Articles | Volume 29, issue 11
https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-29-2321-2025
© Author(s) 2025. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-29-2321-2025
© Author(s) 2025. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
Research article
| 
03 Jun 2025
Research article |
| 03 Jun 2025
| 03 Jun 2025
Analysis of past and future droughts causing clay shrinkage in France
Sophie Barthelemy
CORRESPONDING AUTHOR
CNRM, Université de Toulouse, Météo-France, CNRS, Toulouse, France
Bureau de Recherches Géologiques et Minières (BRGM), Orléans, France
Department of R&D Modeling Cat and Agriculture, Caisse Centrale de Réassurance (CCR), Paris, France
Bertrand Bonan
CNRM, Université de Toulouse, Météo-France, CNRS, Toulouse, France
Miquel Tomas-Burguera
CNRM, Université de Toulouse, Météo-France, CNRS, Toulouse, France
now at: University of the Balearic Islands, Palma, Balearic Islands, Spain, and Natural Hazards and Emergencies Observatory of the Balearic Islands, Inca, Balearic Islands, Spain
Gilles Grandjean
Bureau de Recherches Géologiques et Minières (BRGM), Orléans, France
Séverine Bernardie
Bureau de Recherches Géologiques et Minières (BRGM), Orléans, France
Jean-Philippe Naulin
Department of R&D Modeling Cat and Agriculture, Caisse Centrale de Réassurance (CCR), Paris, France
Patrick Le Moigne
CNRM, Université de Toulouse, Météo-France, CNRS, Toulouse, France
Aaron Boone
CNRM, Université de Toulouse, Météo-France, CNRS, Toulouse, France
Jean-Christophe Calvet
CORRESPONDING AUTHOR
CNRM, Université de Toulouse, Météo-France, CNRS, Toulouse, France
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EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2026-4137, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2026-4137, 2026
This preprint is open for discussion and under review for Geoscientific Model Development (GMD).
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In mid-altitude mountainous areas, snow acts as a water reservoir and is impacted by forest: to represent it we use a model called MEB/Crocus. It has been developed in boreal forests. Its results at a mid-altitude alpine site (the Col de Porte) were not convincing. We modify parametrizations that govern the behavior of intercepted snow to have a more realistic representation. We improve results of simulated snowpack under forest at Col de Porte and do not change performance in boreal sites.
Lucie Armand, Guillaume Chambon, Olivier Cerdan, Yannick Thiery, Nathalie Marçot, Louis Ferradou, Nicolas Saby, and Séverine Bernardie
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 26, 3987–4012, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-26-3987-2026, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-26-3987-2026, 2026
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This research examines how extreme-rainfall-induced landslides affect predictive tools for shallow landslides. Focusing on Storm Alex (France), we compared predictions with and without Alex-induced landslides. Results show that Alex-induced landslides do not follow the same triggering conditions as those observed during more frequent rainfalls, leading to different rainfall thresholds and susceptibility maps. This highlights the importance of accounting for rare events when predicting landslide.
Tanguy Lunel, Belén Martí, Aaron Boone, and Patrick Le Moigne
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 30, 5117–5143, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-30-5117-2026, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-30-5117-2026, 2026
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Modelling evapotranspiration is essential for understanding the water cycle. While irrigation is known to increase evapotranspiration, it is less known that it also modifies local weather, which can in turn partially reduce evapotranspiration. This latter phenomenon is overlooked in some land surface model configurations. This study investigates and quantifies the impact of this oversight, showing that land surface models overestimate evapotranspiration by about 25% for crops in irrigated areas.
Bertrand Decharme, Diane Tzanos, Lucas Hardouin, Aaron Boone, Marie Minvielle, Patrick Le Moigne, and Rémi Gaillard
Geosci. Model Dev., 19, 7239–7277, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-19-7239-2026, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-19-7239-2026, 2026
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We developed a new method to represent how organic matter in soils, together with a mineral soil compactness adjustment, influences the movement of water and heat in land models. We implemented this approach in a global model and performed long-term simulations driven by weather data and global soil maps. Compared with an older empirical method, it produces more consistent soil moisture, runoff, evaporation, and ground temperature and shows closer agreement with observations.
