Articles | Volume 29, issue 11
https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-29-2321-2025
© Author(s) 2025. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-29-2321-2025
© Author(s) 2025. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
Research article
| 
03 Jun 2025
Research article |
| 03 Jun 2025
| 03 Jun 2025
Analysis of past and future droughts causing clay shrinkage in France
Sophie Barthelemy
CORRESPONDING AUTHOR
CNRM, Université de Toulouse, Météo-France, CNRS, Toulouse, France
Bureau de Recherches Géologiques et Minières (BRGM), Orléans, France
Department of R&D Modeling Cat and Agriculture, Caisse Centrale de Réassurance (CCR), Paris, France
Bertrand Bonan
CNRM, Université de Toulouse, Météo-France, CNRS, Toulouse, France
Miquel Tomas-Burguera
CNRM, Université de Toulouse, Météo-France, CNRS, Toulouse, France
now at: University of the Balearic Islands, Palma, Balearic Islands, Spain, and Natural Hazards and Emergencies Observatory of the Balearic Islands, Inca, Balearic Islands, Spain
Gilles Grandjean
Bureau de Recherches Géologiques et Minières (BRGM), Orléans, France
Séverine Bernardie
Bureau de Recherches Géologiques et Minières (BRGM), Orléans, France
Jean-Philippe Naulin
Department of R&D Modeling Cat and Agriculture, Caisse Centrale de Réassurance (CCR), Paris, France
Patrick Le Moigne
CNRM, Université de Toulouse, Météo-France, CNRS, Toulouse, France
Aaron Boone
CNRM, Université de Toulouse, Météo-France, CNRS, Toulouse, France
Jean-Christophe Calvet
CORRESPONDING AUTHOR
CNRM, Université de Toulouse, Météo-France, CNRS, Toulouse, France
Related authors
No articles found.
Yann Baehr, Pierre Vanderbecken, Bertrand Bonan, Catherine Robert, Mathieu Regimbeau, François Pimont, Kevyn Raynal, Xiangzhuo Liu, Remi Savazzi, Moncef Garouani, Josiane Mothe, Nemesio Rodriguez-Fernandez, Lionel Jarlan, and Jean-Christophe Calvet
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2026-1247, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2026-1247, 2026
This preprint is open for discussion and under review for Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences (NHESS).
Short summary
Short summary
This study produced vegetation water content maps to help manage the risk of forest fires in France. Artificial intelligence was used alongside land surface model outputs, satellite data and in situ observations to monitor vegetation stress in real time. The methodology tested has been shown to be robust and spatially consistent.
Oscar M. Baez-Villanueva, Alfredo Crespo-Otero, Sara Modanesi, Pierre Laluet, Sergio Vicente-Serrano, Jaap Schellekens, Jacopo Dari, Hylke E. Beck, Wouter Dorigo, Christian Massari, Chiara Corbari, Joppe Massant, Kwint Delbare, Olivier Bonte, Aaron Boone, Diego Fernández-Prieto, and Diego G. Miralles
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2026-1856, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2026-1856, 2026
This preprint is open for discussion and under review for Hydrology and Earth System Sciences (HESS).
Short summary
Short summary
We developed a new method to estimate daily land evaporation at high resolution across the Iberian Peninsula, explicitly accounting for irrigation. By combining satellite and meteorological data, we show that irrigation can strongly increase evaporation in agricultural areas. The results better match ground observations and improve understanding of water use. This approach can support farming decisions and water management at the regional scale, and will be extended to global applications.
Belén Martí, Jannis Groh, Guylaine Canut, and Aaron Boone
Geosci. Model Dev., 19, 1991–2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-19-1991-2026, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-19-1991-2026, 2026
Short summary
Short summary
The characterization of vegetation at two sites proved insufficient to adequately simulate the evapotranspiration. A dry surface layer was implemented in the land surface model SURFEX-ISBA (Externalized Surface-Interactions Soil-Biosphere-Atmosphere) v9.0. It is compared to simulations without a soil resistance. The application to an alfalfa site and a natural grass site in semiarid conditions results in an improvement in the estimation of the latent heat flux. The surface energy budget and the soil and vegetation characteristics are explored in detail.
Bertrand Decharme, Diane Tzanos, Lucas Hardouin, Aaron Boone, Marie Minvielle, Patrick Le Moigne, and Rémi Gaillard
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2026-860, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2026-860, 2026
This preprint is open for discussion and under review for Geoscientific Model Development (GMD).
Short summary
Short summary
We developed a new method to represent how organic matter in soils, together with a mineral soil compaction adjustment, influences the movement of water and heat in land models. We implemented this approach in a global model and performed long-term simulations driven by weather data and global soil maps. Compared with an older empirical method, it produces more consistent soil moisture, runoff, evaporation, and ground temperature and shows closer agreement with observations.
Jasmin Vural, Pierre Vanderbecken, Bertrand Bonan, Oscar Rojas-Munoz, and Jean-Christophe Calvet
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2026-838, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2026-838, 2026
Short summary
Short summary
New satellite observations are used to improve our understanding of agricultural land on a global scale. Innovative artificial intelligence methods are employed to combine the available information. This improvement is evaluated using independent observations and varies depending on the characteristics of instruments and models.
Pierre Vanderbecken, Jasmin Vural, Oscar Rojas-Munoz, Sébastien Garrigues, Bertrand Bonan, Cédric Bacour, Uwe Rascher, Bastian Siegmann, Patricia de Rosnay, and Jean-Christophe Calvet
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2026-941, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2026-941, 2026
Short summary
Short summary
New satellite observations are used to improve our understanding of regional-scale vegetation. Innovative artificial intelligence methods are employed to combine the available information. The effectiveness of this approach is evaluated using independent observations. The results show that agricultural practices such as irrigation can be modelled more accurately.
Lucie Armand, Guillaume Chambon, Olivier Cerdan, Yannick Thiery, Nathalie Marçot, Louis Ferradou, Nicolas Saby, and Séverine Bernardie
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2026-458, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2026-458, 2026
Short summary
Short summary
This research examines how extreme-rainfall-induced landslides affect predictive tools for shallow landslides. Focusing on Storm Alex (France), we compared predictions with and without Alex-induced landslides. Results show that Alex-induced landslides do not follow the same triggering conditions as those observed during more frequent rainfalls, leading to different rainfall thresholds and susceptibility maps. This highlights the importance of accounting for rare events when predicting landslide.
