Hydrology and Earth System Sciences
Hydrology and Earth System Sciences
HESS
Articles | Volume 26, issue 14
Articles | Volume 26, issue 14
https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-26-3847-2022
© Author(s) 2022. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-26-3847-2022
© Author(s) 2022. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
Articles | Volume 26, issue 14
Research article
 | 
22 Jul 2022
Research article |  | 22 Jul 2022

Comparison between canonical vine copulas and a meta-Gaussian model for forecasting agricultural drought over China

Haijiang Wu, Xiaoling Su, Vijay P. Singh, Te Zhang, Jixia Qi, and Shengzhi Huang

Data sets

ERA5 monthly averaged data on single levels from 1950 to 1978 (preliminary version) B. Bell, H. Hersbach, P. Berrisford, P. Dahlgren, A. Horányi, J. Muñoz Sabater, J. Nicolas, R. Radu, D. Schepers, A. Simmons, C. Soci, J.-N. and Thépaut https://cds.climate.copernicus.eu/cdsapp#!/dataset/reanalysis-era5-single-levels-monthly-means-preliminary-back-extension?tab=overview

ERA5 monthly averaged data on single levels from 1959 to present H. Hersbach, B. Bell, P. Berrisford, G. Biavati, A. Horányi, J. Muñoz Sabater, J. Nicolas, C. Peubey, R. Radu, I. Rozum, D. Schepers, A. Simmons, C. Soci, D. Dee, and J.-N. Thépaut https://doi.org/10.24381/cds.f17050d7

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Short summary
Agricultural drought forecasting lies at the core of overall drought risk management and is critical for food security and drought early warning. Using three-dimensional scenarios, we attempted to compare the agricultural drought forecast performance of a canonical vine copula (3C-vine) model and meta-Gaussian (MG) model over China. The findings show that the 3C-vine model exhibits more skill than the MG model when using 1– to 3-month lead times for forecasting agricultural drought.
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