Articles | Volume 30, issue 14
https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-30-4565-2026
© Author(s) 2026. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-30-4565-2026
© Author(s) 2026. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
Research article
| 
20 Jul 2026
Research article |
| 20 Jul 2026
| 20 Jul 2026
The complex effect of climate change and urbanization on streamflow in small–medium eastern Mediterranean catchments
Yair Rinat
CORRESPONDING AUTHOR
Geological Survey of Israel, Jerusalem, 9692100, Israel
Moshe Armon
Institute of Earth Sciences, The Hebrew University of Jerusalem, Jerusalem, 91904, Israel
Efrat Morin
Institute of Earth Sciences, The Hebrew University of Jerusalem, Jerusalem, 91904, Israel
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Ellina Agayar, Moshe Armon, Michael Sprenger, and Heini Wernli
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 26, 3025–3043, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-26-3025-2026, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-26-3025-2026, 2026
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This study investigates the hydrometeorological features of the major floods of 2008, 2010, and 2020 in western Ukraine. All cases were linked to upper-level potential vorticity (PV) anomalies. We also conducted a climatological analysis of PV structure associated with 22 summer heavy precipitation events (2000–2022), highlighting their key role in determining the location and intensity of flood-inducing rainfall events in the Carpathians.
Guorong Ling, Hilla Afargan-Gerstman, and Moshe Armon
Weather Clim. Dynam., 7, 915–935, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-7-915-2026, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-7-915-2026, 2026
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This research examines how well storms that bring heavy rain to the Sahara can be predicted. Using satellite observations and ensemble weather forecasts, we show that predictability varies by season, location, and circulation pattern, with an upper limit of about ten days. These insights can improve early flood warnings and support better planning for scarce water resources in desert regions.
Talia Rosin, Francesco Marra, Marco Gabella, Urs Germann, Daniel Wolfensberger, and Efrat Morin
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2026-1800, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2026-1800, 2026
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Extreme rainfall in mountainous regions is difficult to assess as it varies strongly across space and time, and rain gauges are often too sparse to capture it. Using 9 years of radar data, we analyse summer rainfall extremes across Switzerland for different durations and areas. We show that rainfall intensity depends strongly on scale and topography, and that radar better captures local extremes, improving flood hazard assessment, as demonstrated for three recent major flood-producing storms.
Saran Aadhar, Efrat Morin, and Utkarsh Gupta
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2026-339, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2026-339, 2026
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River basins in India are often affected by flooding during the summer monsoon, putting millions of people and livelihoods at risk. Understanding the processes that cause floods is critical to minimizing flood risk. Our investigations show how rainfall (short and long-duration), surface water flow, and the specific location of the drainage area contribute to flood events in the Godavari River basin using observations and hydrological model data.
Joëlle C. Rieder, Franziska Aemisegger, Elad Dente, and Moshe Armon
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 29, 1395–1427, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-29-1395-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-29-1395-2025, 2025
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The Sahara was wetter in the past and may become wetter in the future. Lake remnants are evidence of the desert’s wetter past. If the Sahara gets wetter in the future, these lakes may serve as a water resource. However, it is unclear how these lakes get filled and how moisture is carried into the desert and converted into rain in the first place. Therefore, we examine processes currently leading to the filling of a dry lake in the Sahara, which can help assess future water availability.
Talia Rosin, Francesco Marra, and Efrat Morin
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 28, 3549–3566, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-3549-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-3549-2024, 2024
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Knowledge of extreme precipitation probability at various spatial–temporal scales is crucial. We estimate extreme precipitation return levels at multiple scales (10 min–24 h, 0.25–500 km2) in the eastern Mediterranean using radar data. We show our estimates are comparable to those derived from averaged daily rain gauges. We then explore multi-scale extreme precipitation across coastal, mountainous, and desert regions.
Ellina Agayar, Franziska Aemisegger, Moshe Armon, Alexander Scherrmann, and Heini Wernli
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 2441–2459, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-2441-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-2441-2024, 2024
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This study presents the results of a climatological investigation of extreme precipitation events (EPEs) in Ukraine for the period 1979–2019. During all seasons EPEs are associated with pronounced upper-level potential vorticity (PV) anomalies. In addition, we find distinct seasonal and regional differences in moisture sources. Several extreme precipitation cases demonstrate the importance of these processes, complemented by a detailed synoptic analysis.
