial lakes through field depth measurements. Our model incorporates an automated calculation process and outperforms previous ones, achieving an average relative error of only 14 %. This research offers a valuable tool for researchers seeking to improve the risk assessment of glacial lake outburst floods.
Here we propose a new mathematically robust and cost-effective model to improve glacial lake...