Articles | Volume 21, issue 6
https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-21-2615-2017
© Author(s) 2017. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 License.
https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-21-2615-2017
© Author(s) 2017. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 License.
Estimating extreme river discharges in Europe through a Bayesian network
Department of Hydraulic Engineering, Faculty of Civil Engineering and Geosciences, Delft University of Technology, Stevinweg 11, 2628 CN Delft, the Netherlands
Oswaldo Morales-Nápoles
Department of Hydraulic Engineering, Faculty of Civil Engineering and Geosciences, Delft University of Technology, Stevinweg 11, 2628 CN Delft, the Netherlands
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Dominik Paprotny, Belinda Rhein, Michalis I. Vousdoukas, Paweł Terefenko, Francesco Dottori, Simon Treu, Jakub Śledziowski, Luc Feyen, and Heidi Kreibich
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 28, 3983–4010, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-3983-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-3983-2024, 2024
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Long-term trends in flood losses are regulated by multiple factors, including climate variation, population and economic growth, land-use transitions, reservoir construction, and flood risk reduction measures. Here, we reconstruct the factual circumstances in which almost 15 000 potential riverine, coastal and compound floods in Europe occurred between 1950 and 2020. About 10 % of those events are reported to have caused significant socioeconomic impacts.
Anna Buch, Dominik Paprotny, Kasra Rafiezadeh Shahi, Heidi Kreibich, and Nivedita Sairam
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-2340, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-2340, 2024
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Many households in Vietnam depend on revenues from microbusinesses (shop-houses). However, losses caused by regular flooding to the microbusinesses are not modelled. Business turnover, building age and water depth are found to be the main drivers of flood losses to microbusinesses. We built and validated probabilistic models (Non-parametric Bayesian Networks) that estimate flood losses to microbusinesses. The results help in flood risk management and adaption decision making for microbusinesses.
Aloïs Tilloy, Dominik Paprotny, Stefania Grimaldi, Goncalo Gomes, Alessandra Bianchi, Stefan Lange, Hylke Beck, and Luc Feyen
Earth Syst. Sci. Data Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-2024-41, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-2024-41, 2024
Preprint under review for ESSD
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This article presents a reanalysis of Europe's rivers streamflow for the period 1950–2020, using a state-of-the-art hydrological simulation framework. The dataset, called HERA (Hydrological European ReAnalysis), uses detailed information about the landscape, climate, and human activities to estimate river flow. HERA can be a valuable tool for studying hydrological dynamics, including the impacts of climate change and human activities on European water resources, flood and drought risks.
Dominik Paprotny, Paweł Terefenko, and Jakub Śledziowski
Earth Syst. Sci. Data Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-2023-321, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-2023-321, 2023
Revised manuscript accepted for ESSD
Short summary
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Knowledge about past natural disasters can help adapting to their future occurrences. Here, we present a dataset of 2521 riverine, pluvial, coastal and compound floods that have occurred in 42 European countries between 1870 and 2020. The dataset contains available information on the area inundated, fatalities, persons affected or economic loss, and was obtained by extensive data-collection from more than 800 sources ranging from news reports through government databases to scientific papers.
Dominik Paprotny and Matthias Mengel
Geosci. Model Dev. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-2022-194, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-2022-194, 2022
Preprint withdrawn
Short summary
Short summary
Population and economic growth over past decades have increased risk posed by natural hazards. The model presented here generates high-resolution maps of land use, population and assets (exposure) from 1870 to 2020 for 42 countries. It combines multiple methods with a large database of historical statistical data to approximate past anthropogenic environment of Europe. It enables attributing losses from past disasters to climate change by removing the influence of changes in exposure.
Dominik Paprotny, Heidi Kreibich, Oswaldo Morales-Nápoles, Paweł Terefenko, and Kai Schröter
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 20, 323–343, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-20-323-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-20-323-2020, 2020
Short summary
Short summary
Houses and their contents in Europe are worth trillions of euros, resulting in high losses from natural hazards. Hence, risk assessments need to reliably estimate the size and value of houses, including the value of durable goods kept inside. In this work we show how openly available or open datasets can be used to predict the size of individual residential buildings. Further, we provide standardized monetary values of houses and contents per square metre of floor space for 30 countries.