Matthias Cuntz, Stephan Thober, Anne Verhoef, Yijian Zeng, Aaron Boone, Agnès Ducharne, Sujan Koirala, David M. Lawrence, Philipp de Vrese, Carsten Montzka, Sonia I. Seneviratne, Harry Vereecken, Dani Or, Salma Tafasca, Naoki Mizukami, Rich Ellis, Patrick C. McGuire, and Lukas Gudmundsson
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Land surface models (LSMs) are essential tools to analyze future climate change. Here we pushed state-of-the-art LSMs out of their comfort zone revealing hidden connections between processes encoded into the models. The LSMs reacted differently due to complex, sometimes counter-intuitive interactions of different water fluxes. We identified surface runoff and soil evaporation as the two main reasons behind model differences, which should be improved by using more mechanistic descriptions.
Oscar Rojas-Munoz, Constantin Ardilouze, Bertrand Bonan, Diane Tzanos, Darren Ghent, Céline Lamarche, Thomas Nagler, and Jean-Christophe Calvet
The Cryosphere, 20, 4099–4115, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-20-4099-2026, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-20-4099-2026, 2026
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This study evaluated how updating land cover maps, such as forests, grasslands, and croplands, affects simulations of snow and land surface temperatures across Europe from 2010 to 2022. Results using older, less detailed maps were compared with those from newer, high-resolution data. The updated maps improved the accuracy of snow predictions, particularly in areas where grasslands transitioned to forests. However, the improvements were less noticeable for temperature simulations.
Matthieu Lafaysse, Marie Dumont, Basile De Fleurian, Mathieu Fructus, Rafife Nheili, Léo Viallon-Galinier, Matthieu Baron, Aaron Boone, Axel Bouchet, Julien Brondex, Carlo Carmagnola, Bertrand Cluzet, Kévin Fourteau, Ange Haddjeri, Pascal Hagenmuller, Giulia Mazzotti, Marie Minvielle, Samuel Morin, Louis Quéno, Léon Roussel, Pierre Spandre, François Tuzet, and Vincent Vionnet
Geosci. Model Dev., 19, 6273–6334, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-19-6273-2026, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-19-6273-2026, 2026
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This article is a comprehensive description of the 3.0.2 stable release of the Crocus snowpack model. It describes various new implementations since the last reference article in 2012 and a review of the available scientific evaluations and applications of the model. This provides guidance for the future of numerical snow modelling.
Syam Chintala, Lionel Jarlan, Vincent Rivalland, Aaron Boone, Oluwakemi Dare-Idowu, Valerie Le Dantec, Gilles Boulet, BVN P. Kambhammettu, and Aurore Brut
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2026-3119, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2026-3119, 2026
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We studied how maize crops use water and absorb carbon under contrasting climates using a land surface model coupled with a photosynthesis scheme. The model successfully reproduced ecosystem-scale crop productivity, water loss, and water use efficiency, a key indicator linking carbon uptake and water use. Our results show that the model can reliably capture crop responses to climate and irrigation practices, helping improve predictions of agricultural water use and crop productivity.
Paul D. Hamer, Miha Markelj, Oscar Rojas-Munoz, Bertrand Bonan, Jean-Christophe Calvet, Virginie Marécal, Alex Guenther, Heidi Trimmel, Islen Vallejo, Sabine Eckhardt, Gabriela Sousa Santos, Katerina Sindelarova, David Simpson, Norbert Schmidbauer, Heidi Hellén, Pascal Rubli, Stefan Reimann, Anja Claude, Dagmar Kubistin, Julie Cozic, James Dernie, and Leonor Tarrasón
Earth Syst. Sci. Data, 18, 3635–3669, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-18-3635-2026, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-18-3635-2026, 2026
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Plants release gases like isoprene that can form ozone and affect air quality. Using models and satellite data, we mapped the emissions of isoprene from plants across Europe and found that droughts can reduce leaf growth, leading to lower emissions. This shows that to understand and predict air quality, we must also understand how drought impacts vegetation. Our findings highlight the value of linking extreme weather, plant health, and pollution in models of the Earth system as a whole.
