Articles | Volume 29, issue 20
https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-29-5347-2025
© Author(s) 2025. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-29-5347-2025
© Author(s) 2025. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
Research article
| 
20 Oct 2025
Research article |
| 20 Oct 2025
| 20 Oct 2025
Hyperdroughts in central Chile: drivers, impacts, and projections
René Garreaud
CORRESPONDING AUTHOR
Center for Climate and Resilience Research (CR2), Santiago, Chile
Department of Geophysics, Universidad de Chile, Santiago, Chile
Juan Pablo Boisier
Center for Climate and Resilience Research (CR2), Santiago, Chile
Department of Geophysics, Universidad de Chile, Santiago, Chile
Camila Alvarez-Garreton
Center for Climate and Resilience Research (CR2), Santiago, Chile
Duncan A. Christie
Center for Climate and Resilience Research (CR2), Santiago, Chile
Laboratorio de Dendrocronología y Cambio Global. Instituto de Conservación Biodiversidad y Territorio, Universidad Austral de Chile, Valdivia, Chile
Tomás Carrasco-Escaff
Center for Climate and Resilience Research (CR2), Santiago, Chile
Iván Vergara
Center for Climate and Resilience Research (CR2), Santiago, Chile
IPATEC, CONICET-UNCo, Bariloche, Argentina
Roberto O. Chávez
Instituto de Geografía, Pontificia Universidad Católica de Valparaíso, Valparaíso, Chile
Instituto de Ecología y Biodiversidad, Santiago, Chile
Paulina Aldunce
Center for Climate and Resilience Research (CR2), Santiago, Chile
Departamento de Ciencias Ambientales y Recursos Naturales Renovables, Universidad de Chile, Santiago, Chile
Pablo Camus
Instituto de Historia, Pontificia Universidad Católica de Chile, Santiago, Chile
Manuel Suazo-Álvarez
Laboratorio de Dendrocronología y Cambio Global. Instituto de Conservación Biodiversidad y Territorio, Universidad Austral de Chile, Valdivia, Chile
Mariano Masiokas
Instituto Argentino de Nivología, Glaciología y Ciencias Ambientales, IANIGLA-CONICET, Mendoza, Argentina
Gabriel Castro
Instituto de Geografía, Pontificia Universidad Católica de Valparaíso, Valparaíso, Chile
Ariel Muñoz
Center for Climate and Resilience Research (CR2), Santiago, Chile
Instituto de Geografía, Pontificia Universidad Católica de Valparaíso, Valparaíso, Chile
Centro de Acción Climática, Pontificia Universidad Católica de Valparaíso, Valparaíso, Chile
Mauricio Zambrano-Bigiarini
Center for Climate and Resilience Research (CR2), Santiago, Chile
Department of Civil Engineering, Universidad de La Frontera, Temuco, Chile
Rodrigo Fuster
Departamento de Ciencias Ambientales y Recursos Naturales Renovables, Universidad de Chile, Santiago, Chile
Lintsiee Godoy
Departamento de Ciencias Ambientales y Recursos Naturales Renovables, Universidad de Chile, Santiago, Chile
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Cited
13 citations as recorded by crossref.