Oscar Rojas-Munoz, Constantin Ardilouze, Bertrand Bonan, Diane Tzanos, Darren Ghent, Céline Lamarche, Thomas Nagler, and Jean-Christophe Calvet
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2026-65, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2026-65, 2026
Short summary
Short summary
The impact of land cover representation on snow simulations within the ISBA land surface model in Europe between 2010 and 2022 is assessed. The ECMWF ERA5 atmospheric forcing dataset is used to conduct offline simulations with and without new land cover data. Using the new data reduces the ISBA snow water equivalent bias by around 33 %. These results highlight the importance of accurate land cover data for improving snow representation in land surface models.
Matthieu Lafaysse, Marie Dumont, Basile De Fleurian, Mathieu Fructus, Rafife Nheili, Léo Viallon-Galinier, Matthieu Baron, Aaron Boone, Axel Bouchet, Julien Brondex, Carlo Carmagnola, Bertrand Cluzet, Kévin Fourteau, Ange Haddjeri, Pascal Hagenmuller, Giulia Mazzotti, Marie Minvielle, Samuel Morin, Louis Quéno, Léon Roussel, Pierre Spandre, François Tuzet, and Vincent Vionnet
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-4540, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-4540, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
This article is a comprehensive description of the 3.0 stable release of the Crocus snowpack model. It describes various new implementations since the last reference article in 2012 and a review of the available scientific evaluations and applications of the model. This provides guidance for the future of numerical snow modelling.
Paul D. Hamer, Miha Markelj, Oscar Rojas-Munoz, Bertrand Bonan, Jean-Christophe Calvet, Virginie Marécal, Alex Guenther, Heidi Trimmel, Islen Vallejo, Sabine Eckhardt, Gabriela Sousa Santos, Katerina Sindelarova, David Simpson, Norbert Schmidbauer, and Leonor Tarrasón
Earth Syst. Sci. Data Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-2025-442, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-2025-442, 2025
Revised manuscript accepted for ESSD
Short summary
Short summary
Plants release gases like isoprene that can form ozone and affect air quality. Using models and satellite data, we mapped the emissions of isoprene from plants across Europe and found that droughts can reduce leaf growth, leading to lower emissions. This shows that to understand and predict air quality, we must also understand how drought impacts vegetation. Our findings highlight the value of linking extreme weather, plant health, and pollution in models of the Earth system as a whole.
Aurélien Mirebeau, Cécile de Munck, Bertrand Bonan, Christine Delire, Aude Lemonsu, Valéry Masson, and Stephan Weber
Geosci. Model Dev., 18, 5329–5349, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-5329-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-5329-2025, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
The greening of cities is recommended to limit the effects of climate change. In particular, green roofs can provide numerous environmental benefits, such as urban cooling, water retention, and carbon sequestration. The aim of this research is to develop a new module for calculating green roof CO2 fluxes within a model that can already simulate hydrological and thermal processes of such roofs. The calibration and evaluation of this module take advantage of long-term experimental data.
Tanguy Ronan Lunel, Belen Marti, Aaron Boone, and Patrick Le Moigne
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-3562, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-3562, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
Modelling evapotranspiration is essential for understanding the water cycle. While irrigation is known to increase evapotranspiration, it is less known that it also modifies local weather, which can in turn partially reduce evapotranspiration. This latter phenomenon is overlooked in some land surface model configurations. This study investigates and quantifies the impact of this oversight, showing that land surface models overestimate evapotranspiration by about 25% for crops in irrigated areas.
Tanguy Lunel, Maria Antonia Jimenez, Joan Cuxart, Daniel Martinez-Villagrasa, Aaron Boone, and Patrick Le Moigne
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 24, 7637–7666, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-24-7637-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-24-7637-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
During the summer in Catalonia, a cool wind, the marinada, blows into the eastern Ebro basin in the afternoon. This study investigates its previously unclear dynamics using observations and a meteorological model. It is found to be driven by a cool marine air mass that flows over the mountains into the basin. The study shows how the sea breeze, upslope winds, larger weather patterns and irrigation play a prominent role in the formation and characteristics of the marinada.
En Liu, Yonghua Zhu, Jean-Christophe Calvet, Haishen Lü, Bertrand Bonan, Jingyao Zheng, Qiqi Gou, Xiaoyi Wang, Zhenzhou Ding, Haiting Xu, Ying Pan, and Tingxing Chen
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 28, 2375–2400, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-2375-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-2375-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Overestimated root zone soil moisture (RZSM) based on land surface models (LSMs) is attributed to overestimated precipitation and an underestimated ratio of transpiration to total evapotranspiration and performs better in the wet season. Underestimated SMOS L3 surface SM triggers the underestimated SMOS L4 RZSM, which performs better in the dry season due to the attenuated radiation in the wet season. LSMs should reduce and increase the frequency of wet and dry soil moisture, respectively.
Sophie Barthelemy, Bertrand Bonan, Jean-Christophe Calvet, Gilles Grandjean, David Moncoulon, Dorothée Kapsambelis, and Séverine Bernardie
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 999–1016, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-999-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-999-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
This work presents a drought index specifically adapted to subsidence, a seasonal phenomenon of soil shrinkage that occurs frequently in France and damages buildings. The index is computed from land surface model simulations and evaluated by a rank correlation test with insurance data. With its optimal configuration, the index is able to identify years of both zero and significant loss.
Jari-Pekka Nousu, Matthieu Lafaysse, Giulia Mazzotti, Pertti Ala-aho, Hannu Marttila, Bertrand Cluzet, Mika Aurela, Annalea Lohila, Pasi Kolari, Aaron Boone, Mathieu Fructus, and Samuli Launiainen
The Cryosphere, 18, 231–263, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-18-231-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-18-231-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
The snowpack has a major impact on the land surface energy budget. Accurate simulation of the snowpack energy budget is difficult, and studies that evaluate models against energy budget observations are rare. We compared predictions from well-known models with observations of energy budgets, snow depths and soil temperatures in Finland. Our study identified contrasting strengths and limitations for the models. These results can be used for choosing the right models depending on the use cases.
