Articles | Volume 29, issue 14
https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-29-3101-2025
© Author(s) 2025. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-29-3101-2025
© Author(s) 2025. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
Research article
| 
21 Jul 2025
Research article |
| 21 Jul 2025
| 21 Jul 2025
Influence of storm type on compound flood drivers of a mid-latitude coastal urban environment
Laoshan Laboratory, Qingdao, 266237, China
Department of Civil, Environmental and Ocean Engineering, Stevens Institute of Technology, Hoboken, NJ, 07030, USA
Philip M. Orton
Department of Civil, Environmental and Ocean Engineering, Stevens Institute of Technology, Hoboken, NJ, 07030, USA
James F. Booth
Earth and Environmental Science, The Graduate Center, City University of New York, New York, NY, 10016, USA
Earth and Atmospheric Science, The City College of New York, City University of New York, New York, NY, 10031, USA
Thomas Wahl
Department of Civil, Environmental and Construction Engineering, University of Central Florida, Orlando, FL, 32816, USA
National Center for Integrated Coastal Research, University of Central Florida, Orlando, FL, 32816, USA
Arthur DeGaetano
Northeast Regional Climate Centre Department of Earth and Atmospheric Sciences, Cornell University, Ithaca, NY, 14853, USA
Joel Kaatz
Arcadis, New York, NY, 10279, USA
Radley M. Horton
Columbia Climate School, Columbia University, New York, NY, 10025, USA
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Sara Santamaria-Aguilar, Pravin Maduwantha, Alejandra R. Enriquez, and Thomas Wahl
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-1938, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-1938, 2025
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Traditional flood assessments use an event-based approach, assuming flood risk matches the chance of flood drivers. However, flooding also depends on topography and the spatio-temporal features of events. The response-based approach uses many events to estimate flood hazard directly. In Gloucester City (NJ, U.S.), we find that frequent events can cause rare (1 %) flood levels due to their spatio-temporal characteristics. Including these factors is key for accurate flood hazard estimates.
Shima Kasaei, Philip M. Orton, David K. Ralston, and John C. Warner
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 29, 2043–2058, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-29-2043-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-29-2043-2025, 2025
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Coastal urban areas are highly prone to flooding from rainfall, storm surge, and the combination of both. We improve a coastal model and use it to quantify flooding from Hurricane Ida in the Jamaica Bay watershed of New York City (NYC), creating a flood map and flooded area estimation. Experiments with shifted storm tracks and rainfall timing at high tide show that Ida, already the worst rainfall in NYC, could have been worse. This highlights the area's vulnerability and the need for thorough flood risk analysis.
Catherine C. Ivanovich, Adam H. Sobel, Radley M. Horton, Ana M. B. Nunes, Rosmeri Porfírio Rocha, and Suzana J. Camargo
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.21203/rs.3.rs-5355924/v2, https://doi.org/10.21203/rs.3.rs-5355924/v2, 2025
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Here we identify the drivers of Rio de Janeiro’s record-breaking November 2023 heatwave. We find that springtime extreme heat in the city is becoming more frequent and heat events of the magnitude experienced in November 2023 may become significantly more likely with continued climate change. These results characterizing the evolving risk for extreme heat in Rio de Janeiro are essential for the city’s development of targeted hazard management plans.
Pravin Maduwantha, Thomas Wahl, Sara Santamaria-Aguilar, Robert Jane, Sönke Dangendorf, Hanbeen Kim, and Gabriele Villarini
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-1557, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-1557, 2025
This preprint is open for discussion and under review for Hydrology and Earth System Sciences (HESS).
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Compound flooding occurs when multiple drivers, such as heavy rain and storm surge, occur simultaneously. Comprehensive compound flood risk assessments require simulating a many storm events using flood models, but such historical data are limited. To address this, we developed a statistical framework to generate large numbers of synthetic yet realistic storm events for use in flood modeling.
Joshua Green, Ivan D. Haigh, Niall Quinn, Jeff Neal, Thomas Wahl, Melissa Wood, Dirk Eilander, Marleen de Ruiter, Philip Ward, and Paula Camus
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 25, 747–816, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-25-747-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-25-747-2025, 2025
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Compound flooding, involving the combination or successive occurrence of two or more flood drivers, can amplify flood impacts in coastal/estuarine regions. This paper reviews the practices, trends, methodologies, applications, and findings of coastal compound flooding literature at regional to global scales. We explore the types of compound flood events, their mechanistic processes, and the range of terminology. Lastly, this review highlights knowledge gaps and implications for future practices.
