Hydrology and Earth System Sciences
Hydrology and Earth System Sciences
HESS
Articles | Volume 22, issue 1
Articles | Volume 22, issue 1
https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-22-143-2018
© Author(s) 2018. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 License.
Special issue:
https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-22-143-2018
© Author(s) 2018. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 License.
Articles | Volume 22, issue 1
Research article
 | 
09 Jan 2018
Research article |  | 09 Jan 2018

Does objective cluster analysis serve as a useful precursor to seasonal precipitation prediction at local scale? Application to western Ethiopia

Ying Zhang, Semu Moges, and Paul Block

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Short summary
The study proposes advancing local-level seasonal rainfall predictions by first conditioning on regional-level predictions, as defined through cluster analysis. This statistical approach is applied to western Ethiopia, where lives and livelihoods are vulnerable to its high spatial–temporal rainfall variability, particularly given the high reliance on rain-fed agriculture. The statistical model improves in skills versus the non-clustered case or dynamical models for some critical regions.
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Special issue
Sub-seasonal to seasonal hydrological forecasting