Hydrology and Earth System Sciences
Hydrology and Earth System Sciences
HESS
Articles | Volume 30, issue 9
Articles | Volume 30, issue 9
https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-30-2637-2026
© Author(s) 2026. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-30-2637-2026
© Author(s) 2026. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
Articles | Volume 30, issue 9
Research article
 | 
06 May 2026
Research article |  | 06 May 2026

Return period analysis of weakly non-stationary processes with trends

Giulio Calvani and Paolo Perona

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Short summary
Traditional analysis of extremes often relies on complex tools when the statistics change over time. We developed a novel, efficient framework based on a maximum return period change over a specific timeframe. Simple formulas are derived to determine the variation in average frequency and magnitude of events. The approach has minor approximations compared to more complex methods, thus providing a reliable tool for practitioners to forecast risk assessment under changing environmental conditions.
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