Articles | Volume 29, issue 17
https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-29-4109-2025
© Author(s) 2025. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-29-4109-2025
© Author(s) 2025. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
Research article
| 
05 Sep 2025
Research article |
| 05 Sep 2025
| 05 Sep 2025
Enhanced hydrological modeling with the WRF-Hydro lake–reservoir module at a convection-permitting scale: a case study of the Tana River basin in East Africa
Ling Zhang
College of Urban and Environmental Sciences, Hubei Normal University, Huangshi 435002, China
Centre for Severe Weather and Climate and Hydro-geological Hazards, Wuhan 430074, China
Department of Atmospheric Science, School of Environmental Studies, China University of Geosciences, Wuhan 430074, China
NORCE Norwegian Research Centre, Bjerknes Centre for Climate Research, Bergen 5007, Norway
NORCE Norwegian Research Centre, Bjerknes Centre for Climate Research, Bergen 5007, Norway
Centre for Severe Weather and Climate and Hydro-geological Hazards, Wuhan 430074, China
Department of Atmospheric Science, School of Environmental Studies, China University of Geosciences, Wuhan 430074, China
Joël Arnault
Institute of Geography, University of Augsburg, Augsburg, Germany
Karlsruhe Institute of Technology, Institute of Meteorology and Climate Research, Garmisch-Partenkirchen, Germany
Stefan Sobolowski
Geophysical Institute, University of Bergen, Bergen, Norway
Xiaoling Chen
State Key Laboratory of Information Engineering in Surveying, Mapping and Remote Sensing, Wuhan University, Wuhan 430079, China
Jianzhong Lu
State Key Laboratory of Information Engineering in Surveying, Mapping and Remote Sensing, Wuhan University, Wuhan 430079, China
Anthony Musili Mwanthi
Department of Earth and Climate Sciences, University of Nairobi, Nairobi, Kenya
IGAD Climate Prediction and Applications Centre, Nairobi, Kenya
Pratik Kad
Department of Atmospheric Science, School of Environmental Studies, China University of Geosciences, Wuhan 430074, China
Mohammed Abdullahi Hassan
IGAD Climate Prediction and Applications Centre, Nairobi, Kenya
Tanja Portele
Karlsruhe Institute of Technology, Institute of Meteorology and Climate Research, Garmisch-Partenkirchen, Germany
Harald Kunstmann
Institute of Geography, University of Augsburg, Augsburg, Germany
Karlsruhe Institute of Technology, Institute of Meteorology and Climate Research, Garmisch-Partenkirchen, Germany
Zhengkang Zuo
College of Geological and Surveying Engineering, Taiyuan University of Technology, No. 18 Xinkuangyuan Road, Taiyuan 030024, China
Related authors
No articles found.
Yinchi Zhang, Wanling Xu, Chao Deng, Shao Sun, Miaomiao Ma, Jianhui Wei, Ying Chen, Harald Kunstmann, and Lu Gao
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-2438, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-2438, 2025
This preprint is open for discussion and under review for Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences (NHESS).
Short summary
Short summary
Most studies of compound extremes assume stable climate conditions. We use high-resolution regional climate modeling and non-stationary statistical methods to assess future changes in southeastern China. Our results show that non-stationary models better capture shifts in the risk of compound extremes, highlighting that traditional methods may underestimate future threats.
Kun Xie, Lu Li, Hua Chen, Stephanie Mayer, Andreas Dobler, Chong-Yu Xu, and Ozan Mert Göktürk
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 29, 2133–2152, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-29-2133-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-29-2133-2025, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
We compared hourly and daily extreme precipitation across Norway from HARMONIE Climate models at convection-permitting 3 km (HCLIM3) and 12 km (HCLIM12) resolutions. HCLIM3 more accurately captures the extremes in most regions and seasons (except in summer). Its advantages are more pronounced for hourly extremes than for daily extremes. The results highlight the value of convection-permitting models in improving extreme-precipitation predictions and in helping the local society brace for extreme weather.
Ningpeng Dong, Haoran Hao, Mingxiang Yang, Jianhui Wei, Shiqin Xu, and Harald Kunstmann
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 29, 2023–2042, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-29-2023-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-29-2023-2025, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
Hydrometeorological forecasting is crucial for managing water resources and mitigating extreme weather events, yet current long-term forecast products are often embedded with uncertainties. We develop a deep-learning-based modelling framework to improve 30 d rainfall and streamflow forecasts by combining advanced neural networks and physical models. With the flow forecast error reduced by up to 33 %, the framework has the potential to enhance water management and disaster prevention.
Peter Yu Feng Siew, Camille Li, Stefan Pieter Sobolowski, Etienne Dunn-Sigouin, and Mingfang Ting
Weather Clim. Dynam., 5, 985–996, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-5-985-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-5-985-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
The atmospheric circulation response to surface heating at various latitudes was investigated within an idealized framework. We confirm previous results on the importance of temperature advection for balancing heating at lower latitudes. Further poleward, transient eddies become increasingly important, and eventually radiative cooling also contributes. This promotes amplified surface warming for high-latitude heating and has implications for links between sea ice loss and polar amplification.
Zhengkang Zuo and Bin Zhang
Int. Arch. Photogramm. Remote Sens. Spatial Inf. Sci., XLVIII-1-2024, 917–925, https://doi.org/10.5194/isprs-archives-XLVIII-1-2024-917-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/isprs-archives-XLVIII-1-2024-917-2024, 2024
Julia E. Weiffenbach, Henk A. Dijkstra, Anna S. von der Heydt, Ayako Abe-Ouchi, Wing-Le Chan, Deepak Chandan, Ran Feng, Alan M. Haywood, Stephen J. Hunter, Xiangyu Li, Bette L. Otto-Bliesner, W. Richard Peltier, Christian Stepanek, Ning Tan, Julia C. Tindall, and Zhongshi Zhang
Clim. Past, 20, 1067–1086, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-20-1067-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-20-1067-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Elevated atmospheric CO2 concentrations and a smaller Antarctic Ice Sheet during the mid-Pliocene (~ 3 million years ago) cause the Southern Ocean surface to become fresher and warmer, which affects the global ocean circulation. The CO2 concentration and the smaller Antarctic Ice Sheet both have a similar and approximately equal impact on the Southern Ocean. The conditions of the Southern Ocean in the mid-Pliocene could therefore be analogous to those in a future climate with smaller ice sheets.
Maximilian Graf, Andreas Wagner, Julius Polz, Llorenç Lliso, José Alberto Lahuerta, Harald Kunstmann, and Christian Chwala
Atmos. Meas. Tech., 17, 2165–2182, https://doi.org/10.5194/amt-17-2165-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/amt-17-2165-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Commercial microwave links (CMLs) can be used for rainfall retrieval. The detection of rainy periods in their attenuation time series is a crucial processing step. We investigate the usage of rainfall data from MSG SEVIRI for this task, compare this approach with existing methods, and introduce a novel combined approach. The results show certain advantages for SEVIRI-based methods, particularly for CMLs where existing methods perform poorly. Our novel combination yields the best performance.
Patrick Olschewski, Qi Sun, Jianhui Wei, Yu Li, Zhan Tian, Laixiang Sun, Joël Arnault, Tanja C. Schober, Brian Böker, Harald Kunstmann, and Patrick Laux
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-2024-95, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-2024-95, 2024
Preprint under review for HESS
Short summary
Short summary
There are indications that typhoon intensities may increase under global warming. However, further research on these projections and their uncertainties is necessary. We study changes in typhoon intensity under SSP5-8.5 for seven events affecting the Pearl River Delta using Pseudo-Global Warming and a storyline approach based on 16 CMIP6 models. Results show intensified wind speed, sea level pressure drop and precipitation levels for six events with amplified increases for individual storylines.
Patrick Olschewski, Mame Diarra Bousso Dieng, Hassane Moutahir, Brian Böker, Edwin Haas, Harald Kunstmann, and Patrick Laux
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 1099–1134, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-1099-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-1099-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
We applied a multivariate and dependency-preserving bias correction method to climate model output for the Greater Mediterranean Region and investigated potential changes in false-spring events (FSEs) and heat–drought compound events (HDCEs). Results project an increase in the frequency of FSEs in middle and late spring as well as increases in frequency, intensity, and duration for HDCEs. This will potentially aggravate the risk of crop loss and failure and negatively impact food security.
Qi Sun, Patrick Olschewski, Jianhui Wei, Zhan Tian, Laixiang Sun, Harald Kunstmann, and Patrick Laux
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 28, 761–780, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-761-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-761-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Tropical cyclones (TCs) often cause high economic loss due to heavy winds and rainfall, particularly in densely populated regions such as the Pearl River Delta (China). This study provides a reference to set up regional climate models for TC simulations. They contribute to a better TC process understanding and assess the potential changes and risks of TCs in the future. This lays the foundation for hydrodynamical modelling, from which the cities' disaster management and defence could benefit.
