Articles | Volume 29, issue 15
https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-29-3629-2025
https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-29-3629-2025
Research article
 | 
08 Aug 2025
Research article |  | 08 Aug 2025

Will rivers become more intermittent in France? Learning from an extended set of hydrological projections

Tristan Jaouen, Lionel Benoit, Louis Héraut, and Eric Sauquet

Data sets

Ensemble des projections hydrologiques Explore2 du débit E. Sauquet et al. https://entrepot.recherche.data.gouv.fr/dataverse/explore2-projections_hydrologiques

Messages et enseignements du projet Explore2 E. Sauquet et al. https://doi.org/10.57745/J3XIPW

Ensemble de projections Explore2 : Changements moyens et incertitudes associées G. Évin et al. https://doi.org/10.57745/KWH320

Observatoire National Des Etiages (ONDE) OFB https://hubeau.eaufrance.fr/page/api-ecoulement

Model code and software

tjaouen/WillRiversBecomeMoreIntermittentInFrance: WillRiversBecomeMoreIntermittentInFrance_Article T. Jaouen https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.15974001

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Short summary
This study uses a multi-model approach to assess future changes in river flow intermittency across France under climate change. Combining projections from the Explore2 project with historical flow observations, logistic regressions estimate the daily probability of flow intermittency (PFI) under RCP2.6, RCP4.5, and RCP8.5 scenarios. Results suggest intensifying and prolonged dry spells throughout the 21st century, with southern France more affected, while uncertainty remains higher in northern regions.
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