Antoine Sobaga, Bertrand Decharme, Florence Habets, Christine Delire, Noële Enjelvin, Paul-Olivier Redon, Pierre Faure-Catteloin, and Patrick Le Moigne
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 27, 2437–2461, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-27-2437-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-27-2437-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
Seven instrumented lysimeters are used to assess the simulation of the soil water dynamic in one land surface model. Four water potential and hydraulic conductivity closed-form equations, including one mixed form, are evaluated. One form is more relevant for simulating drainage, especially during intense drainage events. The soil profile heterogeneity of one parameter of the closed-form equations is shown to be important.
En Liu, Yonghua Zhu, Jean-christophe Calvet, Haishen Lü, Bertrand Bonan, Jingyao Zheng, Qiqi Gou, Xiaoyi Wang, Zhenzhou Ding, Haiting Xu, Ying Pan, and Tingxing Chen
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-2023-33, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-2023-33, 2023
Manuscript not accepted for further review
Short summary
Short summary
Among the 8 considered products, GLDAS_CLSM product performs best. All RZSM products overestimate the in situ measurements which attributes to a wet bias of air temperature, precipitation amount and frequency except the underestimation of SMOS L4 RZSM related to the underestimation of SMOS L3 SSM. The higher R between SMPA L4 and MERRA-2 was attributed to they both use CLSM and meteorological forcing from GEOS-5 where precipitation was corrected with CPCU precipitation product.
Malak Sadki, Simon Munier, Aaron Boone, and Sophie Ricci
Geosci. Model Dev., 16, 427–448, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-16-427-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-16-427-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
Predicting water resource evolution is a key challenge for the coming century.
Anthropogenic impacts on water resources, and particularly the effects of dams and reservoirs on river flows, are still poorly known and generally neglected in global hydrological studies. A parameterized reservoir model is reproduced to compute monthly releases in Spanish anthropized river basins. For global application, an exhaustive sensitivity analysis of the model parameters is performed on flows and volumes.
Arsène Druel, Simon Munier, Anthony Mucia, Clément Albergel, and Jean-Christophe Calvet
Geosci. Model Dev., 15, 8453–8471, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-15-8453-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-15-8453-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
Crop phenology and irrigation is implemented into a land surface model able to work at a global scale. A case study is presented over Nebraska (USA). Simulations with and without the new scheme are compared to different satellite-based observations. The model is able to produce a realistic yearly irrigation water amount. The irrigation scheme improves the simulated leaf area index, gross primary productivity, evapotransipiration, and land surface temperature.
Jaime Gaona, Pere Quintana-Seguí, María José Escorihuela, Aaron Boone, and María Carmen Llasat
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 3461–3485, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-3461-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-3461-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
Droughts represent a particularly complex natural hazard and require explorations of their multiple causes. Part of the complexity has roots in the interaction between the continuous changes in and deviation from normal conditions of the atmosphere and the land surface. The exchange between the atmospheric and surface conditions defines feedback towards dry or wet conditions. In semi-arid environments, energy seems to exceed water in its impact over the evolution of conditions, favoring drought.
Patrick Le Moigne, Eric Bazile, Anning Cheng, Emanuel Dutra, John M. Edwards, William Maurel, Irina Sandu, Olivier Traullé, Etienne Vignon, Ayrton Zadra, and Weizhong Zheng
The Cryosphere, 16, 2183–2202, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-16-2183-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-16-2183-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
This paper describes an intercomparison of snow models, of varying complexity, used for numerical weather prediction or academic research. The results show that the simplest models are, under certain conditions, able to reproduce the surface temperature just as well as the most complex models. Moreover, the diversity of surface parameters of the models has a strong impact on the temporal variability of the components of the simulated surface energy balance.
Anthony Mucia, Bertrand Bonan, Clément Albergel, Yongjun Zheng, and Jean-Christophe Calvet
Biogeosciences, 19, 2557–2581, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-19-2557-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-19-2557-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
For the first time, microwave vegetation optical depth data are assimilated in a land surface model in order to analyze leaf area index and root zone soil moisture. The advantage of microwave products is the higher observation frequency. A large variety of independent datasets are used to verify the added value of the assimilation. It is shown that the assimilation is able to improve the representation of soil moisture, vegetation conditions, and terrestrial water and carbon fluxes.
Antoine Sobaga, Bertrand Decharme, Florence Habets, Christine Delire, Noële Enjelvin, Paul-Olivier Redon, Pierre Faure-Catteloin, and Patrick Le Moigne
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2022-274, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2022-274, 2022
Preprint archived
Short summary
Short summary
Seven instrumented lysimeters are used to assess the simulation of the soil water dynamic in one land surface model. Three water potential and hydraulic conductivity closed-form equations including one mixed form are evaluated. The mixed form is more relevant to simulate drainage especially during intense drainage events. Soil profile heterogeneity of one parameter of the closed-form equations is shown to be important.
