Articles | Volume 27, issue 5
https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-27-1151-2023
© Author(s) 2023. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-27-1151-2023
© Author(s) 2023. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
Research article
| 
16 Mar 2023
Research article |
| 16 Mar 2023
| 16 Mar 2023
Projected changes in droughts and extreme droughts in Great Britain strongly influenced by the choice of drought index
Climatic Research Unit, School of Environmental Sciences, University of East Anglia, Norwich, UK
Timothy J. Osborn
Climatic Research Unit, School of Environmental Sciences, University of East Anglia, Norwich, UK
Water Security Research Centre, University of East Anglia, Norwich, UK
Nans Addor
Geography, College of Life and Environmental Sciences, University of Exeter, Exeter, UK
Geoff Darch
Anglian Water Ltd., Huntingdon, UK
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- Historical and Projected Cropland Impacts of Heatwaves in Central Asia Under Climate Change T. Li et al. https://doi.org/10.1029/2024EF005595
- Projected changes in compound hot-dry events depend on the dry indicator considered P. Hosseinzadehtalaei et al. https://doi.org/10.1038/s43247-024-01352-4
- Altitudinal Differentiation of Forest Resilience to Drought in a Dryland Mountain J. Li et al. https://doi.org/10.3390/f14071284
- Drought index time series forecasting via three-in-one machine learning concept for the Euphrates basin L. Latifoğlu et al. https://doi.org/10.1007/s12145-024-01471-8
- High-resolution downscaled CMIP6 drought projections for Australia R. Eccles et al. https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-29-4689-2025
- Climate change impact on hydrological droughts: Differences between two ensembles of regional climate projections across Great Britain R. Lane et al. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ejrh.2026.103417
- Evolution of nonstationary hydrological drought characteristics in the UK under warming S. Jha et al. https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-30-2685-2026
- Current and future risk of unprecedented hydrological droughts in Great Britain W. Chan et al. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jhydrol.2023.130074
- Remotely Sensed Comparative Spatiotemporal Analysis of Drought and Wet Periods in Distinct Mediterranean Agroecosystems S. Sakellariou et al. https://doi.org/10.3390/rs16193652
- Two sets of bias-corrected regional UK Climate Projections 2018 (UKCP18) of temperature, precipitation and potential evapotranspiration for Great Britain N. Reyniers et al. https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-17-2113-2025
- Unprecedented extreme meteorological droughts simulated in Fenno-Scandinavia with high-resolution climate models R. Häberli et al. https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-026-08060-z
- Spatiotemporal characterization and hydrological impact of drought patterns in northwestern Morocco L. Ait Dhmane et al. https://doi.org/10.3389/frwa.2024.1463748
- How likely is Ukraine to experience an extreme drought in the near future? A. Ballarin et al. https://doi.org/10.1007/s10584-025-03958-9
- Drought risk assessment on arid region under different socioeconomic scenarios: A case of Loess Plateau, China J. Guo et al. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ecolind.2024.112728
- Projected increase in droughts over the Arabian Peninsula and associated uncertainties M. Saharwardi et al. https://doi.org/10.1038/s41598-025-85863-w
- Impact of Anthropogenic Warming on Future Unprecedented Droughts in California: Insights From Multiple Indices and Multi‐Model Projections Z. Zhou et al. https://doi.org/10.1029/2023EF003856
- Focal-TSMP: deep learning for vegetation health prediction and agricultural drought assessment from a regional climate simulation M. Shams Eddin & J. Gall https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-2987-2024
- Global assessment of socio-economic drought events at the subnational scale: a comparative analysis of combined versus single drought indicators S. Kulkarni et al. https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-29-4341-2025
- Decline in regeneration capacity in mature forests across Great Britain B. Cintra et al. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.foreco.2025.123468
- Multi-criteria assessment of factors affecting the reduction of retention capacity of dam reservoirs Ł. Pieron et al. https://doi.org/10.1525/elementa.2023.00069
- Multi-model assessment of historical and future drought characteristics (1990–2100) in the constantine highlands, Algeria: a comparative analysis of SPI and SPEI indices F. Slimani et al. https://doi.org/10.1007/s00704-026-06640-x
- Drought intensification in Brazilian catchments: implications for water and land management A. Ballarin et al. https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/ad3e18
- Climate change impacts on spatial and seasonal meteorological drought characteristics for the island of Ireland H. Meresa & C. Murphy https://doi.org/10.1002/joc.8217
- Analyzing the uncertainty of potential evapotranspiration models in drought projections derived for a semi-arid watershed U. Okkan et al. https://doi.org/10.1007/s00704-023-04817-2
Saved (final revised paper)
Latest update: 27 Oct 2026
Short summary
In an analysis of future drought projections for Great Britain based on the Standardised Precipitation Index and the Standardised Precipitation Evapotranspiration Index, we show that the choice of drought indicator has a decisive influence on the resulting projected changes in drought characteristics, although both result in increased drying. This highlights the need to understand the interplay between increasing atmospheric evaporative demand and drought impacts under a changing climate.
In an analysis of future drought projections for Great Britain based on the Standardised...
