the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
Compound flood potential in Europe
Abstract. The interaction between storm surges and inland runoff has been gaining increasing attention recently, as they have the potential to result in compound floods. In Europe, several flood events of this type have been recorded in the past century in Belgium, France, Ireland, Italy and United Kingdom. Here, we investigate the probability of joint occurrence of storm surges, precipitation, river discharges and waves. A coincidence of those factors have a potential to cause compound floods. We use several datasets covering most of Europe, including observations and data from the European Flood Awareness System (EFAS), ERA-Interim climate reanalysis and a regional climate model within the CORDEX framework, and carry out a statistical analysis based on copulas to assess the likelihood of joint occurrence. Further, we synthesize the joint probability of occurrence of extreme compound events, and their intensity, in the form of a composite index, thus identifying areas where compound floods could be of most concern. The results show considerable regional differences in dependency structure and the resulting joint probability of extreme surge, precipitation and river discharge events. In southern Europe the probability of joint occurrence of storm surge and precipitation is relatively high due to significant flash flood hazard. In northern Europe, along the main corridor of winter storms, dependency between surges and river discharges is higher than elsewhere, with large differences between west-facing and east-facing coasts. The occurrence of compound floods in most of the Nordic countries and along the Black Sea is very unlikely. The results allow the identification of areas at risk from compound flooding. Future studies that utilize statistical and physical methods are recommended to assess interactions between surges and inland runoff at a local scale.
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Interactive discussion
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SC1: 'Study for Malmö, Sweden', Johanna Sörensen, 20 Apr 2018
- AC1: 'Reply to short comment', Dominik Paprotny, 21 Apr 2018
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RC1: 'A review of "Compound flood potential in Europe"', Anonymous Referee #1, 16 May 2018
- AC2: 'Reply to Anonymous Referee #1', Dominik Paprotny, 27 Jun 2018
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RC2: 'review report', Anonymous Referee #2, 04 Jul 2018
- AC3: 'Response to referee #2', Dominik Paprotny, 07 Aug 2018
Interactive discussion
-
SC1: 'Study for Malmö, Sweden', Johanna Sörensen, 20 Apr 2018
- AC1: 'Reply to short comment', Dominik Paprotny, 21 Apr 2018
-
RC1: 'A review of "Compound flood potential in Europe"', Anonymous Referee #1, 16 May 2018
- AC2: 'Reply to Anonymous Referee #1', Dominik Paprotny, 27 Jun 2018
-
RC2: 'review report', Anonymous Referee #2, 04 Jul 2018
- AC3: 'Response to referee #2', Dominik Paprotny, 07 Aug 2018
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Cited
26 citations as recorded by crossref.
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- Trivariate Probabilistic Assessments of the Compound Flooding Events Using the 3-D Fully Nested Archimedean (FNA) Copula in the Semiparametric Distribution Setting S. Latif & S. Simonovic 10.1007/s11269-023-03448-6
- Multivariate Analysis of Compound Flood Hazard Across Canada's Atlantic, Pacific and Great Lakes Coastal Areas F. Jalili Pirani & M. Najafi 10.1029/2022EF002655
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- Trends in Compound Flooding in Northwestern Europe During 1901–2014 P. Ganguli & B. Merz 10.1029/2019GL084220
- Coastal Flooding Caused by Extreme Coastal Water Level at the World Heritage Historic Keta City (Ghana, West Africa) E. Brempong et al. 10.3390/jmse11061144
- Trivariate Joint Distribution Modelling of Compound Events Using the Nonparametric D-Vine Copula Developed Based on a Bernstein and Beta Kernel Copula Density Framework S. Latif & S. Simonovic 10.3390/hydrology9120221
- Assessment of Community Vulnerability to Different Types of Urban Floods: A Case for Lishui City, China Q. Yang et al. 10.3390/su12197865
- Increased Extreme Coastal Water Levels Due to the Combined Action of Storm Surges and Wind Waves M. Marcos et al. 10.1029/2019GL082599
- Nonparametric Approach to Copula Estimation in Compounding The Joint Impact of Storm Surge and Rainfall Events in Coastal Flood Analysis S. Latif & S. Simonovic 10.1007/s11269-022-03321-y
- Historic Spatial Patterns of Storm-Driven Compound Events in UK Estuaries C. Lyddon et al. 10.1007/s12237-022-01115-4
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- Recent Trends in Individual and Multivariate Compound Flood Drivers in Canada's Coasts F. Jalili Pirani & M. Najafi 10.1029/2020WR027785
Dominik Paprotny
Michalis I. Vousdoukas
Oswaldo Morales-Nápoles
Sebastiaan N. Jonkman
Luc Feyen
This preprint has been withdrawn.
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