Articles | Volume 25, issue 12
https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-25-6107-2021
© Author(s) 2021. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-25-6107-2021
© Author(s) 2021. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
Research article
| 
02 Dec 2021
Research article |
| 02 Dec 2021
| 02 Dec 2021
Enhanced flood hazard assessment beyond decadal climate cycles based on centennial historical data (Duero basin, Spain)
National Museum of Natural Sciences, MNCN-CSIC, C/ Serrano 115bis,
28006, Madrid, Spain
Olegario Castillo
Dpt. Ingeniería Industrial e Ingeniería Civil, Escuela Técnica Superior de Ingeniería de Algeciras, Universidad de Cádiz, 11202 Algeciras, Cádiz, Spain
Juan A. Ballesteros-Cánovas
Climatic Change Impacts and Risks in the Anthropocene (C-CIA),
Institute for Environmental Sciences, University of Geneva, Geneva,
Switzerland
Maria Machado
National Museum of Natural Sciences, MNCN-CSIC, C/ Serrano 115bis,
28006, Madrid, Spain
Mariano Barriendos
Dpt. d'Història i Arqueologia, Universitat de Barcelona,
Montalegre 6, 08001 Barcelona, Spain
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19 citations as recorded by crossref.
- Overlooking probabilistic mapping renders urban flood risk management inequitable J. Bodoque et al. 10.1038/s43247-023-00940-0
- An assessment of flood occurrences in Poland in the 16th century B. Ghazi et al. 10.1016/j.ejrh.2023.101597
- Late Pleistocene–Holocene multi-decadal patterns of extreme floods in NW Iberia: The Duero River palaeoflood record G. Benito et al. 10.1016/j.quascirev.2023.108356
- Reconstructing the magnitudes of Holocene extraordinary floods in the upper Huai River, China L. Shang et al. 10.1016/j.quascirev.2025.109371
- One catastrophic flood every millennium: Synchronicity of extreme floods and global warm periods in the multi-archive record of the Roman theatre of Guadix (Granada, SE Spain) A. Díez-Herrero et al. 10.1016/j.gloplacha.2024.104363
- Reliability of flood marks and practical relevance for flood hazard assessment in southwestern Germany A. Bösmeier et al. 10.5194/nhess-22-2963-2022
- The frequency, intensity, and origin of floods in Poland in the 11th–15th centuries based on documentary evidence B. Ghazi et al. 10.1016/j.jhydrol.2023.129778
- Low-Frequency Atmospheric Variability Patterns and Synoptic Types Linked to Large Floods in the Lower Ebro River Basin J. Peña et al. 10.1175/JCLI-D-20-0394.1
- Long-term reconstruction of flash floods in the Qilian Mountains, China, based on dendrogeomorphic methods J. Qie et al. 10.1007/s11629-022-7577-1
- Numerical simulation of the deadliest flood event of Portugal: Unravelling the causes of the disaster D. Fernández-Nóvoa et al. 10.1016/j.scitotenv.2023.165092
- Reconstruction of the 1374 Rhine river flood event around Cologne region using 1D-2D coupled hydraulic modelling approach H. Ngo et al. 10.1016/j.jhydrol.2022.129039
- Holocene Thermal Maximum paleofloods improve flood frequency analyses in the lower Tennessee River Basin (USA) M. Davis et al. 10.1016/j.gloplacha.2024.104412
- A comprehensive study of floods in Poland in the 17th–18th centuries B. Ghazi et al. 10.1016/j.ejrh.2024.101796
- Historical floods in the southeastern Iberian Peninsula since the 16th century: Trends and regional analysis of extreme flood events C. Sánchez-García & L. Schulte 10.1016/j.gloplacha.2023.104317
- Designing an instrument to measure attitudes toward flood risk management in riverside populations M. Amérigo et al. 10.1016/j.ijdrr.2024.104448
- Historical flood reconstruction in a torrential alpine catchment and its implication for flood hazard assessments Y. Zhong et al. 10.1016/j.jhydrol.2023.130547
- Assessing the impact of tropical cyclones on economic sectors in Costa Rica, Central America A. Quesada-Román et al. 10.1016/j.tcrr.2024.08.001
- Assessing the most severe subsistence crisis of the 18th century in the northwest of the Iberian Peninsula: a climatological perspective M. deCastro et al. 10.5194/cp-21-593-2025
- The Rivillas flood of 5–6 November 1997 (Badajoz, Spain) revisited: An approach based on Iber+ modelling J. González-Cao et al. 10.1016/j.jhydrol.2022.127883
19 citations as recorded by crossref.
