Preprints
https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-2021-570
https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-2021-570

  19 Nov 2021

19 Nov 2021

Review status: this preprint is currently under review for the journal HESS.

Technical Note: Flood frequency study using partial duration series coupled with entropy principle

Sonali Swetapadma1 and Chandra Shekhar Prasad Ojha2 Sonali Swetapadma and Chandra Shekhar Prasad Ojha
  • 1Research Scholar, Department of Civil Engineering, IIT Roorkee, Roorkee – 247667, Uttarakhand, India
  • 2Professor, Department of Civil Engineering, IIT Roorkee, Roorkee – 247667, Uttarakhand, India

Abstract. Quality discharge measurements and frequency analysis are two major prerequisites for defining a design flood. Flood frequency analysis (FFA) utilizes a comprehensive understanding of the probabilistic behavior of extreme events but has certain limitations regarding the sampling method and choice of distribution models. Entropy as a modern-day tool has found several applications in FFA, mainly in the derivation of probability distributions and their parameter estimation as per the principle of maximum entropy (POME) theory. The present study explores a new dimension to this area of research, where POME theory is applied in the partial duration series (PDS) modeling of FFA to locate the optimum threshold and the respective distribution models. The proposed methodology is applied to the Waimakariri River at the Old Highway Bridge site in New Zealand, as it has one of the best quality discharge data. The catchment also has a history of significant flood events in the last few decades. The degree of fitness of models to the exceedances is compared with the standardized statistical approach followed in literature. Also, the threshold estimated from this study is matched with some previous findings. Various return period quantiles are calculated, and their predictive ability is tested by bootstrap sampling. An overall analysis of results shows that entropy can be also be used as an effective tool for threshold identification in PDS modeling of flood frequency studies.

Sonali Swetapadma and Chandra Shekhar Prasad Ojha

Status: open (until 14 Jan 2022)

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Sonali Swetapadma and Chandra Shekhar Prasad Ojha

Sonali Swetapadma and Chandra Shekhar Prasad Ojha

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Short summary
Entropy has become an effective scientific tool of the 21st century with numerous water resources and hydrology applications. This study explores a new dimension to applying entropy. The principle of maximum entropy theory is used to locate the optimum threshold and the underlying distributions in partial duration series modeling of flood frequency analysis. Comparison of the results with some previous findings suggests the effectiveness of the proposed method.