Evolution of nonstationary hydrological drought characteristics in the UK under warming

Jha, Srinidhi; Barker, Lucy J.; Hannaford, Jamie; Tanguy, Maliko

doi:10.5194/hess-30-2685-2026

Articles | Volume 30, issue 9

https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-30-2685-2026

© Author(s) 2026. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.

https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-30-2685-2026

© Author(s) 2026. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.

Articles | Volume 30, issue 9

Research article

|

08 May 2026

Research article |

| 08 May 2026

Evolution of nonstationary hydrological drought characteristics in the UK under warming

Srinidhi Jha, Lucy J. Barker, Jamie Hannaford, and Maliko Tanguy

Supplement

https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-30-2685-2026-supplement

Data sets

Hydrological projections for the UK, based on UK Climate Projections 2018 (UKCP18) data, from the Enhanced Future Flows and Groundwater (eFLaG) project J. Hannaford et al. https://doi.org/10.5285/1bb90673-ad37-4679-90b9-0126109639a9

CHESS-SCAPE: Future projections of meteorological variables at 1 km resolution for the United Kingdom 1980-2080 derived from UK Climate Projections 2018 E. L. Robinson et al. https://doi.org/10.5285/8194b416cbee482b89e0dfbe17c5786c

Short summary

The influence of climate change on drought in the UK has gained attention recently. However, a probabilistic assessment of temperature’s nonstationary influences on hydrological drought characteristics, which could provide key insights into future risks and uncertainties, has not been conducted. This study evaluates changes across seasons and warming scenarios, finding that rare droughts may become more severe, while frequent summer droughts are shorter but more intense.