- Overlooking probabilistic mapping renders urban flood risk management inequitable J. Bodoque et al. 10.1038/s43247-023-00940-0
- An assessment of flood occurrences in Poland in the 16th century B. Ghazi et al. 10.1016/j.ejrh.2023.101597
- Late Pleistocene–Holocene multi-decadal patterns of extreme floods in NW Iberia: The Duero River palaeoflood record G. Benito et al. 10.1016/j.quascirev.2023.108356
- Reconstructing the magnitudes of Holocene extraordinary floods in the upper Huai River, China L. Shang et al. 10.1016/j.quascirev.2025.109371
- One catastrophic flood every millennium: Synchronicity of extreme floods and global warm periods in the multi-archive record of the Roman theatre of Guadix (Granada, SE Spain) A. Díez-Herrero et al. 10.1016/j.gloplacha.2024.104363
- Reliability of flood marks and practical relevance for flood hazard assessment in southwestern Germany A. Bösmeier et al. 10.5194/nhess-22-2963-2022
- The frequency, intensity, and origin of floods in Poland in the 11th–15th centuries based on documentary evidence B. Ghazi et al. 10.1016/j.jhydrol.2023.129778
- Low-Frequency Atmospheric Variability Patterns and Synoptic Types Linked to Large Floods in the Lower Ebro River Basin J. Peña et al. 10.1175/JCLI-D-20-0394.1
- Long-term reconstruction of flash floods in the Qilian Mountains, China, based on dendrogeomorphic methods J. Qie et al. 10.1007/s11629-022-7577-1
- Numerical simulation of the deadliest flood event of Portugal: Unravelling the causes of the disaster D. Fernández-Nóvoa et al. 10.1016/j.scitotenv.2023.165092
- Reconstruction of the 1374 Rhine river flood event around Cologne region using 1D-2D coupled hydraulic modelling approach H. Ngo et al. 10.1016/j.jhydrol.2022.129039
- Holocene Thermal Maximum paleofloods improve flood frequency analyses in the lower Tennessee River Basin (USA) M. Davis et al. 10.1016/j.gloplacha.2024.104412
- A comprehensive study of floods in Poland in the 17th–18th centuries B. Ghazi et al. 10.1016/j.ejrh.2024.101796
- Historical floods in the southeastern Iberian Peninsula since the 16th century: Trends and regional analysis of extreme flood events C. Sánchez-García & L. Schulte 10.1016/j.gloplacha.2023.104317
- Designing an instrument to measure attitudes toward flood risk management in riverside populations M. Amérigo et al. 10.1016/j.ijdrr.2024.104448
- Historical flood reconstruction in a torrential alpine catchment and its implication for flood hazard assessments Y. Zhong et al. 10.1016/j.jhydrol.2023.130547
- Assessing the impact of tropical cyclones on economic sectors in Costa Rica, Central America A. Quesada-Román et al. 10.1016/j.tcrr.2024.08.001
- Assessing the most severe subsistence crisis of the 18th century in the northwest of the Iberian Peninsula: a climatological perspective M. deCastro et al. 10.5194/cp-21-593-2025
- The Rivillas flood of 5–6 November 1997 (Badajoz, Spain) revisited: An approach based on Iber+ modelling J. González-Cao et al. 10.1016/j.jhydrol.2022.127883
Latest update: 27 May 2025
Short summary
Climate change is expected to increase the intensity of floods, but changes are difficult to project. We compiled historical and modern flood data of the Rio Duero (Spain) to evaluate flood hazards beyond decadal climate cycles. Historical floods were obtained from documentary sources, identifying 69 floods over 1250–1871 CE. Discharges were calculated from reported flood heights. Flood frequency using historical datasets showed the most robust results, guiding climate change adaptation.
Climate change is expected to increase the intensity of floods, but changes are difficult to...