Dominik Paprotny, Michalis I. Vousdoukas, Oswaldo Morales-Nápoles, Sebastiaan N. Jonkman, and Luc Feyen
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-2018-132, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-2018-132, 2018
Preprint withdrawn
Dominik Paprotny, Oswaldo Morales-Nápoles, and Sebastiaan N. Jonkman
Earth Syst. Sci. Data, 10, 565–581, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-10-565-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-10-565-2018, 2018
Short summary
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Natural hazards affect areas with various population density, economic production value and preparedness. This database will help to assess the impact of hazards in Europe in a long-term perspective. It contains data on losses, dates and location of 1564 floods from 1870–2016 in 37 countries. For the same area and timeframe, land use, population and asset value were reconstructed. Combining both data sets, one can correct the amount of losses from past events for demographic and economic growth.
Dominik Paprotny, Oswaldo Morales-Nápoles, and Sebastiaan N. Jonkman
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 17, 1267–1283, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-17-1267-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-17-1267-2017, 2017
D. Paprotny and P. Terefenko
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/nhessd-3-2493-2015, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhessd-3-2493-2015, 2015
Revised manuscript not accepted
Dominik Paprotny, Belinda Rhein, Michalis I. Vousdoukas, Paweł Terefenko, Francesco Dottori, Simon Treu, Jakub Śledziowski, Luc Feyen, and Heidi Kreibich
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 28, 3983–4010, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-3983-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-3983-2024, 2024
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Long-term trends in flood losses are regulated by multiple factors, including climate variation, population and economic growth, land-use transitions, reservoir construction, and flood risk reduction measures. Here, we reconstruct the factual circumstances in which almost 15 000 potential riverine, coastal and compound floods in Europe occurred between 1950 and 2020. About 10 % of those events are reported to have caused significant socioeconomic impacts.
Anna Buch, Dominik Paprotny, Kasra Rafiezadeh Shahi, Heidi Kreibich, and Nivedita Sairam
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-2340, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-2340, 2024
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Many households in Vietnam depend on revenues from microbusinesses (shop-houses). However, losses caused by regular flooding to the microbusinesses are not modelled. Business turnover, building age and water depth are found to be the main drivers of flood losses to microbusinesses. We built and validated probabilistic models (Non-parametric Bayesian Networks) that estimate flood losses to microbusinesses. The results help in flood risk management and adaption decision making for microbusinesses.
Guus Rongen, Oswaldo Morales-Nápoles, and Matthijs Kok
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 28, 2831–2848, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-2831-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-2831-2024, 2024
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This study proposes a new method for predicting extreme events such as floods on the river Meuse. The current method was shown to be unreliable as it did not predict a recent flood. We developed a model that includes information from experts and combines this with measurements. We found that this approach gives more accurate predictions, particularly for extreme events. The research is important for predictions of extreme flood levels that are necessary for protecting communities against floods.
Aloïs Tilloy, Dominik Paprotny, Stefania Grimaldi, Goncalo Gomes, Alessandra Bianchi, Stefan Lange, Hylke Beck, and Luc Feyen
Earth Syst. Sci. Data Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-2024-41, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-2024-41, 2024
Preprint under review for ESSD
Short summary
Short summary
This article presents a reanalysis of Europe's rivers streamflow for the period 1950–2020, using a state-of-the-art hydrological simulation framework. The dataset, called HERA (Hydrological European ReAnalysis), uses detailed information about the landscape, climate, and human activities to estimate river flow. HERA can be a valuable tool for studying hydrological dynamics, including the impacts of climate change and human activities on European water resources, flood and drought risks.
Dominik Paprotny, Paweł Terefenko, and Jakub Śledziowski
Earth Syst. Sci. Data Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-2023-321, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-2023-321, 2023
Revised manuscript accepted for ESSD
Short summary
Short summary
Knowledge about past natural disasters can help adapting to their future occurrences. Here, we present a dataset of 2521 riverine, pluvial, coastal and compound floods that have occurred in 42 European countries between 1870 and 2020. The dataset contains available information on the area inundated, fatalities, persons affected or economic loss, and was obtained by extensive data-collection from more than 800 sources ranging from news reports through government databases to scientific papers.
Dominik Paprotny and Matthias Mengel
Geosci. Model Dev. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-2022-194, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-2022-194, 2022
Preprint withdrawn
Short summary
Short summary
Population and economic growth over past decades have increased risk posed by natural hazards. The model presented here generates high-resolution maps of land use, population and assets (exposure) from 1870 to 2020 for 42 countries. It combines multiple methods with a large database of historical statistical data to approximate past anthropogenic environment of Europe. It enables attributing losses from past disasters to climate change by removing the influence of changes in exposure.
