Seasonal drought predictability and forecast skill in the semi-arid endorheic Heihe River basin in northwestern China

Ma, Feng; Luo, Lifeng; Ye, Aizhong; Duan, Qingyun

doi:https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-22-5697-2018

Articles | Volume 22, issue 11

https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-22-5697-2018

© Author(s) 2018. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.

https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-22-5697-2018

© Author(s) 2018. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.

Articles | Volume 22, issue 11

Research article

|

05 Nov 2018

Research article |

| 05 Nov 2018

Seasonal drought predictability and forecast skill in the semi-arid endorheic Heihe River basin in northwestern China

Feng Ma, Lifeng Luo, Aizhong Ye, and Qingyun Duan

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Final revised paper (published on 05 Nov 2018)
Preprint (discussion started on 07 Aug 2018)

Interactive discussion

Status: closed

AC: Author comment | RC: Referee comment | SC: Short comment | EC: Editor comment

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- Supplement

RC1: 'comments', Anonymous Referee #1, 16 Sep 2018
- AC1: 'Response to reviewers1', aizhong ye, 22 Sep 2018
- AC2: 'Response to reviewers2', aizhong ye, 22 Sep 2018
RC2: 'comments', Anonymous Referee #2, 19 Sep 2018
- AC2: 'Response to reviewers2', aizhong ye, 22 Sep 2018
- AC1: 'Response to reviewers1', aizhong ye, 22 Sep 2018

Peer-review completion

AR: Author's response | RR: Referee report | ED: Editor decision

ED: Publish subject to minor revisions (further review by editor) (12 Oct 2018) by Lixin Wang

AR by aizhong ye on behalf of the Authors (15 Oct 2018) Author's response Manuscript

ED: Publish as is (16 Oct 2018) by Lixin Wang

AR by aizhong ye on behalf of the Authors (16 Oct 2018) Manuscript

Short summary

Predicting meteorological droughts more than 2 months in advance became difficult due to low predictability, leading to weak skill for hydrological droughts in wet seasons. Hydrological drought forecasts showed skills up to 3–6 lead months due to the memory of initial hydrologic conditions in dry seasons. Human activities have increased hydrological predictability during wet seasons in the MHRB. This fills gaps in understanding drought and predictability predictions in endorheic and arid basins.