Analysis of past and future droughts causing clay shrinkage in France

Barthelemy, Sophie; Bonan, Bertrand; Tomas-Burguera, Miquel; Grandjean, Gilles; Bernardie, Séverine; Naulin, Jean-Philippe; Le Moigne, Patrick; Boone, Aaron; Calvet, Jean-Christophe

doi:https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-29-2321-2025

Articles | Volume 29, issue 11

https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-29-2321-2025

© Author(s) 2025. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.

Special issue:

Drought, society, and ecosystems (NHESS/BG/GC/HESS inter-journal...

https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-29-2321-2025

© Author(s) 2025. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.

Articles | Volume 29, issue 11

Research article

|

03 Jun 2025

Research article |

| 03 Jun 2025

Analysis of past and future droughts causing clay shrinkage in France

Sophie Barthelemy, Bertrand Bonan, Miquel Tomas-Burguera, Gilles Grandjean, Séverine Bernardie, Jean-Philippe Naulin, Patrick Le Moigne, Aaron Boone, and Jean-Christophe Calvet

Supplement

https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-29-2321-2025-supplement

Data sets

Analyzing past and future droughts that induce clay shrinkage in France using an index based on water budget simulation for trees - article data S. Barthelemy et al. https://figshare.com/s/61c73ec14ed0b876641e

Model code and software

SURFEX code CNRM https://www.umr-cnrm.fr/surfex/data/OPEN-SURFEX/open_surfex_v8_1_20210914.tar.gz

Short summary

A drought index is developed that quantifies drought on an annual scale, making it applicable to monitoring clay shrinkage damage to buildings. A comparison with the number of insurance claims for subsidence shows that the presence of trees near individual houses must be taken into account. Significant soil moisture droughts occurred in France in 2003, 2018, 2019, 2020, and 2022. Particularly high index values are observed in 2022. It is found that droughts will become more severe in the future.