Dragan Petrovic, Benjamin Fersch, and Harald Kunstmann
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 265–289, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-265-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-265-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
The influence of model resolution and settings on the reproduction of heat waves in Germany between 1980–2009 is analyzed. Outputs from a high-resolution model with settings tailored to the target region are compared to those from coarser-resolution models with more general settings. Neither the increased resolution nor the tailored model settings are found to add significant value to the heat wave simulation. The models exhibit a large spread, indicating that the choice of model can be crucial.
Xin Ren, Daniel J. Lunt, Erica Hendy, Anna von der Heydt, Ayako Abe-Ouchi, Bette Otto-Bliesner, Charles J. R. Williams, Christian Stepanek, Chuncheng Guo, Deepak Chandan, Gerrit Lohmann, Julia C. Tindall, Linda E. Sohl, Mark A. Chandler, Masa Kageyama, Michiel L. J. Baatsen, Ning Tan, Qiong Zhang, Ran Feng, Stephen Hunter, Wing-Le Chan, W. Richard Peltier, Xiangyu Li, Youichi Kamae, Zhongshi Zhang, and Alan M. Haywood
Clim. Past, 19, 2053–2077, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-19-2053-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-19-2053-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
We investigate the Maritime Continent climate in the mid-Piacenzian warm period and find it is warmer and wetter and the sea surface salinity is lower compared with preindustrial period. Besides, the fresh and warm water transfer through the Maritime Continent was stronger. In order to avoid undue influence from closely related models in the multimodel results, we introduce a new metric, the multi-cluster mean, which could reveal spatial signals that are not captured by the multimodel mean.
Mohsen Soltani, Bert Hamelers, Abbas Mofidi, Christopher G. Fletcher, Arie Staal, Stefan C. Dekker, Patrick Laux, Joel Arnault, Harald Kunstmann, Ties van der Hoeven, and Maarten Lanters
Earth Syst. Dynam., 14, 931–953, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-14-931-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-14-931-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
The temporal changes and spatial patterns in precipitation events do not show a homogeneous tendency across the Sinai Peninsula. Mediterranean cyclones accompanied by the Red Sea and Persian troughs are responsible for the majority of Sinai's extreme rainfall events. Cyclone tracking captures 156 cyclones (rainfall ≥10 mm d-1) either formed within or transferred to the Mediterranean basin precipitating over Sinai.
Efi Rousi, Andreas H. Fink, Lauren S. Andersen, Florian N. Becker, Goratz Beobide-Arsuaga, Marcus Breil, Giacomo Cozzi, Jens Heinke, Lisa Jach, Deborah Niermann, Dragan Petrovic, Andy Richling, Johannes Riebold, Stella Steidl, Laura Suarez-Gutierrez, Jordis S. Tradowsky, Dim Coumou, André Düsterhus, Florian Ellsäßer, Georgios Fragkoulidis, Daniel Gliksman, Dörthe Handorf, Karsten Haustein, Kai Kornhuber, Harald Kunstmann, Joaquim G. Pinto, Kirsten Warrach-Sagi, and Elena Xoplaki
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 1699–1718, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-1699-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-1699-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
The objective of this study was to perform a comprehensive, multi-faceted analysis of the 2018 extreme summer in terms of heat and drought in central and northern Europe, with a particular focus on Germany. A combination of favorable large-scale conditions and locally dry soils were related with the intensity and persistence of the events. We also showed that such extremes have become more likely due to anthropogenic climate change and might occur almost every year under +2 °C of global warming.
Maria Chara Karypidou, Stefan Pieter Sobolowski, Lorenzo Sangelantoni, Grigory Nikulin, and Eleni Katragkou
Geosci. Model Dev., 16, 1887–1908, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-16-1887-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-16-1887-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
Southern Africa is listed among the climate change hotspots; hence, accurate climate change information is vital for the optimal preparedness of local communities. In this work we assess the degree to which regional climate models (RCMs) are influenced by the global climate models (GCMs) from which they receive their lateral boundary forcing. We find that although GCMs exert a strong impact on RCMs, RCMs are still able to display substantial improvement relative to the driving GCMs.
Lauren E. Burton, Alan M. Haywood, Julia C. Tindall, Aisling M. Dolan, Daniel J. Hill, Ayako Abe-Ouchi, Wing-Le Chan, Deepak Chandan, Ran Feng, Stephen J. Hunter, Xiangyu Li, W. Richard Peltier, Ning Tan, Christian Stepanek, and Zhongshi Zhang
Clim. Past, 19, 747–764, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-19-747-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-19-747-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
Warm climates of the Pliocene (~ 3 million years ago) are similar to projections of the near future. We find elevated concentrations of atmospheric carbon dioxide to be the most important forcing for driving changes in Pliocene surface air temperature, sea surface temperature, and precipitation. However, changes caused by the nature of Pliocene ice sheets and orography are also important, affecting the extent to which we can use the Pliocene as an analogue for our warmer future.
Stephen Outten, Camille Li, Martin P. King, Lingling Suo, Peter Y. F. Siew, Hoffman Cheung, Richard Davy, Etienne Dunn-Sigouin, Tore Furevik, Shengping He, Erica Madonna, Stefan Sobolowski, Thomas Spengler, and Tim Woollings
Weather Clim. Dynam., 4, 95–114, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-4-95-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-4-95-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
Strong disagreement exists in the scientific community over the role of Arctic sea ice in shaping wintertime Eurasian cooling. The observed Eurasian cooling can arise naturally without sea-ice loss but is expected to be a rare event. We propose a framework that incorporates sea-ice retreat and natural variability as contributing factors. A helpful analogy is of a dice roll that may result in cooling, warming, or anything in between, with sea-ice loss acting to load the dice in favour of cooling.
Julia E. Weiffenbach, Michiel L. J. Baatsen, Henk A. Dijkstra, Anna S. von der Heydt, Ayako Abe-Ouchi, Esther C. Brady, Wing-Le Chan, Deepak Chandan, Mark A. Chandler, Camille Contoux, Ran Feng, Chuncheng Guo, Zixuan Han, Alan M. Haywood, Qiang Li, Xiangyu Li, Gerrit Lohmann, Daniel J. Lunt, Kerim H. Nisancioglu, Bette L. Otto-Bliesner, W. Richard Peltier, Gilles Ramstein, Linda E. Sohl, Christian Stepanek, Ning Tan, Julia C. Tindall, Charles J. R. Williams, Qiong Zhang, and Zhongshi Zhang
Clim. Past, 19, 61–85, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-19-61-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-19-61-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
We study the behavior of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) in the mid-Pliocene. The mid-Pliocene was about 3 million years ago and had a similar CO2 concentration to today. We show that the stronger AMOC during this period relates to changes in geography and that this has a significant influence on ocean temperatures and heat transported northwards by the Atlantic Ocean. Understanding the behavior of the mid-Pliocene AMOC can help us to learn more about our future climate.
Wei Li, Jie Chen, Lu Li, Yvan J. Orsolini, Yiheng Xiang, Retish Senan, and Patricia de Rosnay
The Cryosphere, 16, 4985–5000, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-16-4985-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-16-4985-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
Snow assimilation over the Tibetan Plateau (TP) may influence seasonal forecasts over this region. To investigate the impacts of snow assimilation on the seasonal forecasts of snow, temperature and precipitation, twin ensemble reforecasts are initialized with and without snow assimilation above 1500 m altitude over the TP for spring and summer in 2018. The results show that snow assimilation can improve seasonal forecasts over the TP through the interaction between land and atmosphere.
Dragan Petrovic, Benjamin Fersch, and Harald Kunstmann
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 3875–3895, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-3875-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-3875-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
The influence of model resolution and settings on drought reproduction in Germany between 1980–2009 is investigated here. Outputs from a high-resolution model with settings tailored to the target region are compared to those from coarser-resolution models with more general settings. Gridded observational data sets serve as reference. Regarding the reproduction of drought characteristics, all models perform on a similar level, while for trends, only the modified model produces reliable outputs.
Benjamin Fersch, Andreas Wagner, Bettina Kamm, Endrit Shehaj, Andreas Schenk, Peng Yuan, Alain Geiger, Gregor Moeller, Bernhard Heck, Stefan Hinz, Hansjörg Kutterer, and Harald Kunstmann
Earth Syst. Sci. Data, 14, 5287–5307, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-14-5287-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-14-5287-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
In this study, a comprehensive multi-disciplinary dataset for tropospheric water vapor was developed. Geodetic, photogrammetric, and atmospheric modeling and data fusion techniques were used to obtain maps of water vapor in a high spatial and temporal resolution. It could be shown that regional weather simulations for different seasons benefit from assimilating these maps and that the combination of the different observation techniques led to positive synergies.