Yann Baehr, Pierre Vanderbecken, Bertrand Bonan, Catherine Robert, Mathieu Regimbeau, François Pimont, Kevyn Raynal, Xiangzhuo Liu, Remi Savazzi, Moncef Garouani, Josiane Mothe, Nemesio Rodriguez-Fernandez, Lionel Jarlan, and Jean-Christophe Calvet
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This preprint is open for discussion and under review for Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences (NHESS).
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We developed a new method to estimate daily land evaporation at high resolution across the Iberian Peninsula, explicitly accounting for irrigation. By combining satellite and meteorological data, we show that irrigation can strongly increase evaporation in agricultural areas. The results better match ground observations and improve understanding of water use. This approach can support farming decisions and water management at the regional scale, and will be extended to global applications.
Belén Martí, Jannis Groh, Guylaine Canut, and Aaron Boone
Geosci. Model Dev., 19, 1991–2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-19-1991-2026, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-19-1991-2026, 2026
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Jasmin Vural, Pierre Vanderbecken, Bertrand Bonan, Oscar Rojas-Munoz, and Jean-Christophe Calvet
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Pierre Vanderbecken, Jasmin Vural, Oscar Rojas-Munoz, Sébastien Garrigues, Bertrand Bonan, Cédric Bacour, Uwe Rascher, Bastian Siegmann, Patricia de Rosnay, and Jean-Christophe Calvet
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New satellite observations are used to improve our understanding of regional-scale vegetation. Innovative artificial intelligence methods are employed to combine the available information. The effectiveness of this approach is evaluated using independent observations. The results show that agricultural practices such as irrigation can be modelled more accurately.
Aurélien Mirebeau, Cécile de Munck, Bertrand Bonan, Christine Delire, Aude Lemonsu, Valéry Masson, and Stephan Weber
Geosci. Model Dev., 18, 5329–5349, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-5329-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-5329-2025, 2025
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The greening of cities is recommended to limit the effects of climate change. In particular, green roofs can provide numerous environmental benefits, such as urban cooling, water retention, and carbon sequestration. The aim of this research is to develop a new module for calculating green roof CO2 fluxes within a model that can already simulate hydrological and thermal processes of such roofs. The calibration and evaluation of this module take advantage of long-term experimental data.
Tanguy Lunel, Maria Antonia Jimenez, Joan Cuxart, Daniel Martinez-Villagrasa, Aaron Boone, and Patrick Le Moigne
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 24, 7637–7666, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-24-7637-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-24-7637-2024, 2024
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During the summer in Catalonia, a cool wind, the marinada, blows into the eastern Ebro basin in the afternoon. This study investigates its previously unclear dynamics using observations and a meteorological model. It is found to be driven by a cool marine air mass that flows over the mountains into the basin. The study shows how the sea breeze, upslope winds, larger weather patterns and irrigation play a prominent role in the formation and characteristics of the marinada.
En Liu, Yonghua Zhu, Jean-Christophe Calvet, Haishen Lü, Bertrand Bonan, Jingyao Zheng, Qiqi Gou, Xiaoyi Wang, Zhenzhou Ding, Haiting Xu, Ying Pan, and Tingxing Chen
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 28, 2375–2400, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-2375-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-2375-2024, 2024
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Overestimated root zone soil moisture (RZSM) based on land surface models (LSMs) is attributed to overestimated precipitation and an underestimated ratio of transpiration to total evapotranspiration and performs better in the wet season. Underestimated SMOS L3 surface SM triggers the underestimated SMOS L4 RZSM, which performs better in the dry season due to the attenuated radiation in the wet season. LSMs should reduce and increase the frequency of wet and dry soil moisture, respectively.
Sophie Barthelemy, Bertrand Bonan, Jean-Christophe Calvet, Gilles Grandjean, David Moncoulon, Dorothée Kapsambelis, and Séverine Bernardie
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 999–1016, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-999-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-999-2024, 2024
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This work presents a drought index specifically adapted to subsidence, a seasonal phenomenon of soil shrinkage that occurs frequently in France and damages buildings. The index is computed from land surface model simulations and evaluated by a rank correlation test with insurance data. With its optimal configuration, the index is able to identify years of both zero and significant loss.