Wouter Dorigo, Irene Himmelbauer, Daniel Aberer, Lukas Schremmer, Ivana Petrakovic, Luca Zappa, Wolfgang Preimesberger, Angelika Xaver, Frank Annor, Jonas Ardö, Dennis Baldocchi, Marco Bitelli, Günter Blöschl, Heye Bogena, Luca Brocca, Jean-Christophe Calvet, J. Julio Camarero, Giorgio Capello, Minha Choi, Michael C. Cosh, Nick van de Giesen, Istvan Hajdu, Jaakko Ikonen, Karsten H. Jensen, Kasturi Devi Kanniah, Ileen de Kat, Gottfried Kirchengast, Pankaj Kumar Rai, Jenni Kyrouac, Kristine Larson, Suxia Liu, Alexander Loew, Mahta Moghaddam, José Martínez Fernández, Cristian Mattar Bader, Renato Morbidelli, Jan P. Musial, Elise Osenga, Michael A. Palecki, Thierry Pellarin, George P. Petropoulos, Isabella Pfeil, Jarrett Powers, Alan Robock, Christoph Rüdiger, Udo Rummel, Michael Strobel, Zhongbo Su, Ryan Sullivan, Torbern Tagesson, Andrej Varlagin, Mariette Vreugdenhil, Jeffrey Walker, Jun Wen, Fred Wenger, Jean Pierre Wigneron, Mel Woods, Kun Yang, Yijian Zeng, Xiang Zhang, Marek Zreda, Stephan Dietrich, Alexander Gruber, Peter van Oevelen, Wolfgang Wagner, Klaus Scipal, Matthias Drusch, and Roberto Sabia
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 25, 5749–5804, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-25-5749-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-25-5749-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
The International Soil Moisture Network (ISMN) is a community-based open-access data portal for soil water measurements taken at the ground and is accessible at https://ismn.earth. Over 1000 scientific publications and thousands of users have made use of the ISMN. The scope of this paper is to inform readers about the data and functionality of the ISMN and to provide a review of the scientific progress facilitated through the ISMN with the scope to shape future research and operations.
Yongkang Xue, Tandong Yao, Aaron A. Boone, Ismaila Diallo, Ye Liu, Xubin Zeng, William K. M. Lau, Shiori Sugimoto, Qi Tang, Xiaoduo Pan, Peter J. van Oevelen, Daniel Klocke, Myung-Seo Koo, Tomonori Sato, Zhaohui Lin, Yuhei Takaya, Constantin Ardilouze, Stefano Materia, Subodh K. Saha, Retish Senan, Tetsu Nakamura, Hailan Wang, Jing Yang, Hongliang Zhang, Mei Zhao, Xin-Zhong Liang, J. David Neelin, Frederic Vitart, Xin Li, Ping Zhao, Chunxiang Shi, Weidong Guo, Jianping Tang, Miao Yu, Yun Qian, Samuel S. P. Shen, Yang Zhang, Kun Yang, Ruby Leung, Yuan Qiu, Daniele Peano, Xin Qi, Yanling Zhan, Michael A. Brunke, Sin Chan Chou, Michael Ek, Tianyi Fan, Hong Guan, Hai Lin, Shunlin Liang, Helin Wei, Shaocheng Xie, Haoran Xu, Weiping Li, Xueli Shi, Paulo Nobre, Yan Pan, Yi Qin, Jeff Dozier, Craig R. Ferguson, Gianpaolo Balsamo, Qing Bao, Jinming Feng, Jinkyu Hong, Songyou Hong, Huilin Huang, Duoying Ji, Zhenming Ji, Shichang Kang, Yanluan Lin, Weiguang Liu, Ryan Muncaster, Patricia de Rosnay, Hiroshi G. Takahashi, Guiling Wang, Shuyu Wang, Weicai Wang, Xu Zhou, and Yuejian Zhu
Geosci. Model Dev., 14, 4465–4494, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-14-4465-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-14-4465-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
The subseasonal prediction of extreme hydroclimate events such as droughts/floods has remained stubbornly low for years. This paper presents a new international initiative which, for the first time, introduces spring land surface temperature anomalies over high mountains to improve precipitation prediction through remote effects of land–atmosphere interactions. More than 40 institutions worldwide are participating in this effort. The experimental protocol and preliminary results are presented.
Cited articles
Al-Atroush, M. E., Shabbir, O., Almeshari, B., Waly, M., and Sebaey, T. A.: A Novel Application of the Hydrophobic Polyurethane Foam: Expansive Soil Stabilization, Polymers, 13, 1335, https://doi.org/10.3390/polym13081335, 2021.
André, G. and Marteau, R.: Changement climatique et Assurance: Quelles conséquences sur la sinistralité à horizon 2050?, Livre Blanc Covéa, https://www.covea.com/sites/default/files/2023-11/202202_Livre_Blanc_Covéa_Risques_Climatiques.pdf (last access: 26 May 2025), 2022.
Barbosa, P., Masante, D., Arias Muños, C., Cammalleri, C., de Jager, A., Magni, D., Mazzeschi, M., McCormick, N., Naumann, G., Spinoni, J., and Vogt, J.: Drought in Europe September 2020, Publications Office of the European Union, https://doi.org/10.2760/415204 (last access 26 May 2025), 2020.
Barthelemy, S.: Analyzing past and future droughts that induce clay shrinkage in France using an index based on water budget simulation for trees – article data, Figshare [data set], https://figshare.com/s/61c73ec14ed0b876641e (last access: 26 May 2025), 2025.
Barthelemy, S., Bonan, B., Calvet, J.-C., Grandjean, G., Moncoulon, D., Kapsambelis, D., and Bernardie, S.: A new approach for drought index adjustment to clay-shrinkage-induced subsidence over France: advantages of the interactive leaf area index, Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 999–1016, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-999-2024, 2024.
Berg, A. and Sheffield, J.: Climate Change and Drought: the Soil Moisture Perspective, Curr. Clim. Change Rep., 4, 180–191, https://doi.org/10.1007/s40641-018-0095-0, 2018.
Boone, A., Masson, V., Meyers, T., and Noilhan, J.: The Influence of the Inclusion of Soil Freezing on Simulations by a Soil–Vegetation–Atmosphere Transfer Scheme, J. Appl. Meteorol., 39, 1544–1569, https://doi.org/10.1175/1520-0450(2000)039<1544:TIOTIO>2.0.CO;2, 2000.
Brut, A., Rüdiger, C., Lafont, S., Roujean, J. L., Calvet, J. C., Jarlan, L., Gibelin, A. L., Albergel, C., Le Moigne, P., Soussana, J. F., Klumpp, K., Guyon, D., Wigneron, J. P., and Ceschia, E.: Modelling LAI at a regional scale with ISBA-A-gs: Comparison with satellite-derived LAI over southwestern France, Biogeosciences, 6, 1389–1404, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-6-1389-2009, 2009.
Calvet, J.-C.: Investigating soil and atmospheric plant water stress using physiological and micrometeorological data, Agr. Forest Meteorol., 103, 229–247, https://doi.org/10.1016/S0168-1923(00)00130-1, 2000.
