Articles | Volume 30, issue 3
https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-30-629-2026
© Author(s) 2026. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-30-629-2026
© Author(s) 2026. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
When physics gets in the way: an entropy-based evaluation of conceptual constraints in hybrid hydrological models
Manuel Álvarez Chaves
CORRESPONDING AUTHOR
Stuttgart Center for Simulation Science, Cluster of Excellence EXC 2075, University of Stuttgart, 70569 Stuttgart, Germany
Eduardo Acuña Espinoza
Institute of Water and Environment, Karlsruhe Institute of Technology (KIT), 76131 Karlsruhe, Germany
Uwe Ehret
Institute of Water and Environment, Karlsruhe Institute of Technology (KIT), 76131 Karlsruhe, Germany
Anneli Guthke
Stuttgart Center for Simulation Science, Cluster of Excellence EXC 2075, University of Stuttgart, 70569 Stuttgart, Germany
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Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 29, 1749–1758, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-29-1749-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-29-1749-2025, 2025
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Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 29, 1749–1758, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-29-1749-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-29-1749-2025, 2025
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We propose the
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Patrick Ludwig, Florian Ehmele, Mário J. Franca, Susanna Mohr, Alberto Caldas-Alvarez, James E. Daniell, Uwe Ehret, Hendrik Feldmann, Marie Hundhausen, Peter Knippertz, Katharina Küpfer, Michael Kunz, Bernhard Mühr, Joaquim G. Pinto, Julian Quinting, Andreas M. Schäfer, Frank Seidel, and Christina Wisotzky
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Heavy precipitation in July 2021 led to widespread floods in western Germany and neighboring countries. The event was among the five heaviest precipitation events of the past 70 years in Germany, and the river discharges exceeded by far the statistical 100-year return values. Simulations of the event under future climate conditions revealed a strong and non-linear effect on flood peaks: for +2 K global warming, an 18 % increase in rainfall led to a 39 % increase of the flood peak in the Ahr river.
Susanna Mohr, Uwe Ehret, Michael Kunz, Patrick Ludwig, Alberto Caldas-Alvarez, James E. Daniell, Florian Ehmele, Hendrik Feldmann, Mário J. Franca, Christian Gattke, Marie Hundhausen, Peter Knippertz, Katharina Küpfer, Bernhard Mühr, Joaquim G. Pinto, Julian Quinting, Andreas M. Schäfer, Marc Scheibel, Frank Seidel, and Christina Wisotzky
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The flood event in July 2021 was one of the most severe disasters in Europe in the last half century. The objective of this two-part study is a multi-disciplinary assessment that examines the complex process interactions in different compartments, from meteorology to hydrological conditions to hydro-morphological processes to impacts on assets and environment. In addition, we address the question of what measures are possible to generate added value to early response management.
Elnaz Azmi, Uwe Ehret, Steven V. Weijs, Benjamin L. Ruddell, and Rui A. P. Perdigão
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Computer models should be as simple as possible but not simpler. Simplicity refers to the length of the model and the effort it takes the model to generate its output. Here we present a practical technique for measuring the latter by the number of memory visits during model execution by
Strace, a troubleshooting and monitoring program. The advantage of this approach is that it can be applied to any computer-based model, which facilitates model intercomparison.
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Short summary
This study evaluates hybrid hydrological models combining physics-based and data-driven components, using Information Theory to measure their relative contributions. When testing conceptual models with Long Short-Term Memory (LSTM) networks that adjust parameters over time, we found performance primarily comes from the data-driven component, with physics constraints adding minimal value. We propose a quantitative tool to analyse this behaviour and suggest a workflow for diagnosing hybrid models.
This study evaluates hybrid hydrological models combining physics-based and data-driven...