Articles | Volume 30, issue 2
https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-30-371-2026
https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-30-371-2026
Research article
 | 
26 Jan 2026
Research article |  | 26 Jan 2026

Probabilistic hierarchical interpolation and interpretable neural network configurations for flood prediction

Mostafa Saberian, Vidya Samadi, and Ioana Popescu

Data sets

Probabilistic Hierarchical Interpolation and Interpretable Configuration for Flood Prediction M. Saberian and V. Samadi https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.13343364

Model code and software

NeuralForecast: User friendly state-of-the-art neural forecasting models, PyCon Salt Lake City, Utah, US K. G. Olivares et al. https://github.com/Nixtla/neuralforecast

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Short summary
Recent progress in NN (neural network) accelerated improvements in the performance of catchment modeling. Yet flood modeling remains a very difficult task. Focusing on two headwater streams, we developed N-HiTS (Neural Hierarchical Interpolation for Time Series Forecasting) and N-BEATS (Network-Based Expansion Analysis for Interpretable Time Series Forecasting) models and benchmarked them with LSTM (long short-term memory) to predict flooding. N-HiTS and N-BEATS outperformed LSTM for flood predictions. We demonstrated how the proposed models can be augmented with an uncertainty approach to predict flooding that is interpretable without considerable loss in accuracy.
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