Articles | Volume 20, issue 11
https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-20-4605-2016
© Author(s) 2016. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 License.
Special issue:
https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-20-4605-2016
© Author(s) 2016. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 License.
Research article
| 
17 Nov 2016
Research article |
| 17 Nov 2016
A statistically based seasonal precipitation forecast model with automatic predictor selection and its application to central and south Asia
Lars Gerlitz
CORRESPONDING AUTHOR
GFZ German Research Centre for Geosciences, Section 5.4: Hydrology,
Telegrafenberg, 14473 Potsdam, Germany
Sergiy Vorogushyn
GFZ German Research Centre for Geosciences, Section 5.4: Hydrology,
Telegrafenberg, 14473 Potsdam, Germany
Heiko Apel
GFZ German Research Centre for Geosciences, Section 5.4: Hydrology,
Telegrafenberg, 14473 Potsdam, Germany
Abror Gafurov
GFZ German Research Centre for Geosciences, Section 5.4: Hydrology,
Telegrafenberg, 14473 Potsdam, Germany
Katy Unger-Shayesteh
GFZ German Research Centre for Geosciences, Section 5.4: Hydrology,
Telegrafenberg, 14473 Potsdam, Germany
Bruno Merz
GFZ German Research Centre for Geosciences, Section 5.4: Hydrology,
Telegrafenberg, 14473 Potsdam, Germany
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Cited
29 citations as recorded by crossref.
- Dendroclimatology in Kazakhstan B. Zubairov et al. 10.1016/j.dendro.2019.05.006
- Predicting temperature and precipitation during the flood season based on teleconnection J. Jung & H. Kim 10.1186/s40562-022-00212-3
- Identifying El Niño–Southern Oscillation influences on rainfall with classification models: implications for water resource management of Sri Lanka T. De Silva M. & G. Hornberger 10.5194/hess-23-1905-2019
- A new approach in evaluation impacts of teleconnection indices on temperature and precipitation in Iran M. Ahmadi et al. 10.1007/s00704-022-04138-w
- Variability of the Cold Season Climate in Central Asia. Part I: Weather Types and Their Tropical and Extratropical Drivers L. Gerlitz et al. 10.1175/JCLI-D-17-0715.1
- Statistical modelling of snow cover dynamics in the Central Himalaya Region, Nepal J. Weidinger et al. 10.3354/cr01518
- Variability of onset and retreat of the rainy season in mainland China and associations with atmospheric circulation and sea surface temperature Q. Cao et al. 10.1016/j.jhydrol.2017.12.026
- Forecast of seasonal water availability in Central Asia with near-real time GRACE water storage anomalies H. Apel et al. 10.1088/2515-7620/ab1681
- A Brief Review of Random Forests for Water Scientists and Practitioners and Their Recent History in Water Resources H. Tyralis et al. 10.3390/w11050910
- Statistical forecast of seasonal discharge in Central Asia using observational records: development of a generic linear modelling tool for operational water resource management H. Apel et al. 10.5194/hess-22-2225-2018
- A five-parameter Gamma-Gaussian model to calibrate monthly and seasonal GCM precipitation forecasts Z. Huang et al. 10.1016/j.jhydrol.2021.126893
- Probabilistic subseasonal precipitation forecasts using preceding atmospheric intraseasonal signals in a Bayesian perspective Y. Li et al. 10.5194/hess-26-4975-2022
- Climate informed seasonal forecast of water availability in Central Asia: State-of-the-art and decision making context L. Gerlitz et al. 10.1016/j.wasec.2020.100061
- Climate on the equilibrium line altitudes of glaciers: theoretical background behind Ahlmann'sP/Tdiagram A. OHMURA & M. BOETTCHER 10.1017/jog.2018.41
- Improved multi‐model ensemble forecasts of Iran's precipitation and temperature using a hybrid dynamical‐statistical approach during fall and winter seasons H. Najafi et al. 10.1002/joc.7148
- The asymmetric effect of different types of ENSO and ENSO Modoki on rainy season over the Yellow River basin, China M. Zhang et al. 10.1007/s00704-022-04128-y
- Evaluation of the NCEP Climate Forecast System and Its Downscaling for Seasonal Rainfall Prediction over Vietnam T. Phan-Van et al. 10.1175/WAF-D-17-0098.1
- Sensitivity of extreme precipitation in Texas to climatic cycles N. Bhatia et al. 10.1007/s00704-020-03125-3
- Reconstructed summertime (June–July) streamflow dating back to 1788 CE in the Kazakh Uplands as inferred from tree rings X. Zhao et al. 10.1016/j.ejrh.2022.101007
- GRACE observes the natural and irrigation-induced regional redistribution of water storage in Central Asia A. Gafurov et al. 10.1016/j.ejrh.2024.101994
- Climate change effects on riverbank erosion Bait community flood-prone area of Punjab, Pakistan: an application of livelihood vulnerability index D. Ahmad et al. 10.1007/s10668-022-02440-1
- Dominant controls of cold-season precipitation variability over the high mountains of Asia S. Mehmood et al. 10.1038/s41612-022-00282-2
- Does objective cluster analysis serve as a useful precursor to seasonal precipitation prediction at local scale? Application to western Ethiopia Y. Zhang et al. 10.5194/hess-22-143-2018
- Variability of the Cold Season Climate in Central Asia. Part II: Hydroclimatic Predictability L. Gerlitz et al. 10.1175/JCLI-D-18-0892.1
- Extreme Rainfall in Southern Burkina Faso, West Africa: Trends and Links to Atlantic Sea Surface Temperature M. Sougué et al. 10.3390/atmos14020284
- A seasonal forecasting procedure for reservoir inflows in Central Asia S. Dixon & R. Wilby 10.1002/rra.3506
- Impact of ENSO regimes on developing- and decaying-phase precipitation during rainy season in China Q. Cao et al. 10.5194/hess-21-5415-2017
- Development of Technology for Identification of Climate Patterns during Floods Using Global Climate Model Data with Convolutional Neural Networks J. Jung & H. Han 10.3390/w14244045
- Seasonal predictions of precipitation in the Aksu-Tarim River basin for improved water resources management H. Hartmann et al. 10.1016/j.gloplacha.2016.10.018
28 citations as recorded by crossref.
