Hydrology and Earth System Sciences
Hydrology and Earth System Sciences
HESS
Articles | Volume 29, issue 11
Articles | Volume 29, issue 11
https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-29-2429-2025
© Author(s) 2025. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-29-2429-2025
© Author(s) 2025. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
Articles | Volume 29, issue 11
Research article
 | 
11 Jun 2025
Research article |  | 11 Jun 2025

An extension of the logistic function to account for nonstationary drought losses

Tongtiegang Zhao, Zecong Chen, Yongyong Zhang, Bingyao Zhang, and Yu Li

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Cited articles

AghaKouchak, A., Mirchi, A., Madani, K., Di Baldassarre, G., Nazemi, A., Alborzi, A., Anjileli, H., Azarderakhsh, M., Chiang, F., Hassanzadeh, E., Huning, L. S., Mallakpour, I., Martinez, A., Mazdiyasni, O., Moftakhari, H., Norouzi, H., Sadegh, M., Sadeqi, D., Van Loon, A. F., and Wanders, N.: Anthropogenic Drought: Definition, Challenges, and Opportunities, Rev. Geophys., 59, e2019RG000683, https://doi.org/10.1029/2019RG000683, 2021. 
Apurv, T. and Cai, X.: Regional Drought Risk in the Contiguous United States, Geophys. Res. Lett., 48, e2020GL092200, https://doi.org/10.1029/2020GL092200, 2021. 
Baez-Villanueva, O. M., Zambrano-Bigiarini, M., Miralles, D. G., Beck, H. E., Siegmund, J. F., Alvarez-Garreton, C., Verbist, K., Garreaud, R., Boisier, J. P., and Galleguillos, M.: On the timescale of drought indices for monitoring streamflow drought considering catchment hydrological regimes, Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 28, 1415–1439, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-1415-2024, 2024. 
Barichivich, J., Osborn, T. J., Harris, I., van der Schrier, G., and Jones, P. D.: Monitoring global drought using the self-calibrating palmer drought severity index [in “state of the climate in 2023”], B. Am. Meteorol. Soc., 105, S70–S71, https://doi.org/10.1175/BAMS-D-24-0116.1, 2024 (data available at: https://crudata.uea.ac.uk/cru/data/drought/, last access: 6 January 2025). 
Beguería, S., Vicente Serrano, S. M., Reig-Gracia, F., and Latorre Garcés, B.: SPEIbase v.2.10 [dataset]: A comprehensive tool for global drought analysis, Consejo Superior de Investigaciones Científicas [data set], https://doi.org/10.20350/digitalCSIC/16497, 2024. 
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The classic logistic function characterizes the stationary relationship between drought loss and intensity. This paper accounts for time in the magnitude, shape and location parameters of the logistic function and derives nonstationary intensity loss functions. A case study is designed to test the functions for drought-affected populations by province in mainland China from 2006 to 2023. Overall, the nonstationary intensity loss functions are shown to be a useful tool for drought management.
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