Progressive groundwater decoupling may drive a shift toward shallower and faster terrestrial water cycling

Sun, Aoqi; Xu, Wenjie; Ma, Enze; Yuan, Hua; Yang, Chen

doi:10.5194/hess-30-5215-2026

Articles | Volume 30, issue 16

https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-30-5215-2026

© Author(s) 2026. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.

https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-30-5215-2026

© Author(s) 2026. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.

Articles | Volume 30, issue 16

Research article

|

19 Aug 2026

Research article |

| 19 Aug 2026

Progressive groundwater decoupling may drive a shift toward shallower and faster terrestrial water cycling

Aoqi Sun, Wenjie Xu, Enze Ma, Hua Yuan, and Chen Yang

Supplement

https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-30-5215-2026-supplement

Data sets

reedmaxwell/EcoSLIM: v1.31 (Version v1.31) L. Condon et al. https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.8371241

HillSlope with ParFlow and EcoSLIM A. Sun https://doi.org/10.6084/m9.figshare.31410108

Model code and software

HillSlope with ParFlow and EcoSLIM A. Sun https://doi.org/10.6084/m9.figshare.31410108

reedmaxwell/EcoSLIM: v1.31 (Version v1.31) L. Condon et al. https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.8371241

parflow/parflow: ParFlow Version 3.14.1 S. Smith et al. https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.16916171

Short summary

Groundwater is often viewed as a hidden reserve that supports evapotranspiration and streamflow during dry periods. We show that sustained warming and greening can weaken this buffering role. As groundwater levels decline, links between shallow and deeper stores reorganize, reducing older groundwater inputs to streams and evapotranspiration. Over time, water cycling shifts toward shallower, faster pathways, potentially lowering system resilience and predictability under long-term climate stress.