Piaoyin Zhang, Jianzhong Lu, and Xiaoling Chen
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-2022-235, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-2022-235, 2022
Preprint withdrawn
Short summary
Short summary
3 machine learning methods (OLS, DT and DNN) were applied to generate a new ensemble dataset. The new precipitation (temperature) ensemble dataset is more accurate with the R=0.81 (0.99). The analyses indicate that Europe and North America contribute more to global warming than Oceania, Africa and South America. The global continent break through 1.5 °C, 2 °C and 3 °C warming target in 2024, 2031 and 2048, meanwhile the precipitation will be accelerated polarization under SSP5-8.5.
Maria Chara Karypidou, Eleni Katragkou, and Stefan Pieter Sobolowski
Geosci. Model Dev., 15, 3387–3404, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-15-3387-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-15-3387-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
The region of southern Africa (SAF) is highly vulnerable to the impacts of climate change and is projected to experience severe precipitation shortages in the coming decades. Reliable climatic information is therefore necessary for the optimal adaptation of local communities. In this work we show that regional climate models are reliable tools for the simulation of precipitation over southern Africa. However, there is still a great need for the expansion and maintenance of observational data.
Heye Reemt Bogena, Martin Schrön, Jannis Jakobi, Patrizia Ney, Steffen Zacharias, Mie Andreasen, Roland Baatz, David Boorman, Mustafa Berk Duygu, Miguel Angel Eguibar-Galán, Benjamin Fersch, Till Franke, Josie Geris, María González Sanchis, Yann Kerr, Tobias Korf, Zalalem Mengistu, Arnaud Mialon, Paolo Nasta, Jerzy Nitychoruk, Vassilios Pisinaras, Daniel Rasche, Rafael Rosolem, Hami Said, Paul Schattan, Marek Zreda, Stefan Achleitner, Eduardo Albentosa-Hernández, Zuhal Akyürek, Theresa Blume, Antonio del Campo, Davide Canone, Katya Dimitrova-Petrova, John G. Evans, Stefano Ferraris, Félix Frances, Davide Gisolo, Andreas Güntner, Frank Herrmann, Joost Iwema, Karsten H. Jensen, Harald Kunstmann, Antonio Lidón, Majken Caroline Looms, Sascha Oswald, Andreas Panagopoulos, Amol Patil, Daniel Power, Corinna Rebmann, Nunzio Romano, Lena Scheiffele, Sonia Seneviratne, Georg Weltin, and Harry Vereecken
Earth Syst. Sci. Data, 14, 1125–1151, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-14-1125-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-14-1125-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
Monitoring of increasingly frequent droughts is a prerequisite for climate adaptation strategies. This data paper presents long-term soil moisture measurements recorded by 66 cosmic-ray neutron sensors (CRNS) operated by 24 institutions and distributed across major climate zones in Europe. Data processing followed harmonized protocols and state-of-the-art methods to generate consistent and comparable soil moisture products and to facilitate continental-scale analysis of hydrological extremes.
Zixuan Han, Qiong Zhang, Qiang Li, Ran Feng, Alan M. Haywood, Julia C. Tindall, Stephen J. Hunter, Bette L. Otto-Bliesner, Esther C. Brady, Nan Rosenbloom, Zhongshi Zhang, Xiangyu Li, Chuncheng Guo, Kerim H. Nisancioglu, Christian Stepanek, Gerrit Lohmann, Linda E. Sohl, Mark A. Chandler, Ning Tan, Gilles Ramstein, Michiel L. J. Baatsen, Anna S. von der Heydt, Deepak Chandan, W. Richard Peltier, Charles J. R. Williams, Daniel J. Lunt, Jianbo Cheng, Qin Wen, and Natalie J. Burls
Clim. Past, 17, 2537–2558, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-17-2537-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-17-2537-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
Understanding the potential processes responsible for large-scale hydrological cycle changes in a warmer climate is of great importance. Our study implies that an imbalance in interhemispheric atmospheric energy during the mid-Pliocene could have led to changes in the dynamic effect, offsetting the thermodynamic effect and, hence, altering mid-Pliocene hydroclimate cycling. Moreover, a robust westward shift in the Pacific Walker circulation can moisten the northern Indian Ocean.
Arthur M. Oldeman, Michiel L. J. Baatsen, Anna S. von der Heydt, Henk A. Dijkstra, Julia C. Tindall, Ayako Abe-Ouchi, Alice R. Booth, Esther C. Brady, Wing-Le Chan, Deepak Chandan, Mark A. Chandler, Camille Contoux, Ran Feng, Chuncheng Guo, Alan M. Haywood, Stephen J. Hunter, Youichi Kamae, Qiang Li, Xiangyu Li, Gerrit Lohmann, Daniel J. Lunt, Kerim H. Nisancioglu, Bette L. Otto-Bliesner, W. Richard Peltier, Gabriel M. Pontes, Gilles Ramstein, Linda E. Sohl, Christian Stepanek, Ning Tan, Qiong Zhang, Zhongshi Zhang, Ilana Wainer, and Charles J. R. Williams
Clim. Past, 17, 2427–2450, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-17-2427-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-17-2427-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
In this work, we have studied the behaviour of El Niño events in the mid-Pliocene, a period of around 3 million years ago, using a collection of 17 climate models. It is an interesting period to study, as it saw similar atmospheric carbon dioxide levels to the present day. We find that the El Niño events were less strong in the mid-Pliocene simulations, when compared to pre-industrial climate. Our results could help to interpret El Niño behaviour in future climate projections.
Bernd Schalge, Gabriele Baroni, Barbara Haese, Daniel Erdal, Gernot Geppert, Pablo Saavedra, Vincent Haefliger, Harry Vereecken, Sabine Attinger, Harald Kunstmann, Olaf A. Cirpka, Felix Ament, Stefan Kollet, Insa Neuweiler, Harrie-Jan Hendricks Franssen, and Clemens Simmer
Earth Syst. Sci. Data, 13, 4437–4464, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-13-4437-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-13-4437-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
In this study, a 9-year simulation of complete model output of a coupled atmosphere–land-surface–subsurface model on the catchment scale is discussed. We used the Neckar catchment in SW Germany as the basis of this simulation. Since the dataset includes the full model output, it is not only possible to investigate model behavior and interactions between the component models but also use it as a virtual truth for comparison of, for example, data assimilation experiments.
Ellen Berntell, Qiong Zhang, Qiang Li, Alan M. Haywood, Julia C. Tindall, Stephen J. Hunter, Zhongshi Zhang, Xiangyu Li, Chuncheng Guo, Kerim H. Nisancioglu, Christian Stepanek, Gerrit Lohmann, Linda E. Sohl, Mark A. Chandler, Ning Tan, Camille Contoux, Gilles Ramstein, Michiel L. J. Baatsen, Anna S. von der Heydt, Deepak Chandan, William Richard Peltier, Ayako Abe-Ouchi, Wing-Le Chan, Youichi Kamae, Charles J. R. Williams, Daniel J. Lunt, Ran Feng, Bette L. Otto-Bliesner, and Esther C. Brady
Clim. Past, 17, 1777–1794, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-17-1777-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-17-1777-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
The mid-Pliocene Warm Period (~ 3.2 Ma) is often considered an analogue for near-future climate projections, and model results from the PlioMIP2 ensemble show an increase of rainfall over West Africa and the Sahara region compared to pre-industrial conditions. Though previous studies of future projections show a west–east drying–wetting contrast over the Sahel, these results indicate a uniform rainfall increase over the Sahel in warm climates characterized by increased greenhouse gas forcing.
Wei Li, Lu Li, Jie Chen, Qian Lin, and Hua Chen
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 25, 4531–4548, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-25-4531-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-25-4531-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
Reforestation can influence climate, but the sensitivity of summer rainfall to reforestation is rarely investigated. We take two reforestation scenarios to assess the impacts of reforestation on summer rainfall under different reforestation proportions and explore the potential mechanisms. This study concludes that reforestation increases summer rainfall amount and extremes through thermodynamics processes, and the effects are more pronounced in populated areas than over the whole basin.
Martin P. King, Camille Li, and Stefan Sobolowski
Weather Clim. Dynam., 2, 759–776, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-2-759-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-2-759-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
We re-examine the uncertainty of ENSO teleconnection to the North Atlantic by considering the November–December and January–February months in the cold season, in addition to the conventional DJF months. This is motivated by previous studies reporting varying teleconnected atmospheric anomalies and the mechanisms concerned. Our results indicate an improved confidence in the patterns of the teleconnection. The finding may also have implications on research in predictability and climate impact.
Trude Eidhammer, Adam Booth, Sven Decker, Lu Li, Michael Barlage, David Gochis, Roy Rasmussen, Kjetil Melvold, Atle Nesje, and Stefan Sobolowski
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 25, 4275–4297, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-25-4275-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-25-4275-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
We coupled a detailed snow–ice model (Crocus) to represent glaciers in the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF)-Hydro model and tested it on a well-studied glacier. Several observational systems were used to evaluate the system, i.e., satellites, ground-penetrating radar (used over the glacier for snow depth) and stake observations for glacier mass balance and discharge measurements in rivers from the glacier. Results showed improvements in the streamflow projections when including the model.
