Articles | Volume 29, issue 21
https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-29-5851-2025
© Author(s) 2025. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-29-5851-2025
© Author(s) 2025. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
Research article
| 
03 Nov 2025
Research article |
| 03 Nov 2025
| 03 Nov 2025
The impact of climate change on dam overtopping floods in Australia
Department of Infrastructure Engineering, The University of Melbourne, Melbourne, 3010, Australia
Declan O'Shea
Department of Infrastructure Engineering, The University of Melbourne, Melbourne, 3010, Australia
HARC-Hydrology and Risk Consulting, Melbourne, 3130, Australia
Conrad Wasko
School of Civil Engineering, The University of Sydney, Sydney, 2050, Australia
Rory Nathan
Department of Infrastructure Engineering, The University of Melbourne, Melbourne, 3010, Australia
Ashish Sharma
School of Civil and Environmental Engineering, The University of New South Wales, Sydney, 2052, Australia
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Short summary
There is unequivocal evidence that climate change will impact the risk profile of dams, which are critical for water supply and flood mitigation. We project changes in the overtopping risk for 18 large dams in Australia in response to global warming. We consider the impacts of climate change on rainfall depth, rainfall temporal pattern, and rainfall losses. Under 4 °C of global warming, the risk of overtopping floods was 2.4–17 times that of historical conditions.
There is unequivocal evidence that climate change will impact the risk profile of dams, which...
