Hydrology and Earth System Sciences
Hydrology and Earth System Sciences
HESS
Articles | Volume 22, issue 11
Articles | Volume 22, issue 11
https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-22-5697-2018
© Author(s) 2018. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-22-5697-2018
© Author(s) 2018. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
Articles | Volume 22, issue 11
Research article
 | 
05 Nov 2018
Research article |  | 05 Nov 2018

Seasonal drought predictability and forecast skill in the semi-arid endorheic Heihe River basin in northwestern China

Feng Ma, Lifeng Luo, Aizhong Ye, and Qingyun Duan

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Short summary
Predicting meteorological droughts more than 2 months in advance became difficult due to low predictability, leading to weak skill for hydrological droughts in wet seasons. Hydrological drought forecasts showed skills up to 3–6 lead months due to the memory of initial hydrologic conditions in dry seasons. Human activities have increased hydrological predictability during wet seasons in the MHRB. This fills gaps in understanding drought and predictability predictions in endorheic and arid basins.
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