Jordan Eissner, David Mechem, Yi Jin, Virendra Ghate, and James Booth
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-3438, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-3438, 2025
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Low-level clouds have important radiative feedbacks and can occur in a range of meteorological conditions, yet our knowledge and prediction of them are insufficient. We evaluate model forecasts of low-level cloud properties across a cold front and the associated environments that they form in. The model represents the meteorological conditions well and produces broken clouds behind the cold front in areas of strong surface forcing, large stability, and large-scale subsiding motion.
Pravin Maduwantha, Thomas Wahl, Sara Santamaria-Aguilar, Robert Jane, James F. Booth, Hanbeen Kim, and Gabriele Villarini
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 4091–4107, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-4091-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-4091-2024, 2024
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When assessing the likelihood of compound flooding, most studies ignore that it can arise from different storm types with distinct statistical characteristics. Here, we present a new statistical framework that accounts for these differences and shows how neglecting these can impact the likelihood of compound flood potential.
Sönke Dangendorf, Qiang Sun, Thomas Wahl, Philip Thompson, Jerry X. Mitrovica, and Ben Hamlington
Earth Syst. Sci. Data, 16, 3471–3494, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-16-3471-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-16-3471-2024, 2024
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Sea-level information from the global ocean is sparse in time and space, with comprehensive data being limited to the period since 2005. Here we provide a novel reconstruction of sea level and its contributing causes, as determined by a Kalman smoother approach applied to tide gauge records over the period 1900–2021. The new reconstruction shows a continuing acceleration in global mean sea-level rise since 1970 that is dominated by melting land ice. Contributors vary significantly by region.
Simon Treu, Sanne Muis, Sönke Dangendorf, Thomas Wahl, Julius Oelsmann, Stefanie Heinicke, Katja Frieler, and Matthias Mengel
Earth Syst. Sci. Data, 16, 1121–1136, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-16-1121-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-16-1121-2024, 2024
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This article describes a reconstruction of monthly coastal water levels from 1900–2015 and hourly data from 1979–2015, both with and without long-term sea level rise. The dataset is based on a combination of three datasets that are focused on different aspects of coastal water levels. Comparison with tide gauge records shows that this combination brings reconstructions closer to the observations compared to the individual datasets.
Cameron Bertossa, Peter Hitchcock, Arthur DeGaetano, and Riwal Plougonven
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2022-601, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2022-601, 2022
Preprint archived
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This work has identified characteristic spatial and temporal scales for non-Gaussian outbreaks in forecasts, specifically, bimodality. Methodology is introduced which allows one to connect meteorological phenomena to bimodal outbreaks. Large-scale circulation interacting with local processes is uncovered as a frequent ingredient to such outbreaks. These insights not only provide a deeper understanding of the dynamical processes involved, but also have drastic implications for forecast skill.
Katherine L. Towey, James F. Booth, Alejandra Rodriguez Enriquez, and Thomas Wahl
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 1287–1300, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-1287-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-1287-2022, 2022
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Coastal flooding due to storm surge from tropical cyclones is a significant hazard. The influence of tropical cyclone characteristics, including its proximity, intensity, path angle, and speed, on the magnitude of storm surge is examined along the eastern United States. No individual characteristic was found to be strongly related to how much surge occurred at a site, though there is an increased likelihood of high surge occurring when tropical cyclones are both strong and close to a location.
Cameron Bertossa, Peter Hitchcock, Arthur DeGaetano, and Riwal Plougonven
Weather Clim. Dynam., 2, 1209–1224, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-2-1209-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-2-1209-2021, 2021
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While the assumption of Gaussianity leads to many simplifications, ensemble forecasts often exhibit non-Gaussian distributions. This work has systematically identified the presence of a specific case of
non-Gaussianity, bimodality. It has been found that bimodality occurs in a large portion of global 2 m temperature forecasts. This has drastic implications on forecast skill as the minimum probability in a bimodal distribution often lies at the maximum probability of a Gaussian distribution.