Shai Abir, Hamish A. McGowan, Yonatan Shaked, Hezi Gildor, Efrat Morin, and Nadav G. Lensky
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 24, 6177–6195, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-24-6177-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-24-6177-2024, 2024
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Understanding air–sea heat exchange is vital for studying ocean dynamics. Eddy covariance measurements over the Gulf of Eilat revealed a 3.22 m yr-1 evaporation rate, which is inconsistent with bulk formulae estimations in stable atmospheric conditions, requiring bulk formulae to be revisited in these environments. The surface fluxes have a net cooling effect on the gulf water on an annual mean (-79 W m-2), balanced by a strong exchange flux between the Red Sea and the Gulf of Eilat.
Haggai Eyal, Moshe Armon, Yehouda Enzel, and Nadav G. Lensky
Earth Surf. Dynam., 11, 547–574, https://doi.org/10.5194/esurf-11-547-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/esurf-11-547-2023, 2023
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Extracting paleoenvironmets from sedimentologic and geomorphic records is a main goal in Earth sciences. We study a chain of processes connecting causative Mediterranean cyclones, coeval floods, storm waves generated by mesoscale funneled wind, and coastal gravel transport. This causes northward dispersion of gravel along the modern Dead Sea coast, which has also persisted since the late Pleistocene, resulting in beach berms and fan deltas always being deposited north of channel mouths.
Sella Nevo, Efrat Morin, Adi Gerzi Rosenthal, Asher Metzger, Chen Barshai, Dana Weitzner, Dafi Voloshin, Frederik Kratzert, Gal Elidan, Gideon Dror, Gregory Begelman, Grey Nearing, Guy Shalev, Hila Noga, Ira Shavitt, Liora Yuklea, Moriah Royz, Niv Giladi, Nofar Peled Levi, Ofir Reich, Oren Gilon, Ronnie Maor, Shahar Timnat, Tal Shechter, Vladimir Anisimov, Yotam Gigi, Yuval Levin, Zach Moshe, Zvika Ben-Haim, Avinatan Hassidim, and Yossi Matias
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 26, 4013–4032, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-26-4013-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-26-4013-2022, 2022
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Early flood warnings are one of the most effective tools to save lives and goods. Machine learning (ML) models can improve flood prediction accuracy but their use in operational frameworks is limited. The paper presents a flood warning system, operational in India and Bangladesh, that uses ML models for forecasting river stage and flood inundation maps and discusses the models' performances. In 2021, more than 100 million flood alerts were sent to people near rivers over an area of 470 000 km2.
Francesco Marra, Moshe Armon, and Efrat Morin
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 26, 1439–1458, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-26-1439-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-26-1439-2022, 2022
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We present a new method for quantifying the probability of occurrence of extreme rainfall using radar data, and we use it to examine coastal and orographic effects on extremes. We identify three regimes, directly related to precipitation physical processes, which respond differently to these forcings. The methods and results are of interest for researchers and practitioners using radar for the analysis of extremes, risk managers, water resources managers, and climate change impact studies.
Yoav Ben Dor, Francesco Marra, Moshe Armon, Yehouda Enzel, Achim Brauer, Markus Julius Schwab, and Efrat Morin
Clim. Past, 17, 2653–2677, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-17-2653-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-17-2653-2021, 2021
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Laminated sediments from the deepest part of the Dead Sea unravel the hydrological response of the eastern Mediterranean to past climate changes. This study demonstrates the importance of geological archives in complementing modern hydrological measurements that do not fully capture natural hydroclimatic variability, which is crucial to configure for understanding the impact of climate change on the hydrological cycle in subtropical regions.
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Short summary
In the coming decades Mediterranean floods are expected to change due to increased urbanization and climate change. We simulate floods under different conditions and show that future rainfall will likely reduce flood magnitudes, but increased urbanization will make them higher. Flood intensification is more pronounced at upstream sections and when soil moisture is high. As future flood trends may change between different regions further research is needed to cope with upcoming challenges.
In the coming decades Mediterranean floods are expected to change due to increased urbanization...
