Articles | Volume 29, issue 21
https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-29-5871-2025
https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-29-5871-2025
Research article
 | 
03 Nov 2025
Research article |  | 03 Nov 2025

Unveiling the limits of deep learning models in hydrological extrapolation tasks

Sanika Baste, Daniel Klotz, Eduardo Acuña Espinoza, Andras Bardossy, and Ralf Loritz

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Interactive discussion

Status: closed

Comment types: AC – author | RC – referee | CC – community | EC – editor | CEC – chief editor | : Report abuse
  • CC1: 'Comment on egusphere-2025-425', Baoying Shan, 17 Feb 2025
    • AC1: 'Reply on CC1', Sanika Baste, 18 Feb 2025
  • RC1: 'Comment on egusphere-2025-425', Basil Kraft, 14 Mar 2025
    • AC2: 'Reply on RC1', Sanika Baste, 10 Apr 2025
  • RC2: 'Comment on egusphere-2025-425', Anonymous Referee #2, 14 Apr 2025
    • AC3: 'Reply on RC2', Sanika Baste, 25 Apr 2025

Peer review completion

AR: Author's response | RR: Referee report | ED: Editor decision | EF: Editorial file upload
ED: Reconsider after major revisions (further review by editor and referees) (07 May 2025) by Daniel Viviroli
AR by Sanika Baste on behalf of the Authors (01 Jul 2025)  Author's response   Author's tracked changes   Manuscript 
ED: Referee Nomination & Report Request started (01 Jul 2025) by Daniel Viviroli
RR by Basil Kraft (28 Jul 2025)
RR by Anonymous Referee #2 (18 Aug 2025)
ED: Publish subject to technical corrections (19 Aug 2025) by Daniel Viviroli
AR by Sanika Baste on behalf of the Authors (26 Aug 2025)  Manuscript 
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Short summary
This study evaluates the extrapolation performance of long short-term memory (LSTM) networks in rainfall–runoff modeling, specifically under extreme precipitation conditions. The findings reveal that the LSTM cannot predict discharge values beyond a theoretical limit and that this limit is well below the extremity of its training data. This behavior results from the LSTM's gating structures rather than saturation of the cell states alone.
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