Ahmed A. Nasr, Thomas Wahl, Md Mamunur Rashid, Paula Camus, and Ivan D. Haigh
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 25, 6203–6222, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-25-6203-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-25-6203-2021, 2021
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We analyse dependences between different flooding drivers around the USA coastline, where the Gulf of Mexico and the southeastern and southwestern coasts are regions of high dependence between flooding drivers. Dependence is higher during the tropical season in the Gulf and at some locations on the East Coast but higher during the extratropical season on the West Coast. The analysis gives new insights on locations, driver combinations, and the time of the year when compound flooding is likely.
Jiayi Fang, Thomas Wahl, Jian Fang, Xun Sun, Feng Kong, and Min Liu
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 25, 4403–4416, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-25-4403-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-25-4403-2021, 2021
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A comprehensive assessment of compound flooding potential is missing for China. We investigate dependence, drivers, and impacts of storm surge and precipitation for coastal China. Strong dependence exists between driver combinations, with variations of seasons and thresholds. Sea level rise escalates compound flood potential. Meteorology patterns are pronounced for low and high compound flood potential. Joint impacts from surge and precipitation were much higher than from each individually.
Paula Camus, Ivan D. Haigh, Ahmed A. Nasr, Thomas Wahl, Stephen E. Darby, and Robert J. Nicholls
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 21, 2021–2040, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-21-2021-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-21-2021-2021, 2021
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In coastal regions, floods can arise through concurrent drivers, such as precipitation, river discharge, storm surge, and waves, which exacerbate the impact. In this study, we identify hotspots of compound flooding along the southern coast of the North Atlantic Ocean and the northern coast of the Mediterranean Sea. This regional assessment can be considered a screening tool for coastal management that provides information about which areas are more predisposed to experience compound flooding.
Yasser Hamdi, Ivan D. Haigh, Sylvie Parey, and Thomas Wahl
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 21, 1461–1465, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-21-1461-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-21-1461-2021, 2021
Robert Jane, Luis Cadavid, Jayantha Obeysekera, and Thomas Wahl
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 20, 2681–2699, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-20-2681-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-20-2681-2020, 2020
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Full dependence is assumed between drivers in flood protection assessments of coastal water control structures in south Florida. A 2-D analysis of rainfall and coastal water level showed that the magnitude of the conservative assumption in the original design is highly sensitive to the regional sea level rise projection considered. The vine copula and HT04 model outperformed five higher-dimensional copulas in capturing the dependence between rainfall, coastal water level, and groundwater level.
Veeshan Narinesingh, James F. Booth, Spencer K. Clark, and Yi Ming
Weather Clim. Dynam., 1, 293–311, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-1-293-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-1-293-2020, 2020
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This work investigates the influence of orography on atmospheric blocking dynamics, spatial frequency, and duration. Using an idealized model, a landless integration and integrations with mountains are analyzed. The dynamical evolution of blocking in the idealized model is found to be similar to reanalysis. Orography is found to significantly increase blocking and anchors where blocks most likely occur (i.e., just upstream from mountains and near storm track exits).
Anaïs Couasnon, Dirk Eilander, Sanne Muis, Ted I. E. Veldkamp, Ivan D. Haigh, Thomas Wahl, Hessel C. Winsemius, and Philip J. Ward
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 20, 489–504, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-20-489-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-20-489-2020, 2020
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When a high river discharge coincides with a high storm surge level, this can exarcebate flood level, depth, and duration, resulting in a so-called compound flood event. These events are not currently included in global flood models. In this research, we analyse the timing and correlation between modelled discharge and storm surge level time series in deltas and estuaries. Our results provide a first indication of regions along the global coastline with a high compound flooding potential.
Alistair Hendry, Ivan D. Haigh, Robert J. Nicholls, Hugo Winter, Robert Neal, Thomas Wahl, Amélie Joly-Laugel, and Stephen E. Darby
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 3117–3139, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-23-3117-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-23-3117-2019, 2019
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Flooding can arise from multiple sources, including waves, extreme sea levels, rivers, and severe rainfall. When two or more sources combine, the consequences can be greatly multiplied. We find the potential for the joint occurrence of extreme sea levels and river discharge to be greater on the western coast of the UK compared to the eastern coast. This is due to the weather conditions generating each flood source around the UK. These results will help increase our flood forecasting ability.