Elisa Ragno, Markus Hrachowitz, and Oswaldo Morales-Nápoles
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 26, 1695–1711, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-26-1695-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-26-1695-2022, 2022
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We explore the ability of non-parametric Bayesian networks to reproduce maximum daily discharge in a given month in a catchment when the remaining hydro-meteorological and catchment attributes are known. We show that a saturated network evaluated in an individual catchment can reproduce statistical characteristics of discharge in about ~ 40 % of the cases, while challenges remain when a saturated network considering all the catchments together is evaluated.
Dominik Paprotny, Heidi Kreibich, Oswaldo Morales-Nápoles, Paweł Terefenko, and Kai Schröter
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 20, 323–343, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-20-323-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-20-323-2020, 2020
Short summary
Short summary
Houses and their contents in Europe are worth trillions of euros, resulting in high losses from natural hazards. Hence, risk assessments need to reliably estimate the size and value of houses, including the value of durable goods kept inside. In this work we show how openly available or open datasets can be used to predict the size of individual residential buildings. Further, we provide standardized monetary values of houses and contents per square metre of floor space for 30 countries.
Dominik Paprotny, Michalis I. Vousdoukas, Oswaldo Morales-Nápoles, Sebastiaan N. Jonkman, and Luc Feyen
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-2018-132, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-2018-132, 2018
Preprint withdrawn
Dominik Paprotny, Oswaldo Morales-Nápoles, and Sebastiaan N. Jonkman
Earth Syst. Sci. Data, 10, 565–581, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-10-565-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-10-565-2018, 2018
Short summary
Short summary
Natural hazards affect areas with various population density, economic production value and preparedness. This database will help to assess the impact of hazards in Europe in a long-term perspective. It contains data on losses, dates and location of 1564 floods from 1870–2016 in 37 countries. For the same area and timeframe, land use, population and asset value were reconstructed. Combining both data sets, one can correct the amount of losses from past events for demographic and economic growth.
Dominik Paprotny, Oswaldo Morales-Nápoles, and Sebastiaan N. Jonkman
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 17, 1267–1283, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-17-1267-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-17-1267-2017, 2017
D. Paprotny and P. Terefenko
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/nhessd-3-2493-2015, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhessd-3-2493-2015, 2015
Revised manuscript not accepted
Related subject area
Subject: Rivers and Lakes | Techniques and Approaches: Mathematical applications
GRAINet: mapping grain size distributions in river beds from UAV images with convolutional neural networks
A wavelet-based approach to streamflow event identification and modeled timing error evaluation
Variability in epilimnion depth estimations in lakes
Hydrodynamic and environmental characteristics of a tributary bay influenced by backwater jacking and intrusions from a main reservoir
Automatic identification of alternating morphological units in river channels using wavelet analysis and ridge extraction
Stream temperature and discharge evolution in Switzerland over the last 50 years: annual and seasonal behaviour
KULTURisk regional risk assessment methodology for water-related natural hazards – Part 2: Application to the Zurich case study
Reply to D. L. Peters' Comment on "Streamflow input to Lake Athabasca, Canada" by Rasouli et al. (2013)
Temporal and spatial changes of water quality and management strategies of Dianchi Lake in southwest China
A model based on dimensional analysis for prediction of nitrogen and phosphorus concentrations at the river station Ižkovce, Slovakia
A hybrid model of self organizing maps and least square support vector machine for river flow forecasting
Spatial variability in floodplain sedimentation: the use of generalized linear mixed-effects models
Flood trends and variability in the Mekong river
Nico Lang, Andrea Irniger, Agnieszka Rozniak, Roni Hunziker, Jan Dirk Wegner, and Konrad Schindler
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 25, 2567–2597, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-25-2567-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-25-2567-2021, 2021
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Grain size analysis is the key to understanding the sediment dynamics of river systems and is an important indicator for mitigating flood risk and preserving biodiversity in aquatic habitats. We propose GRAINet, a data-driven approach based on deep learning, to regress grain size distributions from georeferenced UAV images. This allows for a holistic analysis of entire gravel bars, resulting in robust grading curves and high-resolution maps of spatial grain size distribution at large scale.