Jari-Pekka Nousu, Matthieu Lafaysse, Giulia Mazzotti, Pertti Ala-aho, Hannu Marttila, Bertrand Cluzet, Mika Aurela, Annalea Lohila, Pasi Kolari, Aaron Boone, Mathieu Fructus, and Samuli Launiainen
The Cryosphere, 18, 231–263, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-18-231-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-18-231-2024, 2024
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The snowpack has a major impact on the land surface energy budget. Accurate simulation of the snowpack energy budget is difficult, and studies that evaluate models against energy budget observations are rare. We compared predictions from well-known models with observations of energy budgets, snow depths and soil temperatures in Finland. Our study identified contrasting strengths and limitations for the models. These results can be used for choosing the right models depending on the use cases.
Antoine Sobaga, Bertrand Decharme, Florence Habets, Christine Delire, Noële Enjelvin, Paul-Olivier Redon, Pierre Faure-Catteloin, and Patrick Le Moigne
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 27, 2437–2461, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-27-2437-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-27-2437-2023, 2023
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Seven instrumented lysimeters are used to assess the simulation of the soil water dynamic in one land surface model. Four water potential and hydraulic conductivity closed-form equations, including one mixed form, are evaluated. One form is more relevant for simulating drainage, especially during intense drainage events. The soil profile heterogeneity of one parameter of the closed-form equations is shown to be important.
En Liu, Yonghua Zhu, Jean-christophe Calvet, Haishen Lü, Bertrand Bonan, Jingyao Zheng, Qiqi Gou, Xiaoyi Wang, Zhenzhou Ding, Haiting Xu, Ying Pan, and Tingxing Chen
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-2023-33, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-2023-33, 2023
Manuscript not accepted for further review
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Among the 8 considered products, GLDAS_CLSM product performs best. All RZSM products overestimate the in situ measurements which attributes to a wet bias of air temperature, precipitation amount and frequency except the underestimation of SMOS L4 RZSM related to the underestimation of SMOS L3 SSM. The higher R between SMPA L4 and MERRA-2 was attributed to they both use CLSM and meteorological forcing from GEOS-5 where precipitation was corrected with CPCU precipitation product.
Malak Sadki, Simon Munier, Aaron Boone, and Sophie Ricci
Geosci. Model Dev., 16, 427–448, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-16-427-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-16-427-2023, 2023
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Predicting water resource evolution is a key challenge for the coming century.
Anthropogenic impacts on water resources, and particularly the effects of dams and reservoirs on river flows, are still poorly known and generally neglected in global hydrological studies. A parameterized reservoir model is reproduced to compute monthly releases in Spanish anthropized river basins. For global application, an exhaustive sensitivity analysis of the model parameters is performed on flows and volumes.
Arsène Druel, Simon Munier, Anthony Mucia, Clément Albergel, and Jean-Christophe Calvet
Geosci. Model Dev., 15, 8453–8471, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-15-8453-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-15-8453-2022, 2022
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Crop phenology and irrigation is implemented into a land surface model able to work at a global scale. A case study is presented over Nebraska (USA). Simulations with and without the new scheme are compared to different satellite-based observations. The model is able to produce a realistic yearly irrigation water amount. The irrigation scheme improves the simulated leaf area index, gross primary productivity, evapotransipiration, and land surface temperature.
Jaime Gaona, Pere Quintana-Seguí, María José Escorihuela, Aaron Boone, and María Carmen Llasat
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 3461–3485, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-3461-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-3461-2022, 2022
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Droughts represent a particularly complex natural hazard and require explorations of their multiple causes. Part of the complexity has roots in the interaction between the continuous changes in and deviation from normal conditions of the atmosphere and the land surface. The exchange between the atmospheric and surface conditions defines feedback towards dry or wet conditions. In semi-arid environments, energy seems to exceed water in its impact over the evolution of conditions, favoring drought.
