Articles | Volume 29, issue 15
https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-29-3629-2025
© Author(s) 2025. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-29-3629-2025
© Author(s) 2025. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
Research article
| 
08 Aug 2025
Research article |
| 08 Aug 2025
| 08 Aug 2025
Will rivers become more intermittent in France? Learning from an extended set of hydrological projections
INRAE Lyon-Grenoble Auvergne-Rhône-Alpes, RiverLy, Villeurbanne, France
Lionel Benoit
INRAE PACA, Biostatistique et processus SPatiaux, Avignon, France
Louis Héraut
INRAE Lyon-Grenoble Auvergne-Rhône-Alpes, RiverLy, Villeurbanne, France
INRAE Lyon-Grenoble Auvergne-Rhône-Alpes, RiverLy, Villeurbanne, France
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Short summary
This study uses a multi-model approach to assess future changes in river flow intermittency across France under climate change. Combining projections from the Explore2 project with historical flow observations, logistic regressions estimate the daily probability of flow intermittency (PFI) under RCP2.6, RCP4.5, and RCP8.5 scenarios. Results suggest intensifying and prolonged dry spells throughout the 21st century, with southern France more affected, while uncertainty remains higher in northern regions.
This study uses a multi-model approach to assess future changes in river flow intermittency...
