Disentangling the key drivers of water balance in Central Asia's Lake Balkhash: A relative contribution assessment

Yang, Ruibiao; Wu, Jinglu; Gan, Guojing; Guo, Ru

doi:10.5194/hess-30-4271-2026

Articles | Volume 30, issue 13

https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-30-4271-2026

© Author(s) 2026. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.

https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-30-4271-2026

© Author(s) 2026. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.

Articles | Volume 30, issue 13

Research article

|

08 Jul 2026

Research article |

| 08 Jul 2026

Disentangling the key drivers of water balance in Central Asia's Lake Balkhash: A relative contribution assessment

Ruibiao Yang, Jinglu Wu, Guojing Gan, and Ru Guo

Supplement

https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-30-4271-2026-supplement

Data sets

GLC_FCS30D: the first global 30-m land-cover dynamic monitoring product with fine classification system from 1985 to 2022 Liangyun Liu et al. https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.8239305

Randolph Glacier Inventory - A Dataset of Global Glacier Outlines RGI Consortium https://doi.org/10.5067/F6JMOVY5NAVZ

Copernicus Global Digital Elevation Model European Space Agency https://doi.org/10.5069/G9028PQB

Short summary

To understand what drives the changing water levels of Central Asia's Lake Balkhash, we used advanced computer models to separate the impacts of climate and human activities over the past century. We found that the lake's recent stability is a fragile illusion. Severe water losses from human use are currently hidden by a temporary increase in rain and melting glaciers. As these favorable climate conditions fade, the lake faces a rapid decline without urgent water management changes.