Calvet, J.-C. and Soussana, J.-F.: Modelling CO2-enrichment effects using an interactive vegetation SVAT scheme, Agr. Forest Meteorol., 108, 129–152, https://doi.org/10.1016/S0168-1923(01)00235-0, 2001.
Calvet, J.-C., Noilhan, J., Roujean, J.-L., Bessemoulin, P., Cabelguenne, M., Olioso, A., and Wigneron, J.-P.: An interactive vegetation SVAT model tested against data from six contrasting sites, Agr. Forest Meteorol., 92, 73–95, https://doi.org/10.1016/S0168-1923(98)00091-4, 1998.
Calvet, J.-C., Rivalland, V., Picon-Cochard, C., and Guehl, J.-M.: Modelling forest transpiration and CO2 fluxes – response to soil moisture stress, Agr. Forest Meteorol., 124, 143–156, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.agrformet.2004.01.007, 2004.
Calvet, J.-C., Canut-Rocafort, G., Bonan, B., Meurey, C., Corchia, T., and Etienne, J.-C.: Year-round daily Meteopole-Flux weather, energy, carbon and soil-plant variables, Toulouse, CNRM [data set], https://doi.org/10.57932/5223fd82-10ce-490c-a4b0-1106b5511554, 2024.
Campbell, G. S.: A simple method for determining unsaturated conductivity from moisture retention data, Soil Sci., 117, 311–314, https://doi.org/10.1097/00010694-197406000-00001, 1974.
CCR: Conséquences du changement climatique sur le coût des catastrophes naturelles en France à horizon 2050, https://www.ccr.fr/documents/35794/1255983/CCR+Etude+climat+BAG+23102023+page+22mo.pdf/68b95f6e-8238-4dcc-6c56-025fa410257b?t=1698161402128 (last access: 27 February 2024), 2023a.
CCR: Les Catastrophes Naturelles en France Bilan 1982–2022, https://catastrophes-naturelles.ccr.fr/documents/148935/368920/BILAN+Cat+Nat+2022_HD_12062023.pdf/5b5397f0-2118-2252-608f-76ece6e195a1?t=1686731142230 (last access: 27 February 2024), 2023b.
Clapp, R. B. and Hornberger, G. M.: Empirical equations for some soil hydraulic properties, Water Resour. Res., 14, 601–604, https://doi.org/10.1029/WR014i004p00601, 1978.
CNRM: SURFEX code, CNRM [code], http://www.umr-cnrm.fr/surfex/data/OPEN-SURFEX/open_surfex_v8_1_20210914.tar.gz (last access: 26 May 2025), 2016.
Dayon, G., Boé, J., Martin, É., and Gailhard, J.: Impacts of climate change on the hydrological cycle over France and associated uncertainties, Comptes. Rendus.-Geosci., 350, 141–153, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.crte.2018.03.001, 2018.
Collier, N., Hoffman, F. M., Lawrence, D. M., Keppel-Aleks, G., Koven, C. D., Riley, W. J., Mu, M., and Randerson, J. T.: The International Land Model Benchmarking (ILAMB) System: Design, Theory, and Implementation, J. Adv. Model. Earth Sy., 10, 2731–2754, https://doi.org/10.1029/2018MS001354, 2018.
Decharme, B., Boone, A., Delire, C., and Noilhan, J.: Local evaluation of the Interaction between Soil Biosphere Atmosphere soil multilayer diffusion scheme using four pedotransfer functions, J. Geophys. Res.-Atmos., 116, 1–29, https://doi.org/10.1029/2011JD016002, 2011.
Delire, C., Séférian R., Decharme B., Alkama R., Calvet J.-C., Carrer D., Gibelin A.-L., Joetzjer E., Morel X., Rocher M., and Tzanos D.: The global land carbon cycle simulated with ISBA-CTRIP: improvements over the last decade, J. Adv. Model. Earth Sy., 12, e2019MS001886, https://doi.org/10.1029/2019MS001886, 2020.
Explore2 – des futurs de l'eau: https://professionnels.ofb.fr/fr/node/1244, last access: 27 February 2024.
Faroux, S., Kaptué Tchuenté, A. T., Roujean, J.-L., Masson, V., Martin, E., and Le Moigne, P.: ECOCLIMAP-II/Europe: a twofold database of ecosystems and surface parameters at 1 km resolution based on satellite information for use in land surface, meteorological and climate models, Geosci. Model Dev., 6, 563–582, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-6-563-2013, 2013.
Freeman, T. J., Burford, D., and Crilly, M. S.: Seasonal foundation movements in London Clay, in: Proceedings of the 4th International Conference on Ground Movements and Structures, Cardiff, UK, 8–11 July 1991, 485–501, 1992.
Georisques: Dossier expert sur le retrait-gonflement des argiles – Exposition du territoire au phénomène, https://www.georisques.gouv.fr/articles-risques/retrait-gonflement-des-argiles/exposition-du-territoire-au-phenomene (last access: 2 April 2024), 2019.
Gibelin, A. L., Calvet, J. C., Roujean, J. L., Jarlan, L., and Los, S. O.: Ability of the land surface model ISBA-A-gs to simulate leaf area index at the global scale: Comparison with satellites products, J. Geophys. Res.-Atmos, 111, D18102, https://doi.org/10.1029/2005JD006691, 2006.
Gourdier, S. and Plat, E.: Impact du changement climatique sur la sinistralité due au retrait-gonflement des argiles. Journées Nationales de Géotechnique et Géologie de l'Ingénieur (JNGG), Champs-sur-Marne, France, https://brgm.hal.science/hal-01768395/ (last access: 27 February 2024), 2018.
Gudmundsson, L. and Seneviratne, S. I.: European drought trends, Proc. IAHS, 369, 75–79, https://doi.org/10.5194/piahs-369-75-2015, 2015.
Habets, F., Boone, A., Champeaux, J. L., Etchevers, P., Franchistéguy, L., Leblois, E., Ledoux, E., Le Moigne, P., Martin, E., Morel, S., Noilhan, J., Seguí, P. Q., Rousset-Regimbeau, F., and Viennot, P.: The SAFRAN-ISBA-MODCOU hydrometeorological model applied over France, J. Geophys. Res.-Atmos., 113, 1–18, https://doi.org/10.1029/2007JD00854, 2008.
