Articles | Volume 22, issue 1
https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-22-143-2018
https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-22-143-2018
Research article
 | 
09 Jan 2018
Research article |  | 09 Jan 2018

Does objective cluster analysis serve as a useful precursor to seasonal precipitation prediction at local scale? Application to western Ethiopia

Ying Zhang, Semu Moges, and Paul Block

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Latest update: 12 Apr 2024
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Short summary
The study proposes advancing local-level seasonal rainfall predictions by first conditioning on regional-level predictions, as defined through cluster analysis. This statistical approach is applied to western Ethiopia, where lives and livelihoods are vulnerable to its high spatial–temporal rainfall variability, particularly given the high reliance on rain-fed agriculture. The statistical model improves in skills versus the non-clustered case or dynamical models for some critical regions.