Hydrology and Earth System Sciences
Hydrology and Earth System Sciences
HESS
Articles | Volume 29, issue 15
Articles | Volume 29, issue 15
https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-29-3629-2025
© Author(s) 2025. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
Special issue:
https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-29-3629-2025
© Author(s) 2025. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
Articles | Volume 29, issue 15
Research article
 | 
08 Aug 2025
Research article |  | 08 Aug 2025

Will rivers become more intermittent in France? Learning from an extended set of hydrological projections

Tristan Jaouen, Lionel Benoit, Louis Héraut, and Eric Sauquet

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Short summary
This study uses a multi-model approach to assess future changes in river flow intermittency across France under climate change. Combining projections from the Explore2 project with historical flow observations, logistic regressions estimate the daily probability of flow intermittency (PFI) under RCP2.6, RCP4.5, and RCP8.5 scenarios. Results suggest intensifying and prolonged dry spells throughout the 21st century, with southern France more affected, while uncertainty remains higher in northern regions.
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Drought, society, and ecosystems (NHESS/BG/GC/HESS inter-journal...