Hansen, J., Kharecha, P., Sato, M., Masson-Delmotte, V., Ackerman, F., Beerling, D. J., Hearty, P. J., Hoegh-Guldberg, O., Hsu, S.-L., and Parmesan, C.: Assessing “dangerous climate change”: required reduction of carbon emissions to protect young people, future generations and nature, PLoS ONE, 8, e81648, https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0081648, 2013.
Hari, V., Rakovec, O., Markonis, Y., Hanel, M., and Kumar, R.: Increased future occurrences of the exceptional 2018–2019 Central European drought under global warming, Sci. Rep., 10, 12207, https://doi.org/10.1038/s41598-020-68872-9, 2020.
Hawkins, A. B.: Some engineering geological effects of drought: Examples from the UK, Bull. Eng. Geol. Environ., 72, 37–59, https://doi.org/10.1007/s10064-013-0458-7, 2013.
Ighil Ameur, L.: Experimental Analysis of Shrinkage-swelling Phenomenon of Clays Application to an Individual House Affected by Drought Under Climate Change Effects, ASCE EMI/PMC, https://www.researchgate.net/publication/356284599 (last access: 27 February 2024), 2021.
ISRIC: SoilGrids – global gridded soil information, https://www.isric.org/explore/soilgrids (last access: 2 April 2024), 2020.
Jacob, D., Petersen, J., Eggert, B., Alias, A., Christensen, O. B., Bouwer, L. M., Braun, A., Colette, A., Déqué, M., Georgievski, G., Georgopoulou, E., Gobiet, A., Menut, L., Nikulin, G., Haensler, A., Hempelmann, N., Jones, C., Keuler, K., Kovats, S., Kröner, N., Kotlarski, S., Kriegsmann, A., Martin, E., van Meijgaard, E., Moseley, C., Pfeifer, S., Preuschmann, S., Radermacher, C., Radtke, K., Rechid, D., Rounsevell, M., Samuelsson, P., Somot, S., Soussana, J.-F., Teichmann, C., Valentini, R., Vautard, R., Weber, B., and Yiou, P.: EURO-CORDEX: new high-resolution climate change projections for European impact research, Reg. Environ. Change, 14, 563–578, https://doi.org/10.1007/s10113-013-0499-2, 2014.
Jacob, D., Teichmann, C., Sobolowski, S., Katragkou, E., Anders, I., Belda, M., Benestad, R., Boberg, F., Buonomo, E., Cardoso, R. M., Casanueva, A., Christensen, O. B., Christensen, J. H., Coppola, E., De Cruz, L., Davin, E. L., Dobler, A., Domínguez, M., Fealy, R., Fernandez, J., Gaertner, M. A., García-Díez, M., Giorgi, F., Gobiet, A., Goergen, K., Gómez-Navarro, J. J., Alemán, J. J. G., Gutiérrez, C., Gutiérrez, J. M., Güttler, I., Haensler, A., Halenka, T., Jerez, S., Jiménez-Guerrero, P., Jones, R. G., Keuler, K., Kjellström, E., Knist, S., Kotlarski, S., Maraun, D., van Meijgaard, E., Mercogliano, P., Montávez, J. P., Navarra, A., Nikulin, G., de Noblet-Ducoudré, N., Panitz, H.-J., Pfeifer, S., Piazza, M., Pichelli, E., Pietikäinen, J.-P., Prein, A. F., Preuschmann, S., Rechid, D., Rockel, B., Romera, R., Sánchez, E., Sieck, K., Soares, P. M. M., Somot, S., Srnec, L., Sørland, S. L., Termonia, P., Truhetz, H., Vautard, R., Warrach-Sagi, K., and Wulfmeyer, V.: Regional climate downscaling over Europe: perspectives from the EURO-CORDEX community, Reg. Environ. Change, 20, 51, https://doi.org/10.1007/s10113-020-01606-9, 2020.
Kotlarski, S., Keuler, K., Christensen, O. B., Colette, A., Déqué, M., Gobiet, A., Goergen, K., Jacob, D., Lüthi, D., van Meijgaard, E., Nikulin, G., Schär, C., Teichmann, C., Vautard, R., Warrach-Sagi, K., and Wulfmeyer, V.: Regional climate modeling on European scales: a joint standard evaluation of the EURO-CORDEX RCM ensemble, Geosci. Model Dev., 7, 1297–1333, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-7-1297-2014, 2014.
Laanaia, N., Carrer, D., Calvet, J.-C., and Pagé, C.: How will climate change affect the vegetation cycle over France? A generic modeling approach, Clim. Risk Manag., 13, 31–42, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.crm.2016.06.001, 2016.
Lashof, D. A. and Ahuja, D. R.: Relative contributions of greenhouse gas emissions to global warming, Nature, 344, 529–531, https://doi.org/10.1038/344529a0, 1990.
Le Moigne, P., Besson, F., Martin, E., Boé, J., Boone, A., Decharme, B., Etchevers, P., Faroux, S., Habets, F., Lafaysse, M., Leroux, D., and Rousset-Regimbeau, F.: The latest improvements with SURFEX v8.0 of the Safran-Isba-Modcou hydrometeorological model for France, Geosci. Model Dev., 13, 3925–3946, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-13-3925-2020, 2020.
Légifrance: Loi no. 2018-1021 du 23 novembre 2018 portant évolution du logement, de l'aménagement et du numérique, 2018–1021, https://www.legifrance.gouv.fr/loda/id/JORFTEXT000037639478 (last access: 2 April 2024), 2018.
Manning, C., Widmann, M., Bevacqua, E., Van Loon, A. F., Maraun, D., and Vrac, M.: Increased probability of compound long-duration dry and hot events in Europe during summer (1950–2013), Environ. Res. Lett., 14, 094006, https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/ab23bf, 2019.
Masante, D., Vogt, J., Cammalleri, C., Spinoni, J., and Barbosa, P.: Drought in Central-Northern Europe – September 2018, Publications Office of the European Union, https://drought.emergency.copernicus.eu/data/reports/old/EDODroughtNews201809_Central_North_Europe.pdf (last access: 26 May 2025) 2018.