Patrick Le Moigne, Eric Bazile, Anning Cheng, Emanuel Dutra, John M. Edwards, William Maurel, Irina Sandu, Olivier Traullé, Etienne Vignon, Ayrton Zadra, and Weizhong Zheng
The Cryosphere, 16, 2183–2202, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-16-2183-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-16-2183-2022, 2022
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This paper describes an intercomparison of snow models, of varying complexity, used for numerical weather prediction or academic research. The results show that the simplest models are, under certain conditions, able to reproduce the surface temperature just as well as the most complex models. Moreover, the diversity of surface parameters of the models has a strong impact on the temporal variability of the components of the simulated surface energy balance.
Anthony Mucia, Bertrand Bonan, Clément Albergel, Yongjun Zheng, and Jean-Christophe Calvet
Biogeosciences, 19, 2557–2581, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-19-2557-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-19-2557-2022, 2022
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For the first time, microwave vegetation optical depth data are assimilated in a land surface model in order to analyze leaf area index and root zone soil moisture. The advantage of microwave products is the higher observation frequency. A large variety of independent datasets are used to verify the added value of the assimilation. It is shown that the assimilation is able to improve the representation of soil moisture, vegetation conditions, and terrestrial water and carbon fluxes.
Antoine Sobaga, Bertrand Decharme, Florence Habets, Christine Delire, Noële Enjelvin, Paul-Olivier Redon, Pierre Faure-Catteloin, and Patrick Le Moigne
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2022-274, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2022-274, 2022
Preprint archived
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Seven instrumented lysimeters are used to assess the simulation of the soil water dynamic in one land surface model. Three water potential and hydraulic conductivity closed-form equations including one mixed form are evaluated. The mixed form is more relevant to simulate drainage especially during intense drainage events. Soil profile heterogeneity of one parameter of the closed-form equations is shown to be important.
Wouter Dorigo, Irene Himmelbauer, Daniel Aberer, Lukas Schremmer, Ivana Petrakovic, Luca Zappa, Wolfgang Preimesberger, Angelika Xaver, Frank Annor, Jonas Ardö, Dennis Baldocchi, Marco Bitelli, Günter Blöschl, Heye Bogena, Luca Brocca, Jean-Christophe Calvet, J. Julio Camarero, Giorgio Capello, Minha Choi, Michael C. Cosh, Nick van de Giesen, Istvan Hajdu, Jaakko Ikonen, Karsten H. Jensen, Kasturi Devi Kanniah, Ileen de Kat, Gottfried Kirchengast, Pankaj Kumar Rai, Jenni Kyrouac, Kristine Larson, Suxia Liu, Alexander Loew, Mahta Moghaddam, José Martínez Fernández, Cristian Mattar Bader, Renato Morbidelli, Jan P. Musial, Elise Osenga, Michael A. Palecki, Thierry Pellarin, George P. Petropoulos, Isabella Pfeil, Jarrett Powers, Alan Robock, Christoph Rüdiger, Udo Rummel, Michael Strobel, Zhongbo Su, Ryan Sullivan, Torbern Tagesson, Andrej Varlagin, Mariette Vreugdenhil, Jeffrey Walker, Jun Wen, Fred Wenger, Jean Pierre Wigneron, Mel Woods, Kun Yang, Yijian Zeng, Xiang Zhang, Marek Zreda, Stephan Dietrich, Alexander Gruber, Peter van Oevelen, Wolfgang Wagner, Klaus Scipal, Matthias Drusch, and Roberto Sabia
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 25, 5749–5804, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-25-5749-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-25-5749-2021, 2021
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The International Soil Moisture Network (ISMN) is a community-based open-access data portal for soil water measurements taken at the ground and is accessible at https://ismn.earth. Over 1000 scientific publications and thousands of users have made use of the ISMN. The scope of this paper is to inform readers about the data and functionality of the ISMN and to provide a review of the scientific progress facilitated through the ISMN with the scope to shape future research and operations.
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Short summary
A drought index is developed that quantifies drought on an annual scale, making it applicable to monitoring clay shrinkage damage to buildings. A comparison with the number of insurance claims for subsidence shows that the presence of trees near individual houses must be taken into account. Significant soil moisture droughts occurred in France in 2003, 2018, 2019, 2020, and 2022. Particularly high index values are observed in 2022. It is found that droughts will become more severe in the future.
A drought index is developed that quantifies drought on an annual scale, making it applicable to...
