Hydrology and Earth System Sciences
Hydrology and Earth System Sciences
HESS
Articles | Volume 29, issue 18
Articles | Volume 29, issue 18
https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-29-4739-2025
© Author(s) 2025. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-29-4739-2025
© Author(s) 2025. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
Articles | Volume 29, issue 18
Research article
 | 
29 Sep 2025
Research article |  | 29 Sep 2025

Skilful seasonal streamflow forecasting using a fully coupled global climate model

Gabriel Fernando Narváez-Campo and Constantin Ardilouze

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Cited articles

Albergel, C., Zheng, Y., Bonan, B., Dutra, E., Rodríguez-Fernández, N., Munier, S., Draper, C., de Rosnay, P., Muñoz-Sabater, J., Balsamo, G., Fairbairn, D., Meurey, C., and Calvet, J.-C.: Data assimilation for continuous global assessment of severe conditions over terrestrial surfaces, Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 4291–4316, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-24-4291-2020, 2020. a
Ardilouze, C. and Boone, A. A.: Impact of initializing the soil with a thermally and hydrologically balanced state on subseasonal predictability, Clim. Dynam., 62, 2629–2644, https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-023-07024-x, 2024. a
Ardilouze, C., Batté, L., Bunzel, F., Decremer, D., Déqué, M., Doblas-Reyes, F. J., Douville, H., Fereday, D., Guemas, V., MacLachlan, C., Müller, W., and Prodhomme, C.: Multi-model assessment of the impact of soil moisture initialization on mid-latitude summer predictability, Clim. Dynam., 49, 3959–3974, https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-017-3555-7, 2017. a
Arnal, L., Wood, A. W., Stephens, E., Cloke, H. L., and Pappenberger, F.: An efficient approach for estimating streamflow forecast skill elasticity, J. Hydrometeorol., 18, 1715–1729, https://doi.org/10.1175/JHM-D-16-0259.1, 2017. a
Batté, L., Dorel, L., Ardilouze, C., and Guérémy, J.: Documentation of the METEO-FRANCE seasonal forecasting system 8, http://www.umr-cnrm.fr/IMG/pdf/system8-technical.pdf (last access: 17 September 2025), 2021. a
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We demonstrate the capability of a global operational system to predict seasonal river discharges by accounting for interactions between the atmosphere, ocean, land and rivers. The fully coupled approach introduces a convenient single-step workflow, allowing the simultaneous production of atmospheric and streamflow forecasts. Overall, the approach outperforms the classical ensemble streamflow prediction approach, providing insight into the next-generation hydrological forecasting systems.
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