Masante, D., Barbosa, P., and Magni, D.: Drought in Europe August 2019, Publications Office of the European Union, https://drought.emergency.copernicus.eu/data/reports/old/EDODroughtNews201908_Europe.pdf (last access: 26 May 2025) 2019.
Masson, V., Le Moigne, P., Martin, E., Faroux, S., Alias, A., Alkama, R., Belamari, S., Barbu, A., Boone, A., Bouyssel, F., Brousseau, P., Brun, E., Calvet, J. C., Carrer, D., Decharme, B., Delire, C., Donier, S., Essaouini, K., Gibelin, A. L., Giordani, H., Habets, F., Jidane, M., Kerdraon, G., Kourzeneva, E., Lafaysse, M., Lafont, S., Lebeaupin Brossier, C., Lemonsu, A., Mahfouf, J. F., Marguinaud, P., Mokhtari, M., Morin, S., Pigeon, G., Salgado, R., Seity, Y., Taillefer, F., Tanguy, G., Tulet, P., Vincendon, B., Vionnet, V., and Voldoire, A.: The SURFEXv7.2 land and ocean surface platform for coupled or offline simulation of earth surface variables and fluxes, Geosci. Model Dev., 6, 929–960, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-6-929-2013, 2013.
Meisina, C., Zucca, F., Fossati, D., Ceriani, M., and Allievi, J.: Ground deformation monitoring by using the Permanent Scatterers Technique: The example of the Oltrepo Pavese (Lombardia, Italy), Eng. Geol., 88, 240–259, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.enggeo.2006.09.010, 2006.
Micale, F., Vogt, J., and Cammalleri, C.: European Drought Observatory (EDO) Drought News August 2015, Publications Office of the European Union, https://drought.emergency.copernicus.eu/data/reports/old/EDODroughtNews201508.pdf (last access: 25 May 2025) 2015.
Moss, R. H., Edmonds, J. A., Hibbard, K. A., Manning, M. R., Rose, S. K., van Vuuren, D. P., Carter, T. R., Emori, S., Kainuma, M., Kram, T., Meehl, G. A., Mitchell, J. F. B., Nakicenovic, N., Riahi, K., Smith, S. J., Stouffer, R. J., Thomson, A. M., Weyant, J. P., and Wilbanks, T. J.: The next generation of scenarios for climate change research and assessment, Nature, 463, 747–756, https://doi.org/10.1038/nature08823, 2010.
Mostafiz, R. B., Friedland, C. J., Rohli, R. V., Bushra, N., and Held, C. L.: Property Risk Assessment for Expansive Soils in Louisiana, Front. Built Environ., 7, 1–10, https://doi.org/10.3389/fbuil.2021.754761, 2021.
MTES: Cartographie de l'exposition des maisons individuelles au retrait-gonflement des argiles, https://www.statistiques.developpement-durable.gouv.fr/ (last access: 27 February 2024), 2021.
Nachtergaele, F., Velthuizen, H., Verelst, L., and Wiberg, D.: Harmonized World Soil Database Version 1.2, https://esdac.jrc.ec.europa.eu/ (last access: 27 February 2024), 2012.
Noilhan, J. and Lacarrère, P.: GCM Grid-Scale Evaporation from Mesoscale Modeling, J. Clim., 8, 206–223, https://doi.org/10.1175/1520-0442(1995)008<0206:GGSEFM>2.0.CO;2, 1995.
Noilhan, J. and Mahfouf, J.-F.: The ISBA land surface parameterisation scheme, Global Planet. Change, 13, 145–159, https://doi.org/10.1016/0921-8181(95)00043-7, 1996.
Noilhan, J. and Planton, S.: A simple parameterization of land surface processes for meteorological models, Mon. Weather Rev., 117, 536–549, 1989.
Olive, W. W., Chleborad, A. F., Frahme, C. W., Schlocker, J., Schneider, R. R., and Schuster, R. L.: Swelling clays map of the conterminous United States, https://doi.org/10.3133/i1940, 1989.
Page, R. C. J.: Reducing the cost of subsidence damage despite global warming, Struct. Surv., 16, 67–75, https://doi.org/10.1108/02630809810219641, 1998.
Peano, D., Hemming, D., Materia, S., Delire, C., Fan, Y., Joetzjer, E., Lee, H., Nabel, J. E. M. S., Park, T., Peylin, P., Wårlind, D., Wiltshire, A., and Zaehle, S.: Plant phenology evaluation of CRESCENDO land surface models – Part 1: Start and end of the growing season, Biogeosciences, 18, 2405–2428, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-18-2405-2021, 2021.
Ribes, A., Boé, J., Qasmi, S., Dubuisson, B., Douville, H., and Terray, L.: An updated assessment of past and future warming over France based on a regional observational constraint, Earth Syst. Dynam., 13, 1397–1415, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-13-1397-2022, 2022.
Ribes, A., Qasmi S., and Gillett N. P.: Making climate projections conditional on historical observations, Sci. Adv., 7, eabc0671, https://doi.org/10.1126/sciadv.abc0671, 2021.
Richards, L. A.: Capillary conduction of liquids through porous mediums, Physics, 1, 318–333, https://doi.org/10.1063/1.1745010, 1931.
Robin, Y., Corre, L., Marson, P., Bernus, S., Vrac, M., and Thao, S.: Projections climatiques régionalisées: correction de biais et changements futurs, https://doi.org/10.57745/KXRB5B (last access: 26 May 2025), 2023.
Quintana-Seguí, P., Le Moigne, P., Durand, Y., Martin, E., Habets, F., Baillon, M., Canellas, C., Franchisteguy, L., and Morel, S.: Analysis of near-surface atmospheric variables: Validation of the SAFRAN analysis over France, J. Appl. Meteorol. Climatol., 47, 92–107, https://doi.org/10.1175/2007JAMC1636.1, 2008.
