Articles | Volume 30, issue 19
https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-30-6189-2026
https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-30-6189-2026
Research article
 | 
05 Oct 2026
Research article |  | 05 Oct 2026

Improved seasonal hydrological forecasting for Great Britain

Mark D. Rhodes-Smith, Victoria A. Bell, Nicky Stringer, Helen Baron, Helen Davies, and Jeff Knight

Data sets

Seasonal forecast monthly statistics on single levels Copernicus Climate Change Service, Climate Data Store https://doi.org/10.24381/cds.68dd14c3

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Short summary
River flow forecasts up to three months ahead can allow early preparations for future floods and droughts. We test a new forecasting system using weather forecasts made by selecting historical weather patterns that match current conditions and running them through a simulation of Great Britain's rivers. Our tests show that this system performs particularly well in the winter and spring, in northern Scotland and in southern England. We now use this system to produce forecasts regularly.
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