Articles | Volume 29, issue 21
https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-29-5871-2025
© Author(s) 2025. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-29-5871-2025
© Author(s) 2025. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
Unveiling the limits of deep learning models in hydrological extrapolation tasks
Institute of Water and Environment, Karlsruhe Institute of Technology (KIT), Karlsruhe, Germany
Daniel Klotz
Interdisciplinary Transformation University Austria, Linz, Austria
Google Research, Vienna, Austria
Eduardo Acuña Espinoza
Institute of Water and Environment, Karlsruhe Institute of Technology (KIT), Karlsruhe, Germany
Andras Bardossy
Institut für Wasser- und Umweltsystemmodellierung, Universität Stuttgart, Stuttgart, Germany
Ralf Loritz
Institute of Water and Environment, Karlsruhe Institute of Technology (KIT), Karlsruhe, Germany
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- 3D finite-volume modeling of saltwater intrusion dynamics and mitigation under drought conditions: A case study of the Minjiang river estuary, China Y. Huang et al. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ecss.2026.110025
- Enhancing Daily Runoff Prediction Accuracy with the Coupled KAN-LSTM Model and a Dynamic Postprocessing Module C. Mo et al. https://doi.org/10.1007/s11269-026-04787-w
- Hybrid singular spectrum analysis and LSTM modeling for daily precipitation forecasting Z. Lu et al. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.geog.2025.12.007
- A GNN routing module is all you need for LSTM Rainfall–Runoff models H. Mosaffa et al. https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-30-2079-2026
- Can discharge be used to inversely correct precipitation? A. Manoj J et al. https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-29-6115-2025
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- Reconstruction of Daily Runoff Series in Data-Scarce Areas Based on Physically Enhanced Seq-to-Seq-Attention-LSTM Model Z. Yin et al. https://doi.org/10.3390/w17233396
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- Phased dynamic analysis and prediction of rice Chilo suppressalis integrating remote sensing physiological indices and environmental factors Y. Wu et al. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jia.2026.01.043
- The evaluation, attribution and ecological implications of downstream flow regime changes in a large transboundary basin in Central Asia L. Xu et al. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ejrh.2026.103665
- Is smart sampling worth it? Impact of training data selection on the performance of LSTMs in streamflow prediction B. Heudorfer & R. Loritz https://doi.org/10.2166/nh.2026.119
- A classified artificial intelligence model based on triple-attention mechanism and metaheuristic algorithm for monthly runoff prediction W. Liu et al. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ejrh.2026.103441
- Enhancing the performance of machine learning models for simulation of river flows in data-scarce catchments using bootstrapping and physics-based data augmentation J. Murungi et al. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.engappai.2026.115603
Saved (final revised paper)
Latest update: 07 Jul 2026
Short summary
This study evaluates the extrapolation performance of long short-term memory (LSTM) networks in rainfall–runoff modeling, specifically under extreme precipitation conditions. The findings reveal that the LSTM cannot predict discharge values beyond a theoretical limit and that this limit is well below the extremity of its training data. This behavior results from the LSTM's gating structures rather than saturation of the cell states alone.
This study evaluates the extrapolation performance of long short-term memory (LSTM) networks in...