Hydrology and Earth System Sciences
Hydrology and Earth System Sciences
HESS
Articles | Volume 30, issue 13
Articles | Volume 30, issue 13
https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-30-4271-2026
© Author(s) 2026. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-30-4271-2026
© Author(s) 2026. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
Articles | Volume 30, issue 13
Research article
 | 
08 Jul 2026
Research article |  | 08 Jul 2026

Disentangling the key drivers of water balance in Central Asia's Lake Balkhash: A relative contribution assessment

Ruibiao Yang, Jinglu Wu, Guojing Gan, and Ru Guo

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Short summary
To understand what drives the changing water levels of Central Asia's Lake Balkhash, we used advanced computer models to separate the impacts of climate and human activities over the past century. We found that the lake's recent stability is a fragile illusion. Severe water losses from human use are currently hidden by a temporary increase in rain and melting glaciers. As these favorable climate conditions fade, the lake faces a rapid decline without urgent water management changes.
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