Christof Lorenz, Tanja C. Portele, Patrick Laux, and Harald Kunstmann
Earth Syst. Sci. Data, 13, 2701–2722, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-13-2701-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-13-2701-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
Semi-arid regions depend on the freshwater resources from the rainy seasons as they are crucial for ensuring security for drinking water, food and electricity. Thus, forecasting the conditions for the next season is crucial for proactive water management. We hence present a seasonal forecast product for four semi-arid domains in Iran, Brazil, Sudan/Ethiopia and Ecuador/Peru. It provides a benchmark for seasonal forecasts and, finally, a crucial contribution for improved disaster preparedness.
Zhongshi Zhang, Xiangyu Li, Chuncheng Guo, Odd Helge Otterå, Kerim H. Nisancioglu, Ning Tan, Camille Contoux, Gilles Ramstein, Ran Feng, Bette L. Otto-Bliesner, Esther Brady, Deepak Chandan, W. Richard Peltier, Michiel L. J. Baatsen, Anna S. von der Heydt, Julia E. Weiffenbach, Christian Stepanek, Gerrit Lohmann, Qiong Zhang, Qiang Li, Mark A. Chandler, Linda E. Sohl, Alan M. Haywood, Stephen J. Hunter, Julia C. Tindall, Charles Williams, Daniel J. Lunt, Wing-Le Chan, and Ayako Abe-Ouchi
Clim. Past, 17, 529–543, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-17-529-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-17-529-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
The Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) is an important topic in the Pliocene Model Intercomparison Project. Previous studies have suggested a much stronger AMOC during the Pliocene than today. However, our current multi-model intercomparison shows large model spreads and model–data discrepancies, which can not support the previous hypothesis. Our study shows good consistency with future projections of the AMOC.
David K. Hutchinson, Helen K. Coxall, Daniel J. Lunt, Margret Steinthorsdottir, Agatha M. de Boer, Michiel Baatsen, Anna von der Heydt, Matthew Huber, Alan T. Kennedy-Asser, Lutz Kunzmann, Jean-Baptiste Ladant, Caroline H. Lear, Karolin Moraweck, Paul N. Pearson, Emanuela Piga, Matthew J. Pound, Ulrich Salzmann, Howie D. Scher, Willem P. Sijp, Kasia K. Śliwińska, Paul A. Wilson, and Zhongshi Zhang
Clim. Past, 17, 269–315, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-17-269-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-17-269-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
The Eocene–Oligocene transition was a major climate cooling event from a largely ice-free world to the first major glaciation of Antarctica, approximately 34 million years ago. This paper reviews observed changes in temperature, CO2 and ice sheets from marine and land-based records at this time. We present a new model–data comparison of this transition and find that CO2-forced cooling provides the best explanation of the observed global temperature changes.
Daniel J. Lunt, Fran Bragg, Wing-Le Chan, David K. Hutchinson, Jean-Baptiste Ladant, Polina Morozova, Igor Niezgodzki, Sebastian Steinig, Zhongshi Zhang, Jiang Zhu, Ayako Abe-Ouchi, Eleni Anagnostou, Agatha M. de Boer, Helen K. Coxall, Yannick Donnadieu, Gavin Foster, Gordon N. Inglis, Gregor Knorr, Petra M. Langebroek, Caroline H. Lear, Gerrit Lohmann, Christopher J. Poulsen, Pierre Sepulchre, Jessica E. Tierney, Paul J. Valdes, Evgeny M. Volodin, Tom Dunkley Jones, Christopher J. Hollis, Matthew Huber, and Bette L. Otto-Bliesner
Clim. Past, 17, 203–227, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-17-203-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-17-203-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
This paper presents the first modelling results from the Deep-Time Model Intercomparison Project (DeepMIP), in which we focus on the early Eocene climatic optimum (EECO, 50 million years ago). We show that, in contrast to previous work, at least three models (CESM, GFDL, and NorESM) produce climate states that are consistent with proxy indicators of global mean temperature and polar amplification, and they achieve this at a CO2 concentration that is consistent with the CO2 proxy record.
Masa Kageyama, Louise C. Sime, Marie Sicard, Maria-Vittoria Guarino, Anne de Vernal, Ruediger Stein, David Schroeder, Irene Malmierca-Vallet, Ayako Abe-Ouchi, Cecilia Bitz, Pascale Braconnot, Esther C. Brady, Jian Cao, Matthew A. Chamberlain, Danny Feltham, Chuncheng Guo, Allegra N. LeGrande, Gerrit Lohmann, Katrin J. Meissner, Laurie Menviel, Polina Morozova, Kerim H. Nisancioglu, Bette L. Otto-Bliesner, Ryouta O'ishi, Silvana Ramos Buarque, David Salas y Melia, Sam Sherriff-Tadano, Julienne Stroeve, Xiaoxu Shi, Bo Sun, Robert A. Tomas, Evgeny Volodin, Nicholas K. H. Yeung, Qiong Zhang, Zhongshi Zhang, Weipeng Zheng, and Tilo Ziehn
Clim. Past, 17, 37–62, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-17-37-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-17-37-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
The Last interglacial (ca. 127 000 years ago) is a period with increased summer insolation at high northern latitudes, resulting in a strong reduction in Arctic sea ice. The latest PMIP4-CMIP6 models all simulate this decrease, consistent with reconstructions. However, neither the models nor the reconstructions agree on the possibility of a seasonally ice-free Arctic. Work to clarify the reasons for this model divergence and the conflicting interpretations of the records will thus be needed.
Bette L. Otto-Bliesner, Esther C. Brady, Anni Zhao, Chris M. Brierley, Yarrow Axford, Emilie Capron, Aline Govin, Jeremy S. Hoffman, Elizabeth Isaacs, Masa Kageyama, Paolo Scussolini, Polychronis C. Tzedakis, Charles J. R. Williams, Eric Wolff, Ayako Abe-Ouchi, Pascale Braconnot, Silvana Ramos Buarque, Jian Cao, Anne de Vernal, Maria Vittoria Guarino, Chuncheng Guo, Allegra N. LeGrande, Gerrit Lohmann, Katrin J. Meissner, Laurie Menviel, Polina A. Morozova, Kerim H. Nisancioglu, Ryouta O'ishi, David Salas y Mélia, Xiaoxu Shi, Marie Sicard, Louise Sime, Christian Stepanek, Robert Tomas, Evgeny Volodin, Nicholas K. H. Yeung, Qiong Zhang, Zhongshi Zhang, and Weipeng Zheng
Clim. Past, 17, 63–94, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-17-63-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-17-63-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
The CMIP6–PMIP4 Tier 1 lig127k experiment was designed to address the climate responses to strong orbital forcing. We present a multi-model ensemble of 17 climate models, most of which have also completed the CMIP6 DECK experiments and are thus important for assessing future projections. The lig127ksimulations show strong summer warming over the NH continents. More than half of the models simulate a retreat of the Arctic minimum summer ice edge similar to the average for 2000–2018.
Øyvind Seland, Mats Bentsen, Dirk Olivié, Thomas Toniazzo, Ada Gjermundsen, Lise Seland Graff, Jens Boldingh Debernard, Alok Kumar Gupta, Yan-Chun He, Alf Kirkevåg, Jörg Schwinger, Jerry Tjiputra, Kjetil Schanke Aas, Ingo Bethke, Yuanchao Fan, Jan Griesfeller, Alf Grini, Chuncheng Guo, Mehmet Ilicak, Inger Helene Hafsahl Karset, Oskar Landgren, Johan Liakka, Kine Onsum Moseid, Aleksi Nummelin, Clemens Spensberger, Hui Tang, Zhongshi Zhang, Christoph Heinze, Trond Iversen, and Michael Schulz
Geosci. Model Dev., 13, 6165–6200, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-13-6165-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-13-6165-2020, 2020
Short summary
Short summary
The second version of the coupled Norwegian Earth System Model (NorESM2) is presented and evaluated. The temperature and precipitation patterns has improved compared to NorESM1. The model reaches present-day warming levels to within 0.2 °C of observed temperature but with a delayed warming during the late 20th century. Under the four scenarios (SSP1-2.6, SSP2-4.5, SSP3-7.0, and SSP5-8.5), the warming in the period of 2090–2099 compared to 1850–1879 reaches 1.3, 2.2, 3.1, and 3.9 K.
Wesley de Nooijer, Qiong Zhang, Qiang Li, Qiang Zhang, Xiangyu Li, Zhongshi Zhang, Chuncheng Guo, Kerim H. Nisancioglu, Alan M. Haywood, Julia C. Tindall, Stephen J. Hunter, Harry J. Dowsett, Christian Stepanek, Gerrit Lohmann, Bette L. Otto-Bliesner, Ran Feng, Linda E. Sohl, Mark A. Chandler, Ning Tan, Camille Contoux, Gilles Ramstein, Michiel L. J. Baatsen, Anna S. von der Heydt, Deepak Chandan, W. Richard Peltier, Ayako Abe-Ouchi, Wing-Le Chan, Youichi Kamae, and Chris M. Brierley
Clim. Past, 16, 2325–2341, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-16-2325-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-16-2325-2020, 2020
Short summary
Short summary
The simulations for the past climate can inform us about the performance of climate models in different climate scenarios. Here, we analyse Arctic warming in an ensemble of 16 simulations of the mid-Pliocene Warm Period (mPWP), when the CO2 level was comparable to today. The results highlight the importance of slow feedbacks in the model simulations and imply that we must be careful when using simulations of the mPWP as an analogue for future climate change.
