Articles | Volume 24, issue 8
https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-24-3881-2020
© Author(s) 2020. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-24-3881-2020
© Author(s) 2020. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
Do surface lateral flows matter for data assimilation of soil moisture observations into hyperresolution land models?
Yohei Sawada
CORRESPONDING AUTHOR
Institute of Engineering Innovation, the University of Tokyo, Tokyo, Japan
Meteorological Research Institute, Japan Meteorological Agency,
Tsukuba, Japan
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Sneha Kulkarni, Yohei Sawada, Yared Bayissa, and Brian Wardlow
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Understanding how drought impacts communities is complex and not yet fully understood. We examined a disaster dataset and compared various drought measures to pinpoint affected regions. Our new combined drought indicator (CDI) was found to be the most effective in identifying more drought events than other traditional drought indices. This underscores the CDI's importance in evaluating drought risks and directing attention to the most impacted areas.
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The Nash–Sutcliffe efficiency (NSE) is a widely used score in hydrology, but it is not common in the other environmental sciences. One of the reasons for its unpopularity is that its scientific meaning is somehow unclear in the literature. This study attempts to establish a solid foundation for NSE from the viewpoint of signal progressing. This approach is shown to yield profound explanations to many open problems related to NSE. A generalized NSE that can be used in general cases is proposed.
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This study explores the link between hydrometeorological droughts and their socioeconomic impact at a subnational scale based on the newly developed disaster dataset with subnational location information. Hydrometeorological drought-prone areas were generally consistent with socioeconomic drought-prone areas in the disaster dataset. Our analysis clarifies the importance of the use of subnational disaster information.
Yohei Sawada, Rin Kanai, and Hitomu Kotani
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 26, 4265–4278, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-26-4265-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-26-4265-2022, 2022
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Although flood early warning systems (FEWS) are promising, they inevitably issue false alarms. Many false alarms undermine the credibility of FEWS, which we call a cry wolf effect. Here, we present a simple model that can simulate the cry wolf effect. Our model implies that the cry wolf effect is important if a community is heavily protected by infrastructure and few floods occur. The cry wolf effects get more important as the natural scientific skill to predict flood events is improved.
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A new method to predict chaotic systems from observation and process-based models is proposed by combining machine learning with data assimilation. Our method is robust to the sparsity of observation networks and can predict more accurately than a process-based model when it is biased. Our method effectively works when both observations and models are imperfect, which is often the case in geoscience. Therefore, our method is useful to solve a wide variety of prediction problems in this field.
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In socio-hydrology, human–water interactions are investigated. Researchers have two major methodologies in socio-hydrology, namely mathematical modeling and empirical data analysis. Here we propose a new method for bringing the synergic effect of models and data to socio-hydrology. We apply sequential data assimilation, which has been widely used in geoscience, to a flood risk model to analyze the human–flood interactions by model–data integration.
Yohei Sawada
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Manuscript not accepted for further review
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Hydrologic data assimmilation is the area in which methods to integrate hydrological models and observations are investigated. Recently, hydrological or land models are increasing their complexity with very high spatial resolution. However, it is unclear that the current data assimilation method can directly be applied to those hyperresolution models so that I investigated the applicability and limitation of the existing method by minimalistic numerical experiments.
Sneha Kulkarni, Yohei Sawada, Yared Bayissa, and Brian Wardlow
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Preprint under review for HESS
Short summary
Short summary
Understanding how drought impacts communities is complex and not yet fully understood. We examined a disaster dataset and compared various drought measures to pinpoint affected regions. Our new combined drought indicator (CDI) was found to be the most effective in identifying more drought events than other traditional drought indices. This underscores the CDI's importance in evaluating drought risks and directing attention to the most impacted areas.
Yohei Sawada
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/https://doi.org/10.48550/arXiv.2403.06371, https://doi.org/https://doi.org/10.48550/arXiv.2403.06371, 2024
Preprint archived
Short summary
Short summary
It is generally difficult to control large-scale and complex systems, such as Earth systems, using small forces. In this paper, a new method to control such systems is proposed. The new method is inspired by the similarity between simulation-observation integration methods in geoscience and model predictive control theory in control engineering. The proposed method is particularly suitable to find the efficient strategies of weather modification.