Chao-Yuan Yang, Jiping Liu, Yongyun Hu, Radley M. Horton, Liqi Chen, and Xiao Cheng
The Cryosphere, 10, 2429–2452, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-10-2429-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-10-2429-2016, 2016
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The anomaly correlation analysis between the decadal hindcast and observed sea ice suggests that in the Arctic, the areas showing significant predictive skill become broader associated with increasing lead times. This area expansion is largely because nearly all the models are capable of predicting the observed decreasing Arctic sea ice cover. Antarctic sea ice decadal hindcasts do not show broad predictive skill at any timescales.
Alex C. Ruane, Claas Teichmann, Nigel W. Arnell, Timothy R. Carter, Kristie L. Ebi, Katja Frieler, Clare M. Goodess, Bruce Hewitson, Radley Horton, R. Sari Kovats, Heike K. Lotze, Linda O. Mearns, Antonio Navarra, Dennis S. Ojima, Keywan Riahi, Cynthia Rosenzweig, Matthias Themessl, and Katharine Vincent
Geosci. Model Dev., 9, 3493–3515, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-9-3493-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-9-3493-2016, 2016
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The Vulnerability, Impacts, Adaptation, and Climate Services (VIACS) Advisory Board for CMIP6 was created to improve communications between communities that apply climate model output for societal benefit and the climate model centers. This manuscript describes the establishment of the VIACS Advisory Board as a coherent avenue for communication utilizing leading networks, experts, and programs; results of initial interactions during the development of CMIP6; and its potential next activities.
Related subject area
Subject: Coasts and Estuaries | Techniques and Approaches: Mathematical applications
Analytical model captures intratidal variation in salinity in a convergent, well-mixed estuary
Spatiotemporal variation of Van der Burgh's coefficient in a salt plug estuary
Hydrological dynamics of water sources in a Mediterranean lagoon
Estimations of tidal characteristics and aquifer parameters via tide-induced head changes in coastal observation wells
Determination of spatially varying Van der Burgh's coefficient from estuarine parameter to describe salt transport in an estuary
Using flushing rate to investigate spring-neap and spatial variations of gravitational circulation and tidal exchanges in an estuary
Yanwen Xu, Antonius J. F. Hoitink, Jinhai Zheng, Karl Kästner, and Wei Zhang
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 4309–4322, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-23-4309-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-23-4309-2019, 2019
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A new, unsteady analytical solution is presented to simulate the spatio-temporal variation in salinity in convergent, well-mixed estuaries. A first application in the Pearl River estuary shows it to be an efficient approach for predicting salt intrusion dynamics with satisfying accuracy. The model can be used to decide on water-fetching methods related to drinking-water supply. The model explains and quantifies the time difference between salinity at high water slack and the maximum salinity.
Dinesh Chandra Shaha, Yang-Ki Cho, Bong Guk Kim, M. Rafi Afruz Sony, Sampa Rani Kundu, and M. Faruqul Islam
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 21, 4563–4572, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-21-4563-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-21-4563-2017, 2017
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In this work, Van der Burgh's coefficient, K, is determined in the dry and wet seasons in a salt plug estuary to examine the contributions of tidal versus density-driven salt transport mechanisms. Gravitational circulation was entirely dominant over tidal dispersion in the wet season, whereas density-induced inverse and positive gravitational circulation facilitated an inverse and a positive estuarine circulation seaward and landward from the salt plug area during the dry season, respectively.
C. Stumpp, A. Ekdal, I. E. Gönenc, and P. Maloszewski
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 18, 4825–4837, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-18-4825-2014, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-18-4825-2014, 2014
Y.-J. Chen, G.-Y. Chen, H.-D. Yeh, and D.-S. Jeng
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 15, 1473–1482, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-15-1473-2011, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-15-1473-2011, 2011
D. C. Shaha and Y.-K. Cho
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 15, 1369–1377, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-15-1369-2011, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-15-1369-2011, 2011
D. C. Shaha, Y.-K. Cho, G.-H. Seo, C.-S. Kim, and K. T. Jung
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 14, 1465–1476, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-14-1465-2010, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-14-1465-2010, 2010
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Short summary
Urban flooding can be driven by rain and storm surge or the combination of the two, which is called compound flooding. In this study, we analyzed hourly historical rain and surge data for New York City to provide a more detailed statistical analysis than prior studies of this topic. The analyses reveal that tropical cyclones (e.g., hurricanes) have potential for causing more extreme compound floods than other storms, while extratropical cyclones cause less extreme, more frequent compound events.
Urban flooding can be driven by rain and storm surge or the combination of the two, which is...