Alan M. Haywood, Julia C. Tindall, Harry J. Dowsett, Aisling M. Dolan, Kevin M. Foley, Stephen J. Hunter, Daniel J. Hill, Wing-Le Chan, Ayako Abe-Ouchi, Christian Stepanek, Gerrit Lohmann, Deepak Chandan, W. Richard Peltier, Ning Tan, Camille Contoux, Gilles Ramstein, Xiangyu Li, Zhongshi Zhang, Chuncheng Guo, Kerim H. Nisancioglu, Qiong Zhang, Qiang Li, Youichi Kamae, Mark A. Chandler, Linda E. Sohl, Bette L. Otto-Bliesner, Ran Feng, Esther C. Brady, Anna S. von der Heydt, Michiel L. J. Baatsen, and Daniel J. Lunt
Clim. Past, 16, 2095–2123, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-16-2095-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-16-2095-2020, 2020
Short summary
Short summary
The large-scale features of middle Pliocene climate from the 16 models of PlioMIP Phase 2 are presented. The PlioMIP2 ensemble average was ~ 3.2 °C warmer and experienced ~ 7 % more precipitation than the pre-industrial era, although there are large regional variations. PlioMIP2 broadly agrees with a new proxy dataset of Pliocene sea surface temperatures. Combining PlioMIP2 and proxy data suggests that a doubling of atmospheric CO2 would increase globally averaged temperature by 2.6–4.8 °C.
Corrado Camera, Adriana Bruggeman, George Zittis, Ioannis Sofokleous, and Joël Arnault
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 20, 2791–2810, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-20-2791-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-20-2791-2020, 2020
Short summary
Short summary
Can numerical models simulate intense rainfall events and consequent streamflow in a mountainous area with small watersheds well? We applied state-of-the-art one-way-coupled atmospheric–hydrologic models and we found that, despite rainfall events simulated with low errors, large discrepancies between the observed and simulated streamflow were observed. Shifts in time and space of the modelled rainfall peak are the main reason. Still, the models can be applied for climate change impact studies.
Chris M. Brierley, Anni Zhao, Sandy P. Harrison, Pascale Braconnot, Charles J. R. Williams, David J. R. Thornalley, Xiaoxu Shi, Jean-Yves Peterschmitt, Rumi Ohgaito, Darrell S. Kaufman, Masa Kageyama, Julia C. Hargreaves, Michael P. Erb, Julien Emile-Geay, Roberta D'Agostino, Deepak Chandan, Matthieu Carré, Partrick J. Bartlein, Weipeng Zheng, Zhongshi Zhang, Qiong Zhang, Hu Yang, Evgeny M. Volodin, Robert A. Tomas, Cody Routson, W. Richard Peltier, Bette Otto-Bliesner, Polina A. Morozova, Nicholas P. McKay, Gerrit Lohmann, Allegra N. Legrande, Chuncheng Guo, Jian Cao, Esther Brady, James D. Annan, and Ayako Abe-Ouchi
Clim. Past, 16, 1847–1872, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-16-1847-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-16-1847-2020, 2020
Short summary
Short summary
This paper provides an initial exploration and comparison to climate reconstructions of the new climate model simulations of the mid-Holocene (6000 years ago). These use state-of-the-art models developed for CMIP6 and apply the same experimental set-up. The models capture several key aspects of the climate, but some persistent issues remain.
Josephine R. Brown, Chris M. Brierley, Soon-Il An, Maria-Vittoria Guarino, Samantha Stevenson, Charles J. R. Williams, Qiong Zhang, Anni Zhao, Ayako Abe-Ouchi, Pascale Braconnot, Esther C. Brady, Deepak Chandan, Roberta D'Agostino, Chuncheng Guo, Allegra N. LeGrande, Gerrit Lohmann, Polina A. Morozova, Rumi Ohgaito, Ryouta O'ishi, Bette L. Otto-Bliesner, W. Richard Peltier, Xiaoxu Shi, Louise Sime, Evgeny M. Volodin, Zhongshi Zhang, and Weipeng Zheng
Clim. Past, 16, 1777–1805, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-16-1777-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-16-1777-2020, 2020
Short summary
Short summary
El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is the largest source of year-to-year variability in the current climate, but the response of ENSO to past or future changes in climate is uncertain. This study compares the strength and spatial pattern of ENSO in a set of climate model simulations in order to explore how ENSO changes in different climates, including past cold glacial climates and past climates with different seasonal cycles, as well as gradual and abrupt future warming cases.
Benjamin Fersch, Till Francke, Maik Heistermann, Martin Schrön, Veronika Döpper, Jannis Jakobi, Gabriele Baroni, Theresa Blume, Heye Bogena, Christian Budach, Tobias Gränzig, Michael Förster, Andreas Güntner, Harrie-Jan Hendricks Franssen, Mandy Kasner, Markus Köhli, Birgit Kleinschmit, Harald Kunstmann, Amol Patil, Daniel Rasche, Lena Scheiffele, Ulrich Schmidt, Sandra Szulc-Seyfried, Jannis Weimar, Steffen Zacharias, Marek Zreda, Bernd Heber, Ralf Kiese, Vladimir Mares, Hannes Mollenhauer, Ingo Völksch, and Sascha Oswald
Earth Syst. Sci. Data, 12, 2289–2309, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-12-2289-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-12-2289-2020, 2020
Cited articles
Adjei, K. A., Ren, L., Appiah-Adjei, E. K., and Odai, S. N.: Application of satellite-derived rainfall for hydrological modelling in the data-scarce Black Volta trans-boundary basin, Hydrol. Res., 46, 777–791, https://doi.org/10.2166/nh.2014.111, 2015.
Ajami, H., Evans, J. P., McCabe, M. F., and Stisen, S.: Technical Note: Reducing the spin-up time of integrated surface water–groundwater models, Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 18, 5169–5179, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-18-5169-2014, 2014a.
Ajami, H., McCabe, M. F., Evans, J. P., and Stisen, S.: Assessing the impact of model spin-up on surface water-groundwater interactions using an integrated hydrologic model, Water Resour. Res., 50, 2636–2656, https://doi.org/10.1002/2013WR014258, 2014b.
Alavoine, M. and Grenier, P.: The distinct problems of physical inconsistency and of multivariate bias involved in the statistical adjustment of climate simulations, Int. J. Climatol., 43, 1211–1233, https://doi.org/10.1002/joc.7878, 2023.
Anyah, R. O. and Semazzi, F. H. M.: Climate variability over the Greater Horn of Africa based on NCAR AGCM ensemble, Theor. Appl. Climatol., 86, 39–62, https://doi.org/10.1007/s00704-005-0203-7, 2006.
Arnault, J., Mwanthi, A. M., Portele, T., Li, L., Rummler, T., Fersch, B., Hassan, M. A., Bahaga, T. K., Zhang, Z., Mortey, E. M., Achugbu, I. C., Moutahir, H., Sy, S., Wei, J., Laux, P., Sobolowski, S., and Kunstmann, H.: Regional water cycle sensitivity to afforestation: synthetic numerical experiments for tropical Africa, Frontiers in Climate, 5, 1233536, https://doi.org/10.3389/fclim.2023.1233536, 2023.
Berthou, S., Rowell, D. P., Kendon, E. J., Roberts, M. J., Stratton, R. A., Crook, J. A., and Wilcox, C.: Improved climatological precipitation characteristics over West Africa at convection-permitting scales, Clim. Dynam., 53, 1991–2011, https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-019-04759-4, 2019.
Biskop, S., Krause, P., Helmschrot, J., Fink, M., and Flügel, W.-A.: Assessment of data uncertainty and plausibility over the Nam Co Region, Tibet, Adv. Geosci., 31, 57–65, https://doi.org/10.5194/adgeo-31-57-2012, 2012.
Bitew, M. M. and Gebremichael, M.: Evaluation of satellite rainfall products through hydrologic simulation in a fully distributed hydrologic model, Water Resour. Res., 47, W06526, https://doi.org/10.1029/2010WR009917, 2011.
Bonekamp, P. N. J., Collier, E., and Immerzeel, W.: The Impact of spatial resolution, land use, and spinup time on resolving spatial precipitation patterns in the Himalayas, J. Hydrometeorol., 19, 1565–1581, https://doi.org/10.1175/JHM-D-17-0212.1, 2018.
