Articles | Volume 29, issue 20
https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-29-5347-2025
© Author(s) 2025. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-29-5347-2025
© Author(s) 2025. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
Research article
| 
20 Oct 2025
Research article |
| 20 Oct 2025
| 20 Oct 2025
Hyperdroughts in central Chile: drivers, impacts, and projections
René Garreaud
CORRESPONDING AUTHOR
Center for Climate and Resilience Research (CR2), Santiago, Chile
Department of Geophysics, Universidad de Chile, Santiago, Chile
Juan Pablo Boisier
Center for Climate and Resilience Research (CR2), Santiago, Chile
Department of Geophysics, Universidad de Chile, Santiago, Chile
Camila Alvarez-Garreton
Center for Climate and Resilience Research (CR2), Santiago, Chile
Duncan A. Christie
Center for Climate and Resilience Research (CR2), Santiago, Chile
Laboratorio de Dendrocronología y Cambio Global. Instituto de Conservación Biodiversidad y Territorio, Universidad Austral de Chile, Valdivia, Chile
Tomás Carrasco-Escaff
Center for Climate and Resilience Research (CR2), Santiago, Chile
Iván Vergara
Center for Climate and Resilience Research (CR2), Santiago, Chile
IPATEC, CONICET-UNCo, Bariloche, Argentina
Roberto O. Chávez
Instituto de Geografía, Pontificia Universidad Católica de Valparaíso, Valparaíso, Chile
Instituto de Ecología y Biodiversidad, Santiago, Chile
Paulina Aldunce
Center for Climate and Resilience Research (CR2), Santiago, Chile
Departamento de Ciencias Ambientales y Recursos Naturales Renovables, Universidad de Chile, Santiago, Chile
Pablo Camus
Instituto de Historia, Pontificia Universidad Católica de Chile, Santiago, Chile
Manuel Suazo-Álvarez
Laboratorio de Dendrocronología y Cambio Global. Instituto de Conservación Biodiversidad y Territorio, Universidad Austral de Chile, Valdivia, Chile
Mariano Masiokas
Instituto Argentino de Nivología, Glaciología y Ciencias Ambientales, IANIGLA-CONICET, Mendoza, Argentina
Gabriel Castro
Instituto de Geografía, Pontificia Universidad Católica de Valparaíso, Valparaíso, Chile
Ariel Muñoz
Center for Climate and Resilience Research (CR2), Santiago, Chile
Instituto de Geografía, Pontificia Universidad Católica de Valparaíso, Valparaíso, Chile
Centro de Acción Climática, Pontificia Universidad Católica de Valparaíso, Valparaíso, Chile
Mauricio Zambrano-Bigiarini
Center for Climate and Resilience Research (CR2), Santiago, Chile
Department of Civil Engineering, Universidad de La Frontera, Temuco, Chile
Rodrigo Fuster
Departamento de Ciencias Ambientales y Recursos Naturales Renovables, Universidad de Chile, Santiago, Chile
Lintsiee Godoy
Departamento de Ciencias Ambientales y Recursos Naturales Renovables, Universidad de Chile, Santiago, Chile
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Tomás Carrasco-Escaff, Maisa Rojas, René Darío Garreaud, Deniz Bozkurt, and Marius Schaefer
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Oscar M. Baez-Villanueva, Mauricio Zambrano-Bigiarini, Pablo A. Mendoza, Ian McNamara, Hylke E. Beck, Joschka Thurner, Alexandra Nauditt, Lars Ribbe, and Nguyen Xuan Thinh
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Camila Alvarez-Garreton, Juan Pablo Boisier, René Garreaud, Jan Seibert, and Marc Vis
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 25, 429–446, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-25-429-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-25-429-2021, 2021
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R. O. Chávez, J. A. Lastra, D. Valencia, and I. Díaz-Hormazábal
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Cited articles
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Aldunce, P., and González, M.: Desastres asociados al clima en la agricultura y medio rural en Chile, Departamento de Ciencias Ambientales y Recursos Naturales Renovables, Facultad de Ciencias Agronómicas, Universidad de Chile; Fundación para la Innovación Agraria, FIA, Ministerio de Agricultura, ISBN 978-956-19-0611-2, 2009.
Alvarez-Garreton, C., Boisier, J. P., Garreaud, R., Seibert, J., and Vis, M.: Progressive water deficits during multiyear droughts in basins with long hydrological memory in Chile, Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 25, 429–446, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-25-429-2021, 2021.
Alvarez-Garreton, C., Boisier, J. P., Garreaud, R., González, J., Rondanelli, R., Gayó, E., and Zambrano-Bigiarini, M.: HESS Opinions: The unsustainable use of groundwater conceals a “Day Zero”, Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 28, 1605–1616, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-1605-2024, 2024.
Arroyo, M. T. K., Robles, V.,Tamburrino, I.,Martínez-Harms, J., Garreaud, R. D., Jara-Arancio, P., Pliscoff, P.,Copier, A., Arenas, J., Keymer, J., and Castro, K.: Extreme Drought Affects Visitation and Seed Set in a Plant Species in the Central Chilean Andes Heavily Dependent on Hummingbird Pollination, Plants, 9, 1553, https://doi.org/10.3390/plants9111553, 2020.
Ayala, Á., Farías-Barahona, D., Huss, M., Pellicciotti, F., McPhee, J., and Farinotti, D.: Glacier runoff variations since 1955 in the Maipo River basin, in the semiarid Andes of central Chile, The Cryosphere, 14, 2005–2027, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-14-2005-2020, 2020.
Barría, P., Chadwick, C., Ocampo-Melgar, A., Galleguillos, M., Garreaud, R., Díaz-Vasconcellos, R., Poblete, D., Rubio-Álvarez, E., Poblete-Caballero, D.: : Water management or megadrought: what caused the Chilean Aculeo Lake drying?, Reg. Environ. Change, 21, 19, https://doi.org/10.1007/s10113-021-01750-w, 2021.
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Boisier, J. P., Marinao, R., and Alvarez-Garreton, C: CR2LUC: Land use and land cover changes for the period 1950–2020 in continental Chile, (v1.0), Zenodo [data set], https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.13324250, 2024.
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Short summary
This study focuses on hyperdroughts (HDs) in central Chile, defined as years with a regional rainfall deficit exceeding 75 %. Only five HDs occurred in the last century (1924, 1968, 1998, 2019, 2021), but they caused disproportionate environmental and social impacts. In some systems, the effects were larger than expected from those considering moderate droughts and dependent on the antecedent conditions. HDs have analogs from the remote past, and they are expected to increase in the near future.
This study focuses on hyperdroughts (HDs) in central Chile, defined as years with a regional...