- Microbial community's shifts in an Andean glacier-fed watershed under anthropogenic pressures E. Mayol et al. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jenvman.2026.129386
- The megadrought modulation of sediment transfer in the Volcán River basin (33°S), semi-arid Andes M. San Juan et al. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jsames.2025.105903
- Decadal climate variability and increasing exposure of Chilean agriculture D. Rivera et al. https://doi.org/10.1002/ael2.70064
- Vanishing of very small glacierets throughout the Northern and Central Andes of Chile F. Ugalde et al. https://doi.org/10.1017/aog.2026.10052
- Desertification expansion significantly suppresses photosynthetic peak capacity of arid ecosystems at the global scale K. Qiu et al. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jag.2025.105042
- Above and belowground responses to prolonged drought: Shrub microsites accumulate soil nutrients while vegetation greenness declines in semiarid ecosystems F. Henríquez-Gangas et al. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jaridenv.2026.105660
- Evaluating the impact of PROTs on water security: A study of basins in Chile K. Silva-Urrutia et al. https://doi.org/10.1080/27658511.2026.2706248
- Tight stomatal regulation and high intrinsic capacity of carbon assimilation inferred from isotopic composition negatively correlate with drought-driven decline in sclerophyllous species F. Piper et al. https://doi.org/10.1093/aob/mcag100
- The influence of El Niño and Indian Ocean Dipole on the extreme decline in the water level of Lake Toba, Indonesia M. Rosid et al. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.envc.2026.101500
- A 70 year chronicle of the evolution of Echaurren Norte Glacier, Central Andes of Chile J. McPhee et al. https://doi.org/10.1017/aog.2026.10050
- Stream of blame: navigating discourses of blame in water extractivism R. Ayala et al. https://doi.org/10.1080/23251042.2026.2649845
- Identifying the Impact of Leaf-Miner Complex Insects on Nothofagus obliqua Forests by Assessing Changes in Land Surface Phenology B. Vergara et al. https://doi.org/10.3390/rs18081260
- Divergent Low-Flow Trajectories in Two Forested Catchments of the Chilean Coastal Range with Contrasting Management Histories F. Balocchi et al. https://doi.org/10.3390/f17080876
13 citations as recorded by crossref.
- Microbial community's shifts in an Andean glacier-fed watershed under anthropogenic pressures E. Mayol et al. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jenvman.2026.129386
- The megadrought modulation of sediment transfer in the Volcán River basin (33°S), semi-arid Andes M. San Juan et al. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jsames.2025.105903
- Decadal climate variability and increasing exposure of Chilean agriculture D. Rivera et al. https://doi.org/10.1002/ael2.70064
- Vanishing of very small glacierets throughout the Northern and Central Andes of Chile F. Ugalde et al. https://doi.org/10.1017/aog.2026.10052
- Desertification expansion significantly suppresses photosynthetic peak capacity of arid ecosystems at the global scale K. Qiu et al. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jag.2025.105042
- Above and belowground responses to prolonged drought: Shrub microsites accumulate soil nutrients while vegetation greenness declines in semiarid ecosystems F. Henríquez-Gangas et al. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jaridenv.2026.105660
- Evaluating the impact of PROTs on water security: A study of basins in Chile K. Silva-Urrutia et al. https://doi.org/10.1080/27658511.2026.2706248
- Tight stomatal regulation and high intrinsic capacity of carbon assimilation inferred from isotopic composition negatively correlate with drought-driven decline in sclerophyllous species F. Piper et al. https://doi.org/10.1093/aob/mcag100
- The influence of El Niño and Indian Ocean Dipole on the extreme decline in the water level of Lake Toba, Indonesia M. Rosid et al. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.envc.2026.101500
- A 70 year chronicle of the evolution of Echaurren Norte Glacier, Central Andes of Chile J. McPhee et al. https://doi.org/10.1017/aog.2026.10050
- Stream of blame: navigating discourses of blame in water extractivism R. Ayala et al. https://doi.org/10.1080/23251042.2026.2649845
- Identifying the Impact of Leaf-Miner Complex Insects on Nothofagus obliqua Forests by Assessing Changes in Land Surface Phenology B. Vergara et al. https://doi.org/10.3390/rs18081260
- Divergent Low-Flow Trajectories in Two Forested Catchments of the Chilean Coastal Range with Contrasting Management Histories F. Balocchi et al. https://doi.org/10.3390/f17080876
Saved (final revised paper)
Latest update: 06 Nov 2026
Short summary
This study focuses on hyperdroughts (HDs) in central Chile, defined as years with a regional rainfall deficit exceeding 75 %. Only five HDs occurred in the last century (1924, 1968, 1998, 2019, 2021), but they caused disproportionate environmental and social impacts. In some systems, the effects were larger than expected from those considering moderate droughts and dependent on the antecedent conditions. HDs have analogs from the remote past, and they are expected to increase in the near future.
This study focuses on hyperdroughts (HDs) in central Chile, defined as years with a regional...
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