Erin Towler and James L. McCreight
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 25, 2599–2615, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-25-2599-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-25-2599-2021, 2021
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We present a wavelet-based approach to quantify streamflow timing errors for model evaluation and development. We demonstrate the method using real and simulated stream discharge data from several locations. We show how results can be used to identify potential hydrologic processes contributing to the timing errors. Furthermore, we illustrate how the method can document model performance by comparing timing errors across versions of the National Water Model.
Harriet L. Wilson, Ana I. Ayala, Ian D. Jones, Alec Rolston, Don Pierson, Elvira de Eyto, Hans-Peter Grossart, Marie-Elodie Perga, R. Iestyn Woolway, and Eleanor Jennings
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 5559–5577, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-24-5559-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-24-5559-2020, 2020
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Lakes are often described in terms of vertical layers. The
epilimnionrefers to the warm surface layer that is homogeneous due to mixing. The depth of the epilimnion can influence air–water exchanges and the vertical distribution of biological variables. We compared various methods for defining the epilimnion layer and found large variability between methods. Certain methods may be better suited for applications such as multi-lake comparison and assessing the impact of climate change.
Xintong Li, Bing Liu, Yuanming Wang, Yongan Yang, Ruifeng Liang, Fangjun Peng, Shudan Xue, Zaixiang Zhu, and Kefeng Li
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 5057–5076, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-24-5057-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-24-5057-2020, 2020
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We aim to understand the hydrodynamic and environmental characteristics of a tributary bay influenced by a main reservoir. The results showed that the tributary bay was mainly affected by backwater jacking of the main reservoir when the water level dropped and by intrusion of the main reservoir when the water level rose. An obvious quality concentration boundary existed in the tributary bay. The results of this study can provide guidance for water environment protection in tributary bays.
Mounir Mahdade, Nicolas Le Moine, Roger Moussa, Oldrich Navratil, and Pierre Ribstein
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 3513–3537, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-24-3513-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-24-3513-2020, 2020
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We present an automatic procedure based on wavelet ridge extraction to identify some characteristics of alternating morphological units (e.g., pools to riffles). We used four hydro-morphological variables (velocity, hydraulic radius, bed shear stress, local channel direction angle). We find that the wavelengths are consistent with the values of the literature, and the use of a multivariate approach yields more robust results and ensures a consistent covariance of flow variables.
Adrien Michel, Tristan Brauchli, Michael Lehning, Bettina Schaefli, and Hendrik Huwald
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 115–142, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-24-115-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-24-115-2020, 2020
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This study constitutes the first comprehensive analysis of river
temperature in Switzerland combined with discharge and key meteorological variables, such as air temperature and precipitation. It is also the first study to discuss the large-scale seasonal behaviour of stream temperature in Switzerland. This research shows the clear increase of river temperature in Switzerland over the last few decades and may serve as a solid reference for future climate change scenario simulations.
P. Ronco, M. Bullo, S. Torresan, A. Critto, R. Olschewski, M. Zappa, and A. Marcomini
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 19, 1561–1576, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-19-1561-2015, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-19-1561-2015, 2015
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The aim of the paper is the application of the KULTURisk regional risk assessment (KR-RRA) methodology, presented in the companion paper (Part 1), to the Sihl River basin, in northern Switzerland. Flood-related risks have been assessed for different receptors lying in the Sihl river valley including the city of Zurich, which represents a typical case of river flooding in an urban area, by means of a calibration process of the methodology to the site-specific context and features.
K. Rasouli, M. A. Hernández-Henríquez, and S. J. Déry
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 19, 1287–1292, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-19-1287-2015, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-19-1287-2015, 2015
T. Zhang, W. H. Zeng, S. R. Wang, and Z. K. Ni
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 18, 1493–1502, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-18-1493-2014, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-18-1493-2014, 2014
M. Zeleňáková, M. Čarnogurská, M. Šlezingr, D. Słyś, and P. Purcz
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 17, 201–209, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-17-201-2013, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-17-201-2013, 2013
S. Ismail, A. Shabri, and R. Samsudin
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 16, 4417–4433, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-16-4417-2012, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-16-4417-2012, 2012
A. Cabezas, M. Angulo-Martínez, M. Gonzalez-Sanchís, J. J. Jimenez, and F. A. Comín
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 14, 1655–1668, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-14-1655-2010, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-14-1655-2010, 2010
J. M. Delgado, H. Apel, and B. Merz
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 14, 407–418, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-14-407-2010, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-14-407-2010, 2010
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