- Dendroclimatology in Kazakhstan B. Zubairov et al. 10.1016/j.dendro.2019.05.006
- Predicting temperature and precipitation during the flood season based on teleconnection J. Jung & H. Kim 10.1186/s40562-022-00212-3
- Identifying El Niño–Southern Oscillation influences on rainfall with classification models: implications for water resource management of Sri Lanka T. De Silva M. & G. Hornberger 10.5194/hess-23-1905-2019
- A new approach in evaluation impacts of teleconnection indices on temperature and precipitation in Iran M. Ahmadi et al. 10.1007/s00704-022-04138-w
- Variability of the Cold Season Climate in Central Asia. Part I: Weather Types and Their Tropical and Extratropical Drivers L. Gerlitz et al. 10.1175/JCLI-D-17-0715.1
- Statistical modelling of snow cover dynamics in the Central Himalaya Region, Nepal J. Weidinger et al. 10.3354/cr01518
- Variability of onset and retreat of the rainy season in mainland China and associations with atmospheric circulation and sea surface temperature Q. Cao et al. 10.1016/j.jhydrol.2017.12.026
- Forecast of seasonal water availability in Central Asia with near-real time GRACE water storage anomalies H. Apel et al. 10.1088/2515-7620/ab1681
- A Brief Review of Random Forests for Water Scientists and Practitioners and Their Recent History in Water Resources H. Tyralis et al. 10.3390/w11050910
- Statistical forecast of seasonal discharge in Central Asia using observational records: development of a generic linear modelling tool for operational water resource management H. Apel et al. 10.5194/hess-22-2225-2018
- A five-parameter Gamma-Gaussian model to calibrate monthly and seasonal GCM precipitation forecasts Z. Huang et al. 10.1016/j.jhydrol.2021.126893
- Probabilistic subseasonal precipitation forecasts using preceding atmospheric intraseasonal signals in a Bayesian perspective Y. Li et al. 10.5194/hess-26-4975-2022
- Climate informed seasonal forecast of water availability in Central Asia: State-of-the-art and decision making context L. Gerlitz et al. 10.1016/j.wasec.2020.100061
- Climate on the equilibrium line altitudes of glaciers: theoretical background behind Ahlmann'sP/Tdiagram A. OHMURA & M. BOETTCHER 10.1017/jog.2018.41
- Improved multi‐model ensemble forecasts of Iran's precipitation and temperature using a hybrid dynamical‐statistical approach during fall and winter seasons H. Najafi et al. 10.1002/joc.7148
- The asymmetric effect of different types of ENSO and ENSO Modoki on rainy season over the Yellow River basin, China M. Zhang et al. 10.1007/s00704-022-04128-y
- Evaluation of the NCEP Climate Forecast System and Its Downscaling for Seasonal Rainfall Prediction over Vietnam T. Phan-Van et al. 10.1175/WAF-D-17-0098.1
- Sensitivity of extreme precipitation in Texas to climatic cycles N. Bhatia et al. 10.1007/s00704-020-03125-3
- Reconstructed summertime (June–July) streamflow dating back to 1788 CE in the Kazakh Uplands as inferred from tree rings X. Zhao et al. 10.1016/j.ejrh.2022.101007
- GRACE observes the natural and irrigation-induced regional redistribution of water storage in Central Asia A. Gafurov et al. 10.1016/j.ejrh.2024.101994
- Climate change effects on riverbank erosion Bait community flood-prone area of Punjab, Pakistan: an application of livelihood vulnerability index D. Ahmad et al. 10.1007/s10668-022-02440-1
- Dominant controls of cold-season precipitation variability over the high mountains of Asia S. Mehmood et al. 10.1038/s41612-022-00282-2
- Does objective cluster analysis serve as a useful precursor to seasonal precipitation prediction at local scale? Application to western Ethiopia Y. Zhang et al. 10.5194/hess-22-143-2018
- Variability of the Cold Season Climate in Central Asia. Part II: Hydroclimatic Predictability L. Gerlitz et al. 10.1175/JCLI-D-18-0892.1
- Extreme Rainfall in Southern Burkina Faso, West Africa: Trends and Links to Atlantic Sea Surface Temperature M. Sougué et al. 10.3390/atmos14020284
- A seasonal forecasting procedure for reservoir inflows in Central Asia S. Dixon & R. Wilby 10.1002/rra.3506
- Impact of ENSO regimes on developing- and decaying-phase precipitation during rainy season in China Q. Cao et al. 10.5194/hess-21-5415-2017
- Development of Technology for Identification of Climate Patterns during Floods Using Global Climate Model Data with Convolutional Neural Networks J. Jung & H. Han 10.3390/w14244045
Saved (preprint)
Latest update: 23 Nov 2024
Short summary
Most statistically based seasonal precipitation forecast models utilize a small set of well-known climate indices as potential predictor variables. However, for many target regions, these indices do not lead to sufficient results and customized predictors are required for an accurate prediction.
This study presents a statistically based routine, which automatically identifies suitable predictors from globally gridded SST and climate variables by means of an extensive data mining procedure.
Most statistically based seasonal precipitation forecast models utilize a small set of...
Special issue