How well do hydrological models simulate streamflow extremes and drought-to-flood transitions?

Muñoz-Castro, Eduardo; Anderson, Bailey J.; Astagneau, Paul C.; Swain, Daniel L.; Mendoza, Pablo A.; Brunner, Manuela I.

doi:10.5194/hess-30-825-2026

Articles | Volume 30, issue 3

https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-30-825-2026

© Author(s) 2026. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.

https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-30-825-2026

© Author(s) 2026. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.

Articles | Volume 30, issue 3

Research article

|

12 Feb 2026

Research article |

| 12 Feb 2026

How well do hydrological models simulate streamflow extremes and drought-to-flood transitions?

Eduardo Muñoz-Castro, Bailey J. Anderson, Paul C. Astagneau, Daniel L. Swain, Pablo A. Mendoza, and Manuela I. Brunner

Supplement

https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-30-825-2026-supplement

Data sets

Implementation of four conceptual rainfall-runoff models to simulate drought-to-flood transitions in Chile and Switzerland Eduardo Muñoz-Castro et al. https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.14803500

Links to files - The CAMELS-CL dataset C. Alvarez-Garreton et al. https://doi.org/10.1594/PANGAEA.894885

Catchment attributes and hydro-meteorological time series for large-sample studies across hydrologic Switzerland (CAMELS-CH) M. Höge et al. https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.7784633

Short summary

Flood impacts can be enhanced when they occur after droughts, yet the effectiveness of hydrological models in simulating these events remains unclear. Here, we calibrated four conceptual hydrological models across 63 catchments in Chile and Switzerland to assess their ability to detect streamflow extremes and their transitions. We show that drought-to-flood transitions are generally poorly captured, especially in semi-arid high-mountain catchments than in humid low-elevation ones.