Chen, J., Brissette, F. P., and Leconte, R.: Uncertainty of downscaling method in quantifying the impact of climate change on hydrology, J. Hydrol., 401, 190–202, https://doi.org/10.1016/J.JHYDROL.2011.02.020, 2011.
Cosgrove, B. A., Lohmann, D., Mitchell, K. E., Houser, P. R., Wood, E. F., Schaake, J. C., Robock, A., Sheffield, J., Duan, Q., Luo, L., Higgins, R. W., Pinker, R. T., and Tarpley, J. D.: Land surface model spin-up behavior in the North American Land Data Assimilation System (NLDAS), J. Geophys. Res.-Atmos., 108, 8842, https://doi.org/10.1029/2002jd003316, 2003.
Crook, J., Klein, C., Folwell, S., Taylor, C. M., Parker, D. J., Stratton, R., and Stein, T.: Assessment of the Representation of West African Storm Lifecycles in Convection-Permitting Simulations, Earth and Space Science, 6, 818–835, https://doi.org/10.1029/2018EA000491, 2019.
Dee, D. P., Uppala, S. M., Simmons, A. J., Berrisford, P., Poli, P., Kobayashi, S., Andrae, U., Balmaseda, M. A., Balsamo, G., Bauer, P., Bechtold, P., Beljaars, A. C. M., van de Berg, L., Bidlot, J., Bormann, N., Delsol, C., Dragani, R., Fuentes, M., Geer, A. J., Haimberger, L., Healy, S. B., Hersbach, H., Hólm, E. V., Isaksen, L., Kållberg, P., Köhler, M., Matricardi, M., Mcnally, A. P., Monge-Sanz, B. M., Morcrette, J. J., Park, B. K., Peubey, C., de Rosnay, P., Tavolato, C., Thépaut, J. N., and Vitart, F.: The ERA-Interim reanalysis: Configuration and performance of the data assimilation system, Q. J. Roy. Meteor. Soc., 137, 553–597, https://doi.org/10.1002/qj.828, 2011.
Dezfuli, A. K., Ichoku, C. M., Huffman, G. J., Mohr, K. I., Selker, J. S., van de Giesen, N., Hochreutener, R., and Annor, F. O.: Validation of IMERG precipitation in Africa, J. Hydrometeorol., 18, 2817–2825, https://doi.org/10.1175/JHM-D-17-0139.1, 2017.
Dosio, A., Panitz, H. J., Schubert-Frisius, M., and Lüthi, D.: Dynamical downscaling of CMIP5 global circulation models over CORDEX-Africa with COSMO-CLM: evaluation over the present climate and analysis of the added value, Clim. Dynam., 44, 2637–2661, https://doi.org/10.1007/S00382-014-2262-X, 2015.
Dudhia, J.: Numerical Study of Convection Observed during the Winter Monsoon Experiment Using a Mesoscale Two-Dimensional Model, J. Atmos. Sci., 46, 3077–3107, 1989.
Folwell, S. S., Taylor, C. M., and Stratton, R. A.: Contrasting contributions of surface hydrological pathways in convection permitting and parameterised climate simulations over Africa and their feedbacks on the atmosphere, Clim. Dynam., 59, 633–648, https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-022-06144-0, 2022.
Funk, C., Peterson, P., Landsfeld, M., Pedreros, D., Verdin, J., Shukla, S., Husak, G., Rowland, J., Harrison, L., Hoell, A., and Michaelsen, J.: The climate hazards infrared precipitation with stations – A new environmental record for monitoring extremes, Scientific Data, 2, 150066, https://doi.org/10.1038/sdata.2015.66, 2015.
Giorgi, F., Coppola, E., Jacob, D., Teichmann, C., Omar, S. A., Ashfaq, M., Ban, N., Bülow, K., Bukovsky, M., Buntemeyer, L., Cavazos, T., Ciarlo, J., da Rocha, R. P., Das, S., di Sante, F., Evans, J. P., Gao, X., Giuliani, G., Glazer, R. H., Hoffmann, P., Im, E. S., Langendijk, G., Lierhammer, L., Llopart, M., Mueller, S., Luna-Nino, R., Nogherotto, R., Pichelli, E., Raffaele, F., Reboita, M., Rechid, D., Remedio, A., Remke, T., Sawadogo, W., Sieck, K., Torres-Alavez, J. A., and Weber, T.: The CORDEX-CORE EXP-I Initiative: Description and Highlight Results from the Initial Analysis, B. Am. Meteorol. Soc., 103, E293–E310, https://doi.org/10.1175/BAMS-D-21-0119.1, 2022.
Gochis, D. J., Barlage, M., Dugger, A., FitzGerald, K., Karsten, L., McAllister, M., McCreight, J., Mills, J., RafieeiNasab, A., Read, L., Sampson, K., Yates, D., and Yu, W.: The WRF-Hydro modeling system technical description (Version 5.0), NCAR Technical Note, 107 pp., National Center for Atmospheric Research, Boulder, CO, USA, available at: https://ral.ucar.edu/sites/default/files/public/WRFHydroV5TechnicalDescription.pdf (last access: 23 August 2025), 2018.
Guevara Luna, M. A., Casallas, A., Belalcázar Cerón, L. C., and Clappier, A.: Implementation and evaluation of WRF simulation over a city with complex terrain using Alos-Palsar 0.4 s topography, Environ. Sci. Pollut. R., 27, 37818–37838, https://doi.org/10.1007/s11356-020-09824-8, 2020.
Hanasaki, N., Kanae, S., and Oki, T.: A reservoir operation scheme for global river routing models, J. Hydrol., 327, 22–41, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jhydrol.2005.11.011, 2006.
Hersbach, H., Bell, B., Berrisford, P., Hirahara, S., Horányi, A., Muñoz-Sabater, J., Nicolas, J., Peubey, C., Radu, R., Schepers, D., Simmons, A., Soci, C., Abdalla, S., Abellan, X., Balsamo, G., Bechtold, P., Biavati, G., Bidlot, J., Bonavita, M., De Chiara, G., Dahlgren, P., Dee, D., Diamantakis, M., Dragani, R., Flemming, J., Forbes, R., Fuentes, M., Geer, A., Haimberger, L., Healy, S., Hogan, R. J., Hólm, E., Janisková, M., Keeley, S., Laloyaux, P., Lopez, P., Lupu, C., Radnoti, G., de Rosnay, P., Rozum, I., Vamborg, F., Villaume, S., and Thépaut, J. N.: The ERA5 global reanalysis, Q. J. Roy. Meteor. Soc., 146, 1999–2049, https://doi.org/10.1002/qj.3803, 2020.
Huffman, G. J., Bolvin, D. T., Braithwaite, D., Hsu, K. L., Joyce, R. J., Kidd, C., Nelkin, E. J., Sorooshian, S., Stocker, E. F., Tan, J., Wolff, D. B., and Xie, P.: Integrated Multi-satellite Retrievals for the Global Precipitation Measurement (GPM) Mission (IMERG), Adv. Glob. Change Res., 67, 343–353, https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-030-24568-9_19, 2020.
Ji, Z. and Kang, S.: Projection of snow cover changes over China under RCP scenarios, Clim. Dynam., 41, 589–600, https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-012-1473-2, 2013.
Johnston, B. R., Xie, F., and Liu, C.: The Effects of Deep Convection on Regional Temperature Structure in the Tropical Upper Troposphere and Lower Stratosphere, J. Geophys. Res.-Atmos., 123, 1585–1603, https://doi.org/10.1002/2017JD027120, 2018.
Julien, P. Y., Saghafian, B., and Ogden, F. L.: Raster-Based Hydrologic Modeling of Spatially-Varied Surface Runoff, J. Am. Water Resour. As., 31, 523–536, https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1752-1688.1995.tb04039.x, 1995.
Kad, P. and Ha, K. J.: Recent Tangible Natural Variability of Monsoonal Orographic Rainfall in the Eastern Himalayas, J. Geophys. Res.-Atmos., 128, e2023JD038759, https://doi.org/10.1029/2023JD038759, 2023.
Kad, P., Ha, K. J., Lee, S. S., and Chu, J. E.: Projected Changes in Mountain Precipitation Under CO2-Induced Warmer Climate, Earths Future, 11, e2023EF003886, https://doi.org/10.1029/2023EF003886, 2023.
Kawase, H., Hara, M., Yoshikane, T., Ishizaki, N. N., Uno, F., Hatsushika, H., and Kimura, F.: Altitude dependency of future snow cover changes over Central Japan evaluated by a regional climate model, J. Geophys. Res.-Atmos., 118, 12444–12457, https://doi.org/10.1002/2013JD020429, 2013.
Kendon, E. J., Prein, A. F., Senior, C. A., and Stirling, A.: Challenges and outlook for convection-permitting climate modelling, Philos. T. Roy. Soc. A, 379, 20190547, https://doi.org/10.1098/rsta.2019.0547, 2021.