Samaniego, L., Thober, S., Kumar, R., Wanders, N., Rakovec, O., Pan, M., Zink, M., Sheffield, J., Wood, E. F., and Marx, A.: Anthropogenic warming exacerbates European soil moisture droughts, Nat. Clim. Change, 8, 421–426, https://doi.org/10.1038/s41558-018-0138-5, 2018.
Sobaga, A., Decharme, B., Habets, F., Delire, C., Enjelvin, N., Redon, P.-O., Faure-Catteloin, P., and Le Moigne, P.: Assessment of the interactions between soil–biosphere–atmosphere (ISBA) land surface model soil hydrology, using four closed-form soil water relationships and several lysimeters, Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 27, 2437–2461, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-27-2437-2023, 2023.
Solomon, S., Plattner, G.-K., Knutti, R., and Friedlingstein, P.: Irreversible climate change due to carbon dioxide emissions, P. Natl. Acad. Sci. USA, 106, 1704–1709, https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.0812721106, 2009.
Soubeyroux, M., Grigis, L., Rousset, F., Corre, L., and Boe, J.: Evolution des sécheresses météorologiques et agricoles en France en contexte de changement climatique, 36th Conference of the International Association of Climatology, https://drive.google.com/file/d/1Fw18eT6FZz756wwla0vh5Rhxy6XwpNYt/view (last access: 27 February 2024), 2023.
Soubeyroux, J.-M., Vidal, J.-P., Najac, J., Kitova, N., Blanchard, M., Dandin, P., Martin, E., Pagé, C., and Habets, F.: Projet ClimSec : Impact du changement climatique en France sur la sécheresse et l'eau du sol, Rapport final du projet, https://www.drias-climat.fr/public/shared/rapport_final_CLIMSEC.pdf (last access: 26 May 2025), 2011.
Spinoni, J., Vogt, J. V., Naumann, G., Barbosa, P., and Dosio, A.: Will drought events become more frequent and severe in Europe?, Int. J. Climatol., 38, 1718–1736, https://doi.org/10.1002/joc.5291, 2018.
Szczypta, C., Calvet, J. C., Maignan, F., Dorigo, W., Baret, F., and Ciais, P.: Suitability of modelled and remotely sensed essential climate variables for monitoring Euro-Mediterranean droughts, Geosci. Model Dev., 7, 931–946, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-7-931-2014, 2014.
Toreti, A., Bavera, D., Acosta Navarro, J., Cammalleri, C., de Jager, A., Di Ciollo, C. I., Hrast Essenfelder, A., Maetens, W., Masante, D., Magni, D., Mazzeschi, M., and Spinoni, J.: Drought in Europe – August 2022, JRC Global Drought Observatory, https://doi.org/10.2760/264241, 2022.
Tzampoglou, P., Loukidis, D., and Koulermou, N.: Seasonal Ground Movement Due to Swelling/Shrinkage of Nicosia Marl, Remote Sens., 14, 1440, https://doi.org/10.3390/rs14061440, 2022.
Vautard, R., Cattiaux, J., Happé, T., Singh, J., Bonnet, R., Cassou, C., Coumou, D., D'Andrea, F., Faranda, D., Fischer, E., Ribes, A., Sippel, S., and Yiou, P.: Heat extremes in Western Europe increasing faster than simulated due to atmospheric circulation trends, Nat. Commun., 14, 6803, https://doi.org/10.1038/s41467-023-42143-3, 2023.
Verfaillie, D., Déqué, M., Morin, S., and Lafaysse, M.: The method ADAMONT v1.0 for statistical adjustment of climate projections applicable to energy balance land surface models, Geosci. Model Dev., 10, 4257–4283, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-10-4257-2017, 2017.
Vidal, J.-P., Martin, E., Franchistéguy, L., Baillon, M., and Soubeyroux, J.-M.: A 50-year high-resolution atmospheric reanalysis over France with the Safran system, Int. J. Climatol., 30, 1627–1644, https://doi.org/10.1002/joc.2003, 2010.
Vidal, J.-P., Martin, E., Kitova, N., Najac, J., and Soubeyroux, J.-M.: Evolution of spatio-temporal drought characteristics: validation, projections and effect of adaptation scenarios, Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 16, 2935–2955, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-16-2935-2012, 2012.
Vincent, M., Cojean, R., Fleureau, J.-M., Cui, Y. J., Jacquard, C., Kazmierczak, J.-B., Masrouri, F., Tessier, D., Alimi-Ichola, I., Magnan, J.-P., Blanchard, M., Fabre, D., Pantet, A., Audiguier, M., Plat, E., Souli, H., Taibi, S., Tang, A.-M., Morlock, C., Maison, T., Mrad, M., Bréda, N., Djeran-Maigre, I., Duc, M., Soubeyroux, J.-M., Denis, A., Proust, D., Geremew, Z., Le Roy, S., Dumont, M., Hemmati, S., Nowamooz, H., Coquet, Y., Pothier, C., Makki, L., Chrétien, M., and Fontaine, C.: Rapport de synthèse final du projet ARGIC (Analyse du retrait-gonflement et de ses Incidences sur les Constructions), Projet ANR-05-PRGCU-005, BRGM/RP-57011-FR report, http://infoterre.brgm.fr/rapports/RP-57011-FR.pdf (last access: 27 February 2024), 2009.
Wilks, D. S.: Statistical methods in the atmospheric sciences, 3rd Edn., Elsevier/Academic Press, Amsterdam; Boston, 676 pp., ISBN 13: 978-0-12-751966-1, 2011.
Zhao, G., Zou, W., Han, Z., Wang, D., and Wang, X.: Evolution of soil-water and shrinkage characteristics of an expansive clay during freeze-thaw and drying-wetting cycles, Cold Reg. Sci. Technol., 186, 103275, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.coldregions.2021.103275, 2021.
Short summary
A drought index is developed that quantifies drought on an annual scale, making it applicable to monitoring clay shrinkage damage to buildings. A comparison with the number of insurance claims for subsidence shows that the presence of trees near individual houses must be taken into account. Significant soil moisture droughts occurred in France in 2003, 2018, 2019, 2020, and 2022. Particularly high index values are observed in 2022. It is found that droughts will become more severe in the future.
A drought index is developed that quantifies drought on an annual scale, making it applicable to...
