Articles | Volume 29, issue 11
https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-29-2321-2025
https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-29-2321-2025
Research article
 | 
03 Jun 2025
Research article |  | 03 Jun 2025

Analysis of past and future droughts causing clay shrinkage in France

Sophie Barthelemy, Bertrand Bonan, Miquel Tomas-Burguera, Gilles Grandjean, Séverine Bernardie, Jean-Philippe Naulin, Patrick Le Moigne, Aaron Boone, and Jean-Christophe Calvet

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Barbosa, P., Masante, D., Arias Muños, C., Cammalleri, C., de Jager, A., Magni, D., Mazzeschi, M., McCormick, N., Naumann, G., Spinoni, J., and Vogt, J.: Drought in Europe September 2020, Publications Office of the European Union, https://doi.org/10.2760/415204 (last access 26 May 2025), 2020. 
Barthelemy, S.: Analyzing past and future droughts that induce clay shrinkage in France using an index based on water budget simulation for trees – article data, Figshare [data set], https://figshare.com/s/61c73ec14ed0b876641e (last access: 26 May 2025), 2025. 
Barthelemy, S., Bonan, B., Calvet, J.-C., Grandjean, G., Moncoulon, D., Kapsambelis, D., and Bernardie, S.: A new approach for drought index adjustment to clay-shrinkage-induced subsidence over France: advantages of the interactive leaf area index, Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 999–1016, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-999-2024, 2024. 
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Short summary
A drought index is developed that quantifies drought on an annual scale, making it applicable to monitoring clay shrinkage damage to buildings. A comparison with the number of insurance claims for subsidence shows that the presence of trees near individual houses must be taken into account. Significant soil moisture droughts occurred in France in 2003, 2018, 2019, 2020, and 2022. Particularly high index values are observed in 2022. It is found that droughts will become more severe in the future.
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