Kenya Climate Change Case Study: https://www.trocaire.org/sites/default/files/resources/policy/kenya-climate-change-case-study.pdf, last access: 20 October 2024.
Kerandi, N., Arnault, J., Laux, P., Wagner, S., Kitheka, J., and Kunstmann, H.: Joint atmospheric-terrestrial water balances for East Africa: a WRF-Hydro case study for the upper Tana River basin, Theor. Appl. Climatol., 131, 1337–1355, https://doi.org/10.1007/s00704-017-2050-8, 2018.
Kerandi, N. M., Laux, P., Arnault, J., and Kunstmann, H.: Performance of the WRF model to simulate the seasonal and interannual variability of hydrometeorological variables in East Africa: a case study for the Tana River basin in Kenya, Theor. Appl. Climatol., 130, 401–418, https://doi.org/10.1007/s00704-016-1890-y, 2017.
Kiptum, A., Antonarakis, A. S., Todd, M. C., and Guigma, K.: Characteristics, drivers, and predictability of flood events in the Tana River Basin, Kenya, Journal of Hydrology: Regional Studies, 53, 101748, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ejrh.2024.101748, 2024.
Knoop, L., Sambalino, F., and van Steenbergen, F.: Securing Water and Land in the Tana Basin: A Resource Book for Water Managers and Practitioners, 3R Water Secretariat and UNESCO-IHE, Delft, the Netherlands, ISBN 978-90-79658-06-0, https://www.hydrology.nl/images/docs/dutch/2012.11_Tana_Basin_Kenya.pdf (last access: 23 August 2025), 2012.
Lange, K., Mogoi, S., and Van Weert, F.: The economics of ecosystem services of the Tana River Basin, Wetlands Kenya, Technical Report, 1–2, https://www.wetlands.org/publication/the-economics-of-ecosystem-services-of-the-tana-river-basin/ (last access: 23 August 2025), 2015.
Lehner, B., Liermann, C. R., Revenga, C., Vörömsmarty, C., Fekete, B., Crouzet, P., Döll, P., Endejan, M., Frenken, K., Magome, J., Nilsson, C., Robertson, J. C., Rödel, R., Sindorf, N., and Wisser, D.: High-resolution mapping of the world's reservoirs and dams for sustainable river-flow management, Front. Ecol. Environ., 9, 494–502, https://doi.org/10.1890/100125, 2011.
Li, C., Tang, G., and Hong, Y.: Cross-evaluation of ground-based, multi-satellite and reanalysis precipitation products: Applicability of the Triple Collocation method across Mainland China, J. Hydrol., 562, 71–83, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jhydrol.2018.04.039, 2018.
Li, L., Gochis, D. J., Sobolowski, S., and Mesquita, M. D. S.: Evaluating the present annual water budget of a Himalayan headwater river basin using a high-resolution atmosphere-hydrology model, J. Geophys. Res., 122, 4786–4807, https://doi.org/10.1002/2016JD026279, 2017.
Li, L., Pontoppidan, M., Sobolowski, S., and Senatore, A.: The impact of initial conditions on convection-permitting simulations of a flood event over complex mountainous terrain, Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 771–791, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-24-771-2020, 2020.
Ma, Y., Yang, Y., Han, Z., Tang, G., Maguire, L., Chu, Z., and Hong, Y.: Comprehensive evaluation of Ensemble Multi-Satellite Precipitation Dataset using the Dynamic Bayesian Model Averaging scheme over the Tibetan plateau, J. Hydrol., 556, 634–644, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jhydrol.2017.11.050, 2018.
Maingi, J. K. and Marsh, S. E.: Quantifying hydrologic impacts following dam construction along the Tana River, Kenya, J. Arid Environ., 50, 53–79, https://doi.org/10.1006/jare.2000.0860, 2002.
Maranan, M., Fink, A. H., Knippertz, P., Amekudzi, L. K., Atiah, W. A., and Stengel, M.: A process-based validation of gpm imerg and its sources using a mesoscale rain gauge network in the west african forest zone, J. Hydrometeorol., 21, 729–749, https://doi.org/10.1175/JHM-D-19-0257.1, 2020.
Mlawer, E. J., Taubman, S. J., Brown, P. D., Iacono, M. J., and Clough, S. A.: Radiative transfer for inhomogeneous atmospheres: RRTM, a validated correlated-k model for the longwave, J. Geophys. Res.-Atmos., 102, 16663–16682, https://doi.org/10.1029/97jd00237, 1997.
Monsieurs, E., Kirschbaum, D. B., Tan, J., Mateso, J. C. M., Jacobs, L., Plisnier, P. D., Thiery, W., Umutoni, A., Musoni, D., Bibentyo, T. M., Ganza, G. B., Mawe, G. I., Bagalwa, L., Kankurize, C., Michellier, C., Stanley, T., Kervyn, F., Kervyn, M., Demoulin, A., and Dewitte, O.: Evaluating TMPA rainfall over the sparsely gauged East African Rift, J. Hydrometeorol., 19, 1507–1528, https://doi.org/10.1175/JHM-D-18-0103.1, 2018.
Morris, M. D.: Factorial sampling plans for preliminary computational experiments, Technometrics, 33, 161–174, https://doi.org/10.1080/00401706.1991.10484804, 1991.
Naabil, E., Lamptey, B. L., Arnault, J., Kunstmann, H., and Olufayo, A.: Water resources management using the WRF-Hydro modelling system: Case-study of the Tono dam in West Africa, Journal of Hydrology: Regional Studies, 12, 196–209, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ejrh.2017.05.010, 2017.
Nakanishi, M. and Niino, H.: An improved Mellor-Yamada Level-3 model: Its numerical stability and application to a regional prediction of advection fog, Bound.-Lay. Meteorol., 119, 397–407, https://doi.org/10.1007/s10546-005-9030-8, 2006.
NASA: Deep concern about food security in Eastern Africa, NASA, https://www.nasa.gov/ (last access: 23 August 2025), 2022.
NASA Earth Observatory: Devastating flooding in East Africa, NASA Earth Observatory, https://earthobservatory.nasa.gov/ (last access: 23 August 2025), 2024.
Nash, J. E. and Sutcliffe, J. V.: River flow forecasting through conceptual models part I – A discussion of principles, J. Hydrol., 10, 282–290, https://doi.org/10.1016/0022-1694(70)90255-6, 1970.
Nearing, G., Cohen, D., Dube, V., Gauch, M., Gilon, O., Harrigan, S., Hassidim, A., Klotz, D., Kratzert, F., Metzger, A., Nevo, S., Pappenberger, F., Prudhomme, C., Shalev, G., Shenzis, S., Tekalign, T. Y., Weitzner, D., and Matias, Y.: Global prediction of extreme floods in ungauged watersheds, Nature, 627, 559–563, 2024.
Oludhe, C., Sankarasubramanian, A., Sinha, T., Devineni, N., and Lall, U.: The role of multimodel climate forecasts in improving water and energy management over the tana river basin, Kenya, J. Appl. Meteorol. Clim., 52, 2460–2475, https://doi.org/10.1175/JAMC-D-12-0300.1, 2013.
Otieno, V. O. and Anyah, R. O.: CMIP5 simulated climate conditions of the Greater Horn of Africa (GHA). Part 1: Contemporary climate, Clim. Dynam., 41, 2081–2097, https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-012-1549-z, 2013.
Palmieri, A., Annandale, G. W., Dinar, A., Johndrow, T. B., Kawashima, S., and Shah, F.: Reservoir conservation: economic and engineering evaluation of alternative strategies for managing sedimentation in storage reservoirs, The RESCON approach, World Bank, Washington, DC, 102 pp., https://documents.worldbank.org/curated/en/819541468138875126/pdf/349540v10Reservoir0conservation0RESCON.pdf (last access: 23 August 2025), 2003.
Pohl, B., Crétat, J., and Camberlin, P.: Testing WRF capability in simulating the atmospheric water cycle over Equatorial East Africa, Clim. Dynam., 37, 1357–1379, https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-011-1024-2, 2011.
Quenum, G. M. L. D., Arnault, J., Klutse, N. A. B., Zhang, Z., Kunstmann, H., and Oguntunde, P. G.: Potential of the Coupled WRF/WRF-Hydro Modeling System for Flood Forecasting in the Ouémé River (West Africa), Water-Sui., 14, 1192, https://doi.org/10.3390/w14081192, 2022.
Rasmussen, R., Ikeda, K., Liu, C., Gochis, D., Clark, M., Dai, A., Gutmann, E., Dudhia, J., Chen, F., Barlage, M., Yates, D., and Zhang, G.: Climate change impacts on the water balance of the Colorado headwaters: High-resolution regional climate model simulations, J. Hydrometeorol., 15, 1091–1116, https://doi.org/10.1175/JHM-D-13-0118.1, 2014.
Ryu, Y., Lim, Y. J., Ji, H. S., Park, H. H., Chang, E. C., and Kim, B. J.: Applying a coupled hydrometeorological simulation system to flash flood forecasting over the Korean Peninsula, Asia-Pac. J. Atmos. Sci., 53, 421–430, https://doi.org/10.1007/s13143-017-0045-0, 2017.
Sampson, K. and Gochis, D. J.: WRF-Hydro GIS Pre-Processing Tools, Version 2.2 Documentation, NCAR Technical Note, National Center for Atmospheric Research, Boulder, CO, USA, 1–39, https://ral.ucar.edu/projects/wrf_hydro/ (last access: 22 August 2025), 2015.
Schaake, J. C., Koren, V. I., Duan, Q. Y., Mitchell, K., and Chen, F.: Simple water balance model for estimating runoff at different spatial and temporal scales, J. Geophys. Res.-Atmos., 101, 7461–7475, https://doi.org/10.1029/95JD02892, 1996.
Schmidli, J., Frei, C., and Vidale, P. L.: Downscaling from GCM precipitation: A benchmark for dynamical and statistical downscaling methods, Int. J. Climatol., 26, 679–689, https://doi.org/10.1002/joc.1287, 2006.
Schumacher, V., Fernández, A., Justino, F., and Comin, A.: WRF High Resolution Dynamical Downscaling of Precipitation for the Central Andes of Chile and Argentina, Front. Earth Sci., 8, 328, https://doi.org/10.3389/feart.2020.00328, 2020.
Schwartz, C. S.: Reproducing the september 2013 record-breaking rainfall over the colorado front range with high-resolution WRF forecasts, Weather Forecast., 29, 393–402, https://doi.org/10.1175/WAF-D-13-00136.1, 2014.
Seck, A., Welty, C., and Maxwell, R. M.: Spin-up behavior and effects of initial conditions for an integrated hydrologic model, Water Resour. Res., 51, 2188–2210, https://doi.org/10.1002/2014WR016371, 2015.
Senatore, A., Mendicino, G., Gochis, D. J., Yu, W., Yates, D. N., and Kunstmann, H.: Fully coupled atmosphere-hydrology simulations for the central Mediterranean: Impact of enhanced hydrological parameterization for short and long time scales, J. Ad. Model. Earth Sy., 7, 1693–1715, https://doi.org/10.1002/2015MS000510, 2015.
Siderius, C., Biemans, H., Kashaigili, J. J., and Conway, D.: Going local: Evaluating and regionalizing a global hydrological model's simulation of river flows in a medium-sized East African basin, Journal of Hydrology: Regional Studies, 19, 349–364, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ejrh.2018.10.007, 2018.
Skamarock, W. C., Klemp, J. B., Dudhia, J., Gill, D. O., Barker, D. M., Duda, M. G., Huang, X.-Y., Wang, W., and Powers, J. G.: A Description of the Advanced Research WRF Version 4, https://doi.org/10.6084/m9.figshare.7369994.v4, 2019.
Song, X. M., Kong, F. Z., Zhan, C. S., Han, J. W., and Zhang, X. H.: Parameter identification and global sensitivity analysis of Xin'anjiang model using meta-modeling approach, Water Science and Engineering, 6, 1–17, 2013.
Stratton, R. A., Senior, C. A., Vosper, S. B., Folwell, S. S., Boutle, I. A., Earnshaw, P. D., Kendon, E., Lock, A. P., Malcolm, A., Manners, J., Morcrette, C. J., Short, C., Stirling, A. J., Taylor, C. M., Tucker, S., Webster, S., and Wilkinson, J. M.: A Pan-African convection-permitting regional climate simulation with the met office unified model: CP4-Africa, J. Climate, 31, 3485–3508, https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-17-0503.1, 2018.
Tao, W., Huang, G., Lau, W. K. M., Dong, D., Wang, P., and Wen, G.: How can CMIP5 AGCMs' resolution influence precipitation in mountain areas: the Hengduan Mountains?, Clim. Dynam., 54, 159–172, https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-019-04993-w, 2020.
Taye, M. T. and Dyer, E.: Hydrologic Extremes in a Changing Climate: a Review of Extremes in East Africa, Current Climate Change Reports, 10, 1–11, https://doi.org/10.1007/s40641-024-00193-9, 2024.
Taylor, K. E.: Summarizing multiple aspects of model performance in a single diagram, J. Geophys. Res.-Atmos., 106, 7183–7192, https://doi.org/10.1029/2000JD900719, 2001.
Taylor, R. G., Todd, M. C., Kongola, L., Maurice, L., Nahozya, E., Sanga, H., and Macdonald, A. M.: Evidence of the dependence of groundwater resources on extreme rainfall in East Africa, Nat. Clim. Change, 3, 374–378, https://doi.org/10.1038/nclimate1731, 2013.
Teutschbein, C. and Seibert, J.: Bias correction of regional climate model simulations for hydrological climate-change impact studies: Review and evaluation of different methods, J. Hydrol., 456–457, 12–29, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jhydrol.2012.05.052, 2012.
Tucker, S. O., Chapman, S., Jackson, L. S., Marsham, J. H., Stratton, R. A., and Senior, C. A.: Convection-permitting regional climate change simulations for understanding future climate and informing decision making in Africa, B. Am. Meteorol. Soc., 103, E1802–E1825, https://doi.org/10.1175/BAMS-D-21-0140.1, 2022.
van Lipzig, N. P. M., Van de Walle, J., Belušiæ, D., Berthou, S., Coppola, E., Demuzere, M., Fink, A. H., Finney, D. L., Glazer, R., Ludwig, P., Marsham, J. H., Nikulin, G., Pinto, J. G., Rowell, D. P., Wu, M., and Thiery, W.: Representation of precipitation and top-of-atmosphere radiation in a multi-model convection-permitting ensemble for the Lake Victoria Basin (East-Africa), Clim. Dynam., 60, 4033–4054, https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-022-06541-5, 2023.
Wang, F., Ni, G., Riley, W. J., Tang, J., Zhu, D., and Sun, T.: Evaluation of the WRF lake module (v1.0) and its improvements at a deep reservoir, Geosci. Model Dev., 12, 2119–2138, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-12-2119-2019, 2019.
Wehbe, Y., Temimi, M., Weston, M., Chaouch, N., Branch, O., Schwitalla, T., Wulfmeyer, V., Zhan, X., Liu, J., and Al Mandous, A.: Analysis of an extreme weather event in a hyper-arid region using WRF-Hydro coupling, station, and satellite data, Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 19, 1129–1149, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-19-1129-2019, 2019.
Wei, T.: A review of sensitivity analysis methods in building energy analysis, Renew. Sust. Energ. Rev., 20, 411–419, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.rser.2012.12.014, 2013.
Weusthoff, T., Ament, F., Arpagaus, M., and Rotach, M. W.: Assessing the benefits of convection-permitting models by neighborhood verification: Examples from MAP D-PHASE, Mon. Weather Rev., 138, 3418–3433, https://doi.org/10.1175/2010MWR3380.1, 2010.
Williams, A. P. and Funk, C.: A westward extension of the warm pool leads to a westward extension of the Walker circulation, drying eastern Africa, Clim. Dynam., 37, 2417–2435, https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-010-0984-y, 2011.
Yang, Z. L., Niu, G. Y., Mitchell, K. E., Chen, F., Ek, M. B., Barlage, M., Longuevergne, L., Manning, K., Niyogi, D., Tewari, M., and Xia, Y.: The community Noah land surface model with multiparameterization options (Noah-MP): 2. Evaluation over global river basins, J. Geophys. Res.-Atmos., 116, D12110, https://doi.org/10.1029/2010JD015140, 2011.
Yucel, I., Onen, A., Yilmaz, K. K., and Gochis, D. J.: Calibration and evaluation of a flood forecasting system: Utility of numerical weather prediction model, data assimilation and satellite-based rainfall, J. Hydrol., 523, 49–66, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jhydrol.2015.01.042, 2015.
Zajac, Z., Revilla-Romero, B., Salamon, P., Burek, P., Hirpa, F., and Beck, H.: The impact of lake and reservoir parameterization on global streamflow simulation, J. Hydrol., 548, 552–568, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jhydrol.2017.03.022, 2017.
Zandler, H., Haag, I., and Samimi, C.: Evaluation needs and temporal performance differences of gridded precipitation products in peripheral mountain regions, Sci. Rep.-UK, 9, 5172, https://doi.org/10.1038/s41598-019-51666-z, 2019.
Zhang, L. and Li, L.: WRF-Hydro modelling at Tana basin, NIRD RDA [data set], https://doi.org/10.11582/2025.9ayc1toj, 2025.
Short summary
To address challenges related to unreliable hydrological simulations, we present an enhanced hydrological simulation with a refined climate model and a more comprehensive hydrological model. The model with the two parts outperforms that without, especially in migrating bias in peak flow and dry-season flow. Our findings highlight the enhanced hydrological simulation capability, with the refined climate and lake module contributing 24 % and 76 % improvement, respectively.
To address challenges related to unreliable hydrological simulations, we present an enhanced...