Le Duc and Yohei Sawada
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 27, 1827–1839, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-27-1827-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-27-1827-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
The Nash–Sutcliffe efficiency (NSE) is a widely used score in hydrology, but it is not common in the other environmental sciences. One of the reasons for its unpopularity is that its scientific meaning is somehow unclear in the literature. This study attempts to establish a solid foundation for NSE from the viewpoint of signal progressing. This approach is shown to yield profound explanations to many open problems related to NSE. A generalized NSE that can be used in general cases is proposed.
Yuya Kageyama and Yohei Sawada
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 26, 4707–4720, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-26-4707-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-26-4707-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
This study explores the link between hydrometeorological droughts and their socioeconomic impact at a subnational scale based on the newly developed disaster dataset with subnational location information. Hydrometeorological drought-prone areas were generally consistent with socioeconomic drought-prone areas in the disaster dataset. Our analysis clarifies the importance of the use of subnational disaster information.
Yohei Sawada, Rin Kanai, and Hitomu Kotani
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 26, 4265–4278, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-26-4265-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-26-4265-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
Although flood early warning systems (FEWS) are promising, they inevitably issue false alarms. Many false alarms undermine the credibility of FEWS, which we call a cry wolf effect. Here, we present a simple model that can simulate the cry wolf effect. Our model implies that the cry wolf effect is important if a community is heavily protected by infrastructure and few floods occur. The cry wolf effects get more important as the natural scientific skill to predict flood events is improved.
Futo Tomizawa and Yohei Sawada
Geosci. Model Dev., 14, 5623–5635, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-14-5623-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-14-5623-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
A new method to predict chaotic systems from observation and process-based models is proposed by combining machine learning with data assimilation. Our method is robust to the sparsity of observation networks and can predict more accurately than a process-based model when it is biased. Our method effectively works when both observations and models are imperfect, which is often the case in geoscience. Therefore, our method is useful to solve a wide variety of prediction problems in this field.
Yohei Sawada and Risa Hanazaki
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 4777–4791, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-24-4777-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-24-4777-2020, 2020
Short summary
Short summary
In socio-hydrology, human–water interactions are investigated. Researchers have two major methodologies in socio-hydrology, namely mathematical modeling and empirical data analysis. Here we propose a new method for bringing the synergic effect of models and data to socio-hydrology. We apply sequential data assimilation, which has been widely used in geoscience, to a flood risk model to analyze the human–flood interactions by model–data integration.
Yohei Sawada
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-2019-324, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-2019-324, 2019
Manuscript not accepted for further review
Short summary
Short summary
Hydrologic data assimmilation is the area in which methods to integrate hydrological models and observations are investigated. Recently, hydrological or land models are increasing their complexity with very high spatial resolution. However, it is unclear that the current data assimilation method can directly be applied to those hyperresolution models so that I investigated the applicability and limitation of the existing method by minimalistic numerical experiments.
Related subject area
Subject: Hillslope hydrology | Techniques and Approaches: Uncertainty analysis
Identifying uncertainties in hydrologic fluxes and seasonality from hydrologic model components for climate change impact assessments
Assessing the sources of uncertainty associated with the calculation of rainfall kinetic energy and erosivity – application to the Upper Llobregat Basin, NE Spain
Dongmei Feng and Edward Beighley
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 2253–2267, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-24-2253-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-24-2253-2020, 2020
Short summary
Short summary
Assessment of climate change impacts on hydrologic systems is critical for making adaptation strategies but subject to uncertainties from various sources. This study developed a framework to investigate such uncertainties from both hydrologic model components and climate forcings as well as associated parameterization. Results of this study reveal variable uncertainty compositions for different hydrological quantities and imply limited impact of hydrologic model parameter equifinality.
G. Catari, J. Latron, and F. Gallart
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 15, 679–688, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-15-679-2011, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-15-679-2011, 2011
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Short summary
Hydrologic data assimmilation is the area in which methods to integrate hydrological models and observations are investigated. Recently, hydrological or land models have been increasing their complexity, with very high spatial resolution. However, it is unclear that the current data assimilation method can directly be applied to those hyperresolution models, so that I investigated the applicability and limitation of the existing method by minimalistic numerical experiments.
Hydrologic data assimmilation is the area in